This page is an open forum to discuss about the short term and long term market strategies, which stock to buy which not to buy. I hope both the readers and I have monetary gains and share their tips/hunch here 
The previous comments are archived and I have also started an experimental page about Trading Calls.
As on 19 June 2008, I have an unrealized loss of 144,104/- (Oldest stock being purchased on 12th Feb)
My current portfolio consists of:
| no. | Stock | no of shares | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | |||
| 2. | Gujurat Ambuja Cement | 190 | @96. looks like it had taken more than expected beating. |
| 3. | Alok Textiles | 500 | @62 Low PE, textile sector leader |
| 4. | |||
| 5. | Tata Motors | 150 | @615/- long term buy with the hope that Nano and the Rover/Jaguar acquisition is a success. |
| 6. | ICICI 10% bonds | 10 | 10 year FD |
| 7. | Kesoram Industries | 200 | @404/- PE of 5 |
| 8. | |||
| 9. | |||
| 10. | EDECAP | 60 | @808, future looks promising. |
| 11. | Morgan Stanley Growth Fund | 2875 | @65/- 5% discount from NAV, Used to treat it as a index fund. |
| 12. | Saamaya Biotech | 4000 | @13/- Like their model of contracting + waiting for the plant to be operational and hence unlock its true value |
| 13. | Franklin Templeton Tax Saver Fund | 4662 | Income Tax |
| 14. | PRINCIPAL TAX SAVINGS FUND | 442 | tax saving 08-09 |
| 15. | |||
| 16. | |||
| 17. | |||
| 18. | |||
| 19. | |||
| 20. |
IPOs i have recently applied to/will apply
1) Rural Electrification Corporation (19th Feb)
2) Mahindra Resorts
3) Oil India
4) UTI MF
5) MCX
Watch List:
1) ITC
2) BHEL (surprisingly the stock is just going down)
3) Alok Industries
4) KESORAM INDUSTRIES LTD
Websites:
1) My transaction history (password protected)
3) ICICIDirect
4) Rediff Money
7) SPTulsian
8 ) LiveMint
PS: I am not a professional analyst nor I have had any formal training in Finance. Stock Market is just a Hobby which pays for all my other hobbies.
Ankur Aggarwal
sree
Sandip Chaudhuri
vbr
skabeesh
markets r up but low volumes - dead cat bounce ?
Comment by Prax — June 18, 2008 @ 12:39 am
http://www.livemint.com/2008/06/17233850/Hang-around-73-years-for-final.html
a good read
Comment by Prax — June 18, 2008 @ 1:11 am
honestly no idea…. plus the bounce is also not so high that i can think of liquidating some shares
but from the looks of it the overall bearish will stay for long…
btw bought some PRINCIPAL TAX SAVINGS FUND worth 35k
and short sold 800 ranbaxy shares… need to square off before july end
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — June 18, 2008 @ 10:17 am
PRINCIPAL TAX SAVINGS FUND is in a higher risk catagory
ok if ur a contrarian
Comment by Prax — June 18, 2008 @ 12:15 pm
recently it has been doing well.. hence i bought it… lets c… anyways i myself don’t know why i buy mutual funds. i have never made even a single penny with them.. and yet i keep on purchasing them…
whats up with you… what are you up these days…
regarding the dividend payout….
one should look at EPS and PE ratio and not the yield and dividend payout… after all funds ploughed back into the company are still profits.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — June 18, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
i got gastroenteritis - i think - cause the symptoms match - damn that norovirus
- but luckily it is not serious cause i think it should take me 3 more days to recover
Comment by prax — June 18, 2008 @ 10:15 pm
Worse, i had done a tax saving mf post before if u remember right
Comment by prax — June 18, 2008 @ 10:17 pm
and tax saving mf is a lt investment so u may do great if the mkt takes an upturn when u plan to withdraw funds
Comment by prax — June 18, 2008 @ 10:18 pm
got this link from the ii blog
http://www.india-today.com/btoday/20010406/cover.html
Comment by Prax — June 19, 2008 @ 2:59 am
hey man get well soon.
btw what is your opinion about ranbaxy? i think i am overexposed here
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — June 19, 2008 @ 8:03 am
interesting article… proves the point that as long as someone knows what happens to the market tomorrow.. he/she can make money.. and if they can engineer the price movement.. there is no limit
PS: squared off ranbaxy… 24k in less than 24 hours is not bad.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — June 19, 2008 @ 10:50 am
i was about to say u can cover today
indeed - but lesson here is cut the monetary value per trade,so you dont get caught overexposed
Comment by Prax — June 19, 2008 @ 2:40 pm
thats the entire problem with futures
the lot size is often too large… 800 shares of ranbaxy is a lot of shares
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — June 19, 2008 @ 4:59 pm
though u made good money , thanks to the lipitor deal
did u see what happened in ranbaxy and how manvinder and co won and the small investors etc who hold 52% lost? nyways lets see how sebi reacts
Comment by Prax — June 20, 2008 @ 2:01 am
i still could not understand the nuances of the lipitor deal… as a rule of thumb, ending the litigation is a positive sign because now the risk is minimal and management can concentrate better. plus selling patented drugs without patent is illegal… so they got away cheaply… why would sebi react?
PS bought 100 tata motors shares.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — June 20, 2008 @ 10:10 am
it baffles everyone cause lipitor held a lot of value in the ranbaxy valuaton.
there can always be a deal within a deal
with lipitor gone and generics with daichi, it shows the lack of interest of manvinder in ranbaxy henceforth and he will still rule for 3 yrs henceforth and worst hit is the majority shareholder - who essentially public and fis or public cos.
Comment by Prax — June 20, 2008 @ 3:02 pm
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/business/is-ranbaxy-walkingthin-legal-line/15/00/343223
Comment by Prax — June 20, 2008 @ 3:07 pm
gold near 1000$ still goin up ur call on etfs?
Comment by Prax — June 21, 2008 @ 2:48 am
no idea about gold…
but about diachi… lets c.. most likely diachi wanted a low cost high quality production base for its generic formulations.. and hence it went for ranbaxy…
remember FDA and other certifications takes years… so in a way diachi saved itself 5 years
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — June 24, 2008 @ 12:02 am
do u know that manvinder proposes to see his rnbxy shares in the mkt thus one could see a temp spike up in prices to facilitate it ?
Comment by prax — June 24, 2008 @ 12:55 pm
in spite of all the rumors… i can bet that will never happen
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — June 25, 2008 @ 6:46 am
i meant sell the shares to daichi in a mkt transaction to save on taxes as his holdings are yr + old - he went on record saying something on those lines, thus for his price the mkt price of ranbaxy should spike to 1% price range of his sell price to daichi , therefore expect a freak transaction at opening within 1% of that range - and the manvinder block deal along wit a few lucky others to follow at mkt opening someday
mkts eventually heading to my start buying sensex figure of 13500
what is ur call ? where do u see it heading
Comment by prax — June 25, 2008 @ 12:53 pm
i know what you meant…. and that is why i am saying it can never happen….
how can a promoter jack up the price and then sell of the entire equity…
even if a speculator dos that, he would be subjected to censure… and if a promoter does that, then god forbid what will happen.
Comment by ankur — June 25, 2008 @ 4:22 pm
time will tell i read something on those lines in live mint and other forums
Comment by Prax — June 26, 2008 @ 3:54 am
markets goin down the depth of the mariana trench
whats ur call ?
Comment by Prax — June 28, 2008 @ 1:09 am
i am down 2.5L in equity and another 1L down in derivatives… so i do not think i have the funds to even think of investing… i am tempeted to do a stop loss… but lets c… whats ur outlook
Comment by ankur — June 30, 2008 @ 3:48 pm
looks like 12500-600 will be hit - ive stopped looking at my pf
i did think u hurried into ur mf investment but the deed was already done
as of now inflation in India is expected at 15% in a few months
the us and china are playing pehle aap game on who will act to curtail growth and inflation! and the others are getting crushed, no wonder madam is thinking of early elections because things are going to get worse by august
things will only start to change when us starts increasing interest rates or takes sudden significant action on upping the value of dollar and/or china acts now and the Olympics are over and that cuts into dd.
i dont see the politicians of this country having guts to correct the oil anomaly because it has become a conundrum a long time ago
Comment by Prax — July 1, 2008 @ 12:44 am
looks like 12500-600 will be hit - ive stopped looking at my pf
i did think u hurried into ur mf investment but the deed was already done
as of now inflation in India is expected at 15% in a few months
the us and china are playing pehle aap game on who will act to curtail growth and inflation! and the others are getting crushed, no wonder madam is thinking of early elections because things are going to get worse by august
things will only start to change when us starts increasing interest rates or takes sudden significant action on upping the value of dollar and/or china acts now and the Olympics are over and that cuts into dd.
i don’t see the politicians of this country having guts to correct the oil anomaly because it has become a conundrum a long time ago
Comment by Prax — July 1, 2008 @ 12:44 am
12990 and counting down - this is getting scary for people who have invested at 20000+
Comment by Prax — July 1, 2008 @ 3:06 pm
resistances to look for
12856 April 2 07
12430 March 12 07 hopefully it should settle somewhere above this
12372 Oct 3 06
10085 july 17 06
Comment by Prax — July 1, 2008 @ 3:14 pm
sorry delete the prev comment
i am looking at a 2 yr interactive chