e-Nagar

July 20, 2005

emerging im-balance (borrowing-savings)

Filed under: Thoughts — pegasus @ 11:10 AM

Traditionally it is expected that the households should be net savers pumping money into the banking and govt. bonds. This money in-turn is used by banks to back successful enterprises creating wealth/employment and by the govt. to create infrastructure or a ground for further growth of the nation.

The peculiar trend is emerging in India nowadays.

With the growth of easy EMI, house/car/appliances/and even foreign vacation loans, the average Indian household has become a net borrower. They have huge credit card dues (that includes me too) and loans for almost every planned and unplanned assets they own.

Look at all the IT giants and growing companies. They have hardly borrowed anything from the banking system, instead are sitting on loads of cash/reserves which they are clueless about how to deploy. Most acquisitions and expansions which you hear about nowadays are funded by cash flow/internals.

Govt. of India borrows tons of funds from the market at very high interest rates. At last glance it was paying 9% (tax free) on PPF (which roughly translates to 11% when the banks give me only 5% on savings) to pay for the huge bureaucracy and the unviable PSU.

Fiscal Deficits

Filed under: Thoughts — pegasus @ 10:32 AM

Fiscal deficits are like obesity. You can see your weight rising on the scale and your clothing size increasing, but there is no sense of urgency in dealing with the problem.
-Martin Feldstein

The fiscal deficit was as high as 10% of GDP in 2001-2002 and the govt. debt is more than 85% of the GDP

The questions that come to one’s mind when these issues crop up are:
1) Should the fiscal deficits of state and centre considered together or separately are sustainable?
2) Whether these governments are solvent.
3) Whether the presence of high levels of structural fiscal deficits has constrained the usability of fiscal policy as a tool of stabilization in respect of output as well as prices;
4) Whether there is need to formulate rules and targets to stabilize debt and deficits, and how these targets should be derived; and
5) Whether fiscal deficits have crowded out private investment by putting pressure on interest rates, thereby adversely affecting growth.
6) Is the govt. issuing fresh bond to payoff for the interest incurred in servicing the old ones or it is issuing fresh bonds for infrastructure and development?

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