Traditionally I used a rule of thumb that 1.5k profit on 100k would be the bare minimum that I should be expecting. However yesterday I was trying to recalculate this figure. Here are the workings for 2L application size.

1. Lost Interest @ 8% for half a month. (usually it takes 12 days to get the refund and 18 day for the sales proceeds on the allotment. = INR 666/-
2. Closing of FD. Usually I park my excess funds in a FD scheme and liquidate them to apply for IPO and then after the allotment I have to reapply to a FD at a much lower rate. @1% = INR 2000/-
3. ASBA: If you are applying via ASBA the savings interest @3.5% = 291/- (profit)

So my cost of funds are: 2,375/-.

1. Risk Premium: The biggest risk in IPO market is that if one applies in a bad issue, he/she can expect a substantial allotment and then the IPO would open below the allotment price. However in case of a good issue, even a 2,00,000/- application does not guarantee allotment. As a rule of thumb, people investing in equity market expect a minimum of 15% return on investment (against 8% in FD). Hence the bare minimum risk premium would be 7% for 15 days or about 500/-
2. Management expense: An individual spends usually an hour researching about the issue, calling up friends to know their opinions, TV, newspaper, internet charges etc. Plus times spend in filling up the application and arranging for the funds. 100/- would be a reasonable compensation for this effort. (Please note this is to compensate you for the fact that some time is also spend researching the bad issues)

Total cost: 2,975/-

Please note that my biggest expense is the cost of breaking the Fixed Deposit. This would change from individual to individual

The reason why I am writing this post is that it in retrospect of issues like Punjab Sind etc. I believe that it might be advisable for me to stay out of Tata Steel FPO and other issues

History has taught us that booms are followed by a bust. Yet every time when the Sensex zooms up, experts say this time it is different. Today the market closed at above 20K figures, so I went ahead to research why this week was chosen by so many promoters. Here is the list:

1. Most investors go for the relative valuations. i.e. if the PE in the industry is 20, and the IPO is at 17, its fairly priced. With stock market at 20k, promoters are getting a good price.
2. 2 year long bear run has made many firms desperate for capital. Hence they want to cash out before the mood changes bearish/cautious.
3. Coal-India. The interesting thing about all these IPOs is that it gives investors ample time to invest the money, wait for a day or two before selling the shares, another 3 days before the money is back in their accounts and ready for investing in Coal India. Now if a company does not go for listing now, it will have to wait for 5-6 weeks before those who invested in Coal India would be ready to invest in that IPO. Who knows where the market would be heading by then.
4. shraadha: September 24 to 7th October is considered inauspicious for any major purchases. No wonder all the IPOs were bunched so close together.
5. I recently discovered that any firm hitting the IPO market after 30th Sptember, would have to publish its Q2 results. No one wonder promoters with inside information want to cash out before they publish any disappointing results.

Usually I share my analysis for important issues. Unfortunately this time there are too many of them for me to publish my research. All I can say is that I did invest 2,00,000/- in Career Point IPO with the belief that I won’t be allotted more than 6-12k worth of shares. So the downside risk is minimal.

2. Not only the company is new, but also the promoter has no track record of managing a publicly listed company. so the uncertainity and risks are high. Even the company appointed auditors were uncomfortable with the fact that the top management paid itself 5.1Cr out of the total salary expenses of 8.1Cr. They felt that for a loss making company this level of remuneration is too high.

3. Phase 1 of the company got operational in July 2009, Phase 2 in March 2010 which brings the entire installed capacity to 160MW/annum. The company has order books 1000 cr or 170MW of which only 171cr/31MW is executed. So this brings the utilization factor of about 40%. Now the question is why would a company go for expansion of another 100MW before it is able to fully utlize its existing capacity or has received orders which would help it do so.

4. Indian listed companies which have invested heavily in solar energy are Websol Energy, Moser Baer and XL Telecom. Unfortunately none of them have done too well. Also globaly there is an oversupply of solar cell manufacturing capability.

Bad ipos with poor fundamentals being subscribed is according to me a harbinger of a major crash/correction.
I recently wrote an article about Gujarat Pipav port. IndoSolar is also another IPO which falls in the same category. I just hope it gets oversubscribed, which means that I should short NIFTY in a big way.

Visa confirmed it would proceed with a public offering this spring. The company hopes to raise $18.8 billion, making it America’s biggest IPO. Visa takes fees from credit-card transactions;

Isn’t it odd that the in a time when the entire world is facing Credit Crisis, loan defaults are at an all time high, VISA (which makes all its money from Credit Cards) is confident that it can launch the biggest IPO in American history. Maybe it proves that the present crisis cannot scare off the companies with sound fundamentals.

PS: the default risk is borne entirely by the company issuing credit cards and not VISA. Hence the company could take this audacious step.

Who is the greatest magician? David Copperfield? P.C. Sorcar? There is a new extremely talented magician. In specific, he can (to use a term favored by magicians) “vanish” the law and transform any amount of money as many times as necessary in four months. However, his little (or not-so-little) tricks are as susceptible to deconstruction as those of any other magician’s and can be broken down into sleight of hand (also called prestidigitation orléger de main), misdirection, deception, collusion with a member of the audience, apparatus with secret mechanisms, mirrors, and other tried and tested trickery. Subject to the caveat of a statutory warning (“This trick can be performed only by him or those who share the same surname and should not be attempted by others”). Here’s how to do it:
Step 1: Float a shell company (i.e., a company that exists on paper, is a legal entity but does not have any economic activity). Name the shell company XYZ Ltd. Paid-up capital Rs1 lakh only.
Step 2: Increase the share capital of the shell company from Rs1 lakh to Rs1,000 crore by passing a resolution.
Step 3: Another shell company of the magician, say ABC Ltd, and a listed associate, say PQR Ltd, each invest in the shell company XYZ Ltd. These are nothing but book entries, the financial equivalent of magic.
Step 4: Immediately apply to the court for the merger of XYZ with DEF. The reason for the merger as stated in the application “XYZ has put in considerable efforts in acquiring necessary technical and manpower skills, which are ancillary to the business of DEF which can take benefits of this specialized skill sets and technology available with XYZ to undertake mega power projects and implement them more efficiently and successfully.” This “expertise” has been acquired by the shell company within days of increasing the capital.
The real reason is to comply with regulatory guidelines supposedly designed to prevent fraudulent transactions, but which actually aid and abet them. This relates to recognizing the minimum capital brought in before a public issue as promoters’ contribution. The promoters’ contribution would have to be at many times the face value otherwise. A merger sanctioned by the court qualifies as promoter capital, which it would not have otherwise. The unsuspecting court allows the merger, since both the companies are private companies not knowing that there is no expertise involved except that of manipulating the market for a public offering of shares at a premium of 45 times within a period of four months. The merger is sanctioned.
Step 5: Millions of shares of PQR are allotted to the owners of the shell company, XYZ, and ABC called a Project. (The word ‘project’ could only refer to multiplying money many times in four months.)
Step 6: Engage top-notch intermediaries for a gigantic public issue. Select rumors and stock market manipulation push up the price of all shares in the same industry (there are not many) to dizzy heights to justify the premium and ensure subscription. Advertise aggressively and hijack the caller ring tone of captive telecom customers without their consent to play the advertisement.
Step 7: Engage a top-notch lawyer to obtain a blanket gag order from the highest court against various  petitions  in  various  courts.
Step 8: Get the issue subscribed and have it quoted at a further premium to the initial public offering (IPO) price in grey market operations.
Step 9: Say “Oops” and make pious statements of long-term returns when the market crashes.
And all this is within the “law”!!
Where are all the investor protector forums and champions?

Looking at this BSNL, the state owned Telecom Giant which has a huge fixed line, cellular, broadband and now IPTV business valuation at $100 Billion, looks cheep.
After all BSNL has the more infrastructure than any of them can even handle.
Also while all the other companies are creating SPV and hiving out tower business to keep depreciation cost to eat into their profitability, BSNL’s management inherited a nation wide infrastructure which is already depreciated to zero value.
Not only this, BSNL used to get as much as Rs 3,200 Cr INR p.a. from its competition as Access Deficit Charges to fund rural telephony and build infrastructure.

So essentially in a capital intensive operations like tele communications, BSNL is several years ahead of other players. Had it been under private control and had half the work-force, I won’t even bat an eye lid if their operations were evaluated at even $200 Billion.

But the question remains is India prepared for BSNL IPO?
SEBI laws force the company to offer a minimum of 10% of the shares for the public offering. Out of this 10%, atleast 30% has to be reserved for the Retail Investors. And going by the history of all IPO of the Public Companies, another 3-5% would be reserved for babus and government employees. So essentially BSNL has to raise some 3.5 Billion Dollars from the retail investors. (or 460 Billion INR).
Not a large sum, considering that India is a Trillion Dollar Economy and household saving rate is close to 30%. But the problem is that Government has put a cap of 100k INR for investments by small investors. So BSNL needs to entice about 4.6 Million investors to invest in the company.

Getting a million people to pay for a 50p candy is a big Marketing task. So consider how big a task is convincing 4.6million people to invest 0.1Million INR each… and that too within 5 days.
Companies like DLF, ICICI, and Relaince Power have tried all tricks. (5% cash discount, option of payment in installments (3 in case of ICICI FPO)) and yet their mega issues are barely subscribed. Sahara Group (one of the India’s largest conglomerate) is forced to carve its business to lots of smaller entities and break the Big IPO into several smaller ones (Its infrastructure IPO is expected to hit soon) SBI was forced for an rights issue because there was no way it could raise the kind of money it needed without dumping the shares at a throw away price. The problem is that Indians have money (reliance is raising billions of dollars every minute), but the laws are preventing them being channelized efficiently. The Corporate India badly needs funds to fuel the growth and boom which we are facing. With the curb in the External Commercial Borrowing (USD loans) and because of the high handedness of Indian banks, they do not have too many options.

I do not know whether India need a maverick who can expand the market and make India ready for the Mega Issues or should we keep our fingers crossed and pray for the day when SEBI would increase the limit on investments we make? But I do know that India may run out of steam if the Companies cannot raise funds fast enough.

India is a booming economy and as the companies expand their operations, they need more and more of capital to fund it. Sometimes the company is able to raise these funds by issuing bonds, taking loans from Banks, internal cash flow etc. but often when the company is expanding exponentially its advisable to issue a fresh set of equity and raise funds by selling it. This could be done via Rights or via FPO.

FPO: Further public offering:
Its much like an IPO, but its an IPO of an already listing company.

Concerns of FPO:
Usually people accuse the promoters/management of a company raising money through FPO of diluting the equity and not rewarding the shareholders adequately.
But if the management is good, then the reality is just the opposite.
an FPO usually happens when the stock price is at all time high. So in reality the FPO induces a stickiness in the price. (People rarely like to book losses, esp in a good company.)
Secondly the funds raised only enables the company to continue its exponential growth and hence benefiting the stake holders (both post and pre-fpo)
Thirdly the very fact an outsider is ready to pay the price for the share is a display of the company’s strong fundamentals.
So an FPO is actually a good thing for the minority stock holders.

Rights Issue:
Its is almost like a FPO i.e.:
1. Fresh equity of an already listing company is raised.
2. The fresh equity is always at a discount from the prevailing market rate (except a rare case where the promoter issues rights share instead of warrants to raise his holding)

However the only difference is that:
1. in the rights issue, only the existing share holders are allowed to subscribe. So the shareholding pattern does not get significantly altered.
2. The allotment would be in proportion to the existing shareholding pattern on the record date. So one does not have to worry about over subscription and hence no/low allotment.
3. The FPO is usually at the prevailing rates (or at a 5% discount) so that the existing shareholder’s interests do not get hurt. But the rights issue is usually a significant discount from the prevailing market rate to encourage subscription and also enable the existing share holders to save taxes by booking paper losses.
4. This discount in prices leads to a significant fall in the share price of the company (post record date)… (but now since the investors have more shares, their wealth does not alter) And this fall gives room for booking of paper losses and getting tax shields.
5. But this introduces a downside. If a company issues a rights issue (at a significant discount) then the existing share holders have to invest in the company, else they will suffer a significant dilution of stakes and capital losses.

Usually the Rights issue is marginally under subscribed because some of the minority share holders are not able to submit their applications in time. There it is advised that who ever subscribes to the rights issue, should apply for slightly more than the guaranteed amounts and benefit from it.

PS: I have deliberately omitted all equations and charts. Please refer to investopedia for details.

Pros
1) Reliance has always proved to be a goldmine for the investors and in the long run, always delivered superior returns. Hence its definitely a buy.
2) Retail Investors will get shares alloted at a 20/- Discount (4.6%) as compared to QIB.
3) Retail investors have an option to pay only 115/- (about 1/4) of the application money upfront.
4) Gray market premium for every such application is 7800/- (per Lakh)
5) The company has 13 ongoing projects that the company is developing have a combined planned installed capacity of 28,200MW. (largest in the country)

So it would be advisable for retail investors to apply for 225 shares, which has a bid value of Rs.96,750 (and an upfront payment of 25875)

Concerns:
Livemint has analyzed the prospectus and raised some valid points.
The company has no trackrecord, no revenue generation operations as of now. Even if everything goes as per target, the first plant would be operational by December 2009, and the last of the proposed plant would be commissioned in 2016. So all the hype is based on the future performance and how efficiently Anil can implement the project. However the present track record does not seem very encouraging.
1) The 300MW Butibori project is already behind schedule and the government, while giving an earlier extension, had said it wouldn’t allow any further extensions.
2) The memorandum of understanding (MoU) for the 1,200MW Shahapur project expired last April.
3) The company has requested for an extension of the deadline for the submission of the project implementation schedule for the 3,960MW coal-fired Madhya Pradesh power project.

Contrarian Approach:
Fundamentals does not seem to be the only factor around this issue. Also, because of the sheer size of the issue and prevailing volatility, there is a slight chance that the issue might get less than 160,000 retail applications. In that event, Reliance Power will be oversubscribed less than 4 times and will have to issue partially paid shares. And for the first 30 days you will be amongst those fortunate few who will actually be holding tradable shares.
So watch out for this trend. If this seems to happen, then I would recommend you to pay not the min 115/- per share, but the full 430/-.
This strategy would really pay off if you have multiple accounts (through spouse/family). So you could apply for few partially paid shares and few fully paid shares and get the best of both the worlds.

This is a classic issue which tells us exactly what are the tell tale signs of a bad IPO.
1) The factory has been operational since 1991, and still its growth and performance has been below average. No wonder a share of face value 10/- is going for ipo at 12/- Last year was the first time the company made a profit >1cr.
2) The objective of the IPO is to raise about Rs 26.2 crore to part finance the proposed Rs 500 crore greenfield one million tonne integrated cement plant in Jharkhand. Can someone tell me from where is the rest 474 crore coming?
3) Promoters are offloading 49% stake in the company. They might as well sell it the entire company off, after all Cement industry is on boom and Ambuja Cement (sensex stock) and L & T cement (another blue chip) actually did that recently.

4) The company boasts that it has made a profit of 1.14 Crore (on a proposed market capitalization of 53cr resulting in an EPS of < Rs 1.) but you have to read its balance sheet to realize that this profit was partly because of a trading profit of over 4 crore. (Now this confuses me, should i categorize this company as a trading firm or as a manufacturing firm?)

5) One should not forget that the profitability of the company is partly due to the scarcity of cement and high prices.. so consistency is not guaranteed, infact that company has a track record of making losses and has a meager revenue of 26 Crore.

6) The company has over 90 crore in debt (a sum equal to almost 4 years of revenue)…. i wonder if even the banks can give them one extra penny.

7) The company says the IPO is to enable its backward integration into clinker… but tell me why would you make 100s of cr of fresh investment in a raw material plant to save 1-2 pennies on your annual revenue of 20cr. This defies all logic and commercial prudence!

In short this issue is the fastest way to penury. BTW the reason for this post is that MoneyControl and several other yellow journalists have assigned 3 star rating to this issue and even ICICI has recommended people to apply.

So my strategy in any IPO was
1) To do fundamental research about the future prospects.
2) read the broker’s advice.
3) see the market response.
if 2 out of these 3 parameters gave me a positive response, I would go ahead, (and since I a advice to a lot of my friends that means an investment of atleast 10L) else I would wait and watch for the next IPO to come. In the past 2 years, this time tested strategy has never failed me (except when I got pure unlucky and the issue was so much over subscribed that I got my full 1L refund)

However this strategy seems to be failing in recent days.
I felt CCCL (consolidated construction company ltd) was a good company to invest in, but most of the brokers seem to advise me against it (they cited the fact that it is aggressively priced, and the intentions of promoter is dubious… only recently he issued himself a large number of shares at a throw away price of 10/- per share… then the company pays its parent holding company a sum of 20 million INR p.a. for the royalty on the trade mark.. etc. etc.) also till the penultimate day, the issue was barely subscribed.
Since 2 of the 3 parameters were against me, I gave it a pass… just to realize that all the bids came on the last day… CCCL saw more bids then Koutons (which was a darling of the investors)

So clearly, I need to develop an alternate strategy…. what is your strategy for IPOs?

Strengths:
1) Koutons looks like an attractive company with over a 1000 company managed stores and 18 manufacturing units.
2) If I compare its pricing with Raymonds and other garment companies with COFO (company owned franchise operated) retail centers, the pricing looks attractive.
3) By designing, manufacturing, distribution and as well as sales under the same flagship, the company is able to cut a lot of costs.
4) Huge sales per store due to hefty discounts offered by the stores.

Weakness:
1) I doubt weather the COFO model can work in the long run. Opening up manufacturing as well as retail outlets needs huge capital investments and hence limits the company’s ability to expand fast, as well as react to the changing market scenario.
2) Its unlikely that the company will be able to distribute from the multibrand shops and malls. This shuts it off from a major business opportunity and capitalize on the retail revolution.
3) INVENTORY TROUBLE: against a sales of Rs 402.40 crore, the inventory stood at Rs 373.84 crore. That is a whooping 340 days of inventory. In garment/fashion industry, you cannot stock for 340 days… primarily because the kind of stock which is sold, depends on the season.
4) Low Brand Value: Kouton’s stores only stock their own brands and perennial 70% discounts have completely eroded its brand value. This will prevent the company to move up the value chain.

Analysis:
I am very skeptical about the Company owned retail model. Its primarily because it involves huge capital investments, inventory problems and limits the enterprise’s ability to survive a business cycles. The company has been growing at a rapid pace, and if you are bullish about retail industry, then this might be a good company to invest in. But I would try to be away from a company who maintains 340 days of inventory and pushes sales by offering 70% discounts all year round.

Pros:
1) PGCIL (power grid corporation of India Ltd) is the country’s principal power transmission company and Mini-Ratna.

2) Since I believe the infrastructure esp. power is going to drive India’s second phase of development, this company is well poised to benefit from it. It owns and operates almost all of the nation’s interstate and inter-region transmission systems. (61,875 km of transmission line and 106 substations) Last year about 298 billion units were transmitted through their infrastructure (about 45% of the power generated).

3) This company has no competitors and even in the next 10-15 years, I do not foresee any other infrastructure company (indian or foreign) to pose a threat. This is primarily because Power grid has acquired a lot of land for the transmission lines at very low prices, and it would be very tough for another company to replicate their model.

4) PTC (power trading corporation) is soon going to start up a electricity trading board where states can sell and buy power at real time. All this power is going to go through the national power grid… So the company positioned to benefit from this is Power Grid Corporation.

5) The country is going for Mega (larger) power plants which satisfies the need of the region instead of having numerous power plants in individual cities. This creates a big business opportunity for Power Grid.

Cons:
1) Transmission lines have huge infrastructure and fixed costs. Along with the land value, an interstate power transmission lines often costs more than the power plant itself.

2) This a a government owned company (bureaucratic losses, red tape etc.) so it might take a couple of years for it to generate some real wealth for the investors.

In short over a 3-5 year horizon, this company should do wonders (just like NTPC), but in short term it might not generate sufficient wealth for the investors primarily because of its inefficient governmental legacy.

ICICI Bank had raised about 12940 Million INR for this purpose and though the stock is more than a 100/- below its issue price the company has till date bought back only a paltry sum of 185 Million INR from the open market. Their crime is aggregated from the fact that a lot of retail and institutional investors are still holding the partially paid share issued to them and they do not have any option/means to convert it to a full share.

The bank is not responsive to its customers, honest to its shareholders and its international investment arm is involved in sub prime lending… no wonder the stock is going down and is showing no signs of recovery.

So this morning I was reading the bank’s prospectus and this line caught my attention:
“PROMOTER: The President of India acting through MoF, GoI”

Guess what was the next thing I did?

Today a friend dropped by and asked me if he should invest in the offer.
I was like… Why on earth would you invest there?
1) even at the lowest price band the issue would be at 1020 which is at just 1% discount from the secondary market price of 1035/-. So you can never make any quick bucks (even if you make any) from this issue.
2) the BEML is not the most aggressive or the biggest machine manufacturer.. there are better picks to choose from.

I would say investors should avoid this issue.
1) Spice has been constantly making losses in all the telecom circles it operates.
2) It has the 8th largest network… which makes it too small for any strategic investments.
3) The company has not listed even a single move with which it plans to overturn its ailing fortunes.
4) The Promoters (Modi and Telekom Malaysia) are not very serious about the company. They wanted to sell it to Idea (Birla) , but the merger failed due to greediness of Modis. Hence to earn quick bucks Spice is going for this IPO.
5) NSE has refused to list its shares (but it has the permission from BSE)

I am applying to ICICI Bank as an investment, hence I would pay only 250/- upfront and then 4-6 months later pay the balance. On the other hand my father is lured by the 5% discount that ICICI bank offers him and wants to encash it ASAP, hence he is paying the entire amount upfront.
A friend of mine asked me why would anybody make a full payment if the IPO/Offer allows part payment?
My answer (the plain old standard answer….) It Depends!

Why Full Payment
1) If the reasons you are trying to invest is because of “Listing gains” (i.e. you will sell the entire holdings the moment you get the possession of the certificates) Then it makes sense to apply in full. At the time of listing there is a price discovery mechanism which causes the prices to jump up and down a lot… hence improving your chances to make a killing at the time of listing.
2) Lured by the benefit of leverage, a lot of people will make a partial payment and will end up with a non tradable ‘OPTION’… hence reducing the supply of shares. Remember it makes perfect sense to sell the shares when the supply is restricted and you would not like to miss this opportunity

Why Partial Payment:
1) Lure of leverage… (buy more than the amount of cash in hand) One of the reasons why I am rethinking my old strategy to invest in IPOs is because of the huge amount of capital that gets blocked for 20 days.
2) Long term investment… ICICI will 6 months time for investors to convert the partially paid shares into full shares. So I can effectively hold 95K worth of shares for 6 months by blocking just 25K (sounds tempting??)
3) Over subscription: If the company allows you to pay only 1/3 of the cost upfront and the issue gets oversubscribed 3 times…. well you will get 33K of shares by paying 33K instead of the full 1L.

