1. I expect that Coal India limited should be listing at around 290/- (18% premium for HNI, 25% for retail). The stock should do well because it is going to be included in Nifty and Sensex… so many mutual funds and portfolio managers would be forced to buy it.
2. After seeing what happened on last thursday, I intend to stay away from Futures and options for a while. Just 30 minutes before the monthly closing of the options/futures, some traders forced the market down by selective high volume trades.
3. I think my fav strategy is back and this time with leverage….
i recommend buy 27th jan Tata Motors DVR futures contract… and short the Tata motors contract for the same period….
Assumption: the spread will reduce over time from 37% now. unfortunately the volume is too low as dvr was added to the fno segment last week only.
4. I did a stupid transaction 3 years ago… Invest in tax saving ELSS. Now that the lock-in period is over, I am liquidating them. I have already liquidated 1/3 of my mutual funds portfolio yesterday.
5. I don’t see myself investing actively till Feb 2011. This is partly because some personal financial commitments have sapped my liquidity and partly because I believe that outlook of the market is completely changes itself every quarter. At present the market has reached its optimal level and would only oscillate (more downwards than upwards)
Coal India was beautifully timed and thought out… the sad bit is still retain is not getting what they want – a 100% allotment.. cause that should really inspire the small man to enter the mkts without a leverage cost.
i was expecting 295 to 300 from the first assumption of 10% above.
i am planning to ofload at least 50% of my allotment above 345-350 what do u think
once the dust settles this will behave like sjvn and engineers and the govt will milk it like ongc
I think markets should be reviewed every half month also i see 22500 to 23500 peak if qe assumptions fructify.. what say u?
i was also having thoughts to clean up my mf portfolios, thanks for the cue
Comment by Prax — November 5, 2010 @ 1:11 PM
what do u think abt the oil co etc second 5% disinvestment stocks ? worth the buy now because of the pre ipo bump up
i hear all talk about split to ongc
Comment by Prax — November 5, 2010 @ 1:13 PM
http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/market-outlook/how-will-qe2-benefit-india-uday-kotak-bhansali-comment_496842.html
interesting arguments
Comment by Prax — November 5, 2010 @ 1:29 PM
@prax…
come on man… you must have made 22k on a 100k investment in 2 weeks time… and still you are not satisfied!!!!!
the video has some interesting arguments, but it had more opinions but research facts.
However i would recommend you to do atleast a partial profit booking because 350+ would mean the market is becoming irrational.
in the next 15 days or so.. several companies would be releasing their quarterly… the market would greately depend on those results. but still i believe that upsides is limited (but i can be wrong)
about oil: i remember doing a indepth research (which means reading the annual report completely, oil market etc.) only to realize that irrespective of the oil prices, reserves etc. the oil companies will make only what the govt allows them to. when oil was in the peak, ONGC was subsidizing the govt… at considerable loss to the investors…. these stocks are too much regulated for me to form a long term opinion.
however i recently did an analysis for Powergrip (FPO opening tuesday onwards)… it looks like a good bet.. low risk, stable earnings.
at 95/- I should be surprised if i make less than 5k.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 6, 2010 @ 9:35 AM
i am satisfied .. i was when it touched 300.. held back proft taking then cause of the huge upsurge … will do trrow i guess
on oil, i came to the same conclusion without reading annual report … that is a sad fact , and is also practiced in other countries .. eu taxes oil just like india but the the worst thing is that the upa govt is arbitrary and doesnt even give tax rebate to the small shareholders holding ongc which is plain unfair
Powergrid ?
in any case the govt has a simple plan to reward the small investor /urban folk pre elections…
in any case it hasnt much choice , fisc deficit/ current ac deficit is peaking above what india faced in the 90s when mms was the fm
Comment by Prax — November 7, 2010 @ 2:00 AM
join this group stocksstreet@googlegroups.com
you regularly find a lot of market research (more poor than good quality) on almost all sectors
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 7, 2010 @ 9:03 AM