But recently I have started questioning my investments
1) A good issue gets oversubscribed 30-40 times .. and very good ones even more.
2) Your capital gets blocked for 20 days (almost a 550/- interest lost on a 1L application)
3) If by mistake you apply in a bad IPO, you will not only get 100% allotment, but it will also list below the issue price.
4) If by stroke of luck you get an allotment, it would be of 6-7K worth… Now this is so small a piece of pie for me to track.. so either I need to shell out an additional 20-25k to make it sizable or get rid of the allotment on the very first day Hence defeating the very purpose of application.

For the past 1 year, i used to keep 1L aside for IPO applications. But since I got 1L straight refund for my last couple consecutive applications I am thinking of revisiting this strategy. From now on I won’t be investing in IPOs unless it is a mega issue.
What has been your experience with IPO?

Reasons why not to invest.
1) It is a mega issue… I will be surprised if it gets fully subscribed (in all categories) leave alone over subscribed.
2) with a EPS of Rs 12.80 it will have a PE of 47.7x… too high for an industry that is facing recession.
3) With high interest rates and construction more than the requirements (yes a lot of the developed property is now waiting for occupants) i do not see a short term bright future for any company associated with real estate.
4) With Delhi and NCR almost fully saturated, DLF plans to move outside to other regions… a risk which can backfire.

My strategy… wait for the listing… if the stock lists at 450/- buy some and if it goes to less than 400 go bullish on it.

Valuations:
1) With a EPS of 20, the share should be alloted at an PE of about 13.3 which makes it 3 times more attractive to other retail chains like Trent, Pantaloom and shopper’s stop, which trade at a PE of 40+.
2) The sales of the company is 1130.7 (and doubling each year) which makes it bigger than Trent and Shopper’s Stop.

I feel a combination of aggressiveness and a boom would make a good investment opportunity.

Salient Points:
1) It has a infrastructure sharing agreement with Oriental Bank of Commerce and Mumbai-based Corporation Bank.
2) The bank did a business of 70,000 crore each year (a 17% growth over last year).
3) The profits rose last year by 38%, primarily due to 25% increase its credit and a 17% increase in deposits.
4) The bank has an authorized capital of 1,500cr, paid up capital of 343 crore, preferential capital of 400 cr, and has over 2,000 crore in reserves.
5) The Net interest margin of the bank is a healthy figure of 3.57% and its NPA is less than 0.45%.

More updates awaited when I get my hand of the detailed balance sheet and the price band of the IPO is finalized.

Cairn IPO shall be open between 11-Dec to 15-Dec. The IPO size of 32.88 crore shares at a price band of 160-190 to translate into 5800 crore INR. Cairn India is to retain USD 600 million of IPO proceeds and rest will be used to Payoff the current promoters. This is the part of the $2 Billion USD the company is planning to raise.

Cairn is into oil exploration which is usually termed risky but I like the promoter and the fundamentals of the company. By 2010, the company’s Rajasthan oil-fields will be operational and Cairn is expected to be producing 20% of India’s crude oil. So if you want oil in your portfolio do invest in this IPO for the long term.

I love companies which try to raise money before going to IPO
1) Petronas/VC would have done a through evaluation of the business prospects. So the books will be in order and not many skeletons are expected out of the closet.
2) The pricing is more realistic. It will not be like the Air Deccan whose prices dipped by 50% immediately after listing.
3) The company most likely needs money for the genuine business needs rather than the promoter simply cash on the boom phase and exiting his business.

190/- might be a bit high but the share is definitely a good but at 160-180 price band.
My strategy:
1) Invest at an upper cut off of 180/-
2) The listing should happen somewhere in March at around 200/- Sell off half your holding at that price which will lower your acquisition cost.
3) Sell of the rest of the holding at 225+.

UPDATE: 7th December ONGC raised an objection to the red hearing prospectus Cairn filed for the IPO. Although serious, It does not effect the long term prospectus a lot. However if SEBI imposes a fine (or does anything more serious than redrafting the letter) it might scare a lot of institutional investors away. (and hence reduce the listing gains)

UPDATE2:15th December: Cairn was oversubscribed only 1.11 times and 0.9 times in retail. So retail investors can expect full allotment at 160/- (lower price band) and the listing is on 9th of Jan.

Dates:Aug. 24, Price band of INR295 to INR345 a share.

Strategy: Risky IPO, but not overpriced. The promoter is trying to liquidate his assets, but provided no info on why. Company needs to release more details before I make up my mind.

Shobha developers have constructed many prominent buildings that stand in the landscape of Bangalore and PNC Menon (chairman) seeks to raise the funds to go for land acquisition in and around Bangalore.

I did not get a chance to analyze its balance sheet in detail, but my first opinions are as follows:

Cons

1) It is a Bangalore based construction agency. Considering the cyclical nature of the industry and the fact that shobha is confined to one geographical location, I perceive it might be a risky venture.
2) The price-band is just right. So I do not expect substantial listing gains. In fact if one has patience they might pick up their shares in the open market (over next 3-4months) at under 600. But for a Medium term (1-3years) this company looks like a good bet.

Pros

1) For those who do not wish to miss the boom in Bangalore real estate, but do not have 50-60 lakhs to invest in a top property, investing in stocks of the leading developer is a very good option.
2) If Shobha advertises it plans to go to Chennai/ Mysore, there should be a big jump in the evaluation and risk mitigation. Investors stand to witness considerable appreciation of value in such a circumstance.
3) Their goodwill and long standing might make them very attractive for foreign partners who would like to seek collaboration when the construction market opens up for MNCs.

Best review at moneycontrol

According to their calculations. The land value held by the company itself exceeds 600/- per stock. Not to mention the value addition to it when the land is converted to a high rise tower. I will put it in a low risk IPO stock which can be comfortably held till it hits 800/- or elapsing of 12 months (which ever is earlier.)

Update: It got oversubscribed on the first day, and closed with an oversubscription of 70.15 times. Which is an history in itself. Finally a good response after a long lull in the primary market.

Listing:

It is expected to be listed on 29th Aug.

Reservations in India are pre-dominantly for the govt. jobs and University education and many organizations are demanding for reservations for forward class poor. My arguments against it are:

1. Forward class constitutes 15% of the population. Even if 50% of the seats are reserved, 15% of the population has access to 50% of the postings. So creating a special sub-category will only distort the demography.
2. A feudal oppression in society is rampant. Lower caste is denied their basic right of dignity. Reservation for forward caste will catapult the left out oppressors ahead, thus defeating the very cause of reservation.
3. Education in India is really economical. Tuition fees are a couple of thousand, loans and scholarships are in abundance. Hardly will you find anyone working part-time to raise tuition fee and rarely anyone drops outs due to economic reasons. For the job, past economic condition is irrelevant as the pays are decent. One needs to be a real moron to not get selected even tough he belongs to so called creamy layer.
4. When you give a poor SC/ST a job, university degree, you do not help an individual, but the whole community. He becomes a role model and enlightens his family, relatives and friends about reforms and dignity. However a poor forward class will try to fit himself with his peers and maybe practice caste system for recognition among his peers.
5. Reservation for some-one whose parents do not know what education is, who works in adolescence earning bread for his younger sister and whose basic right to dignity is deprived makes sense. Someone who does not know what development is and has no access to knowledge or capital for benefit of those around needs up-liftment not a forward caste fellow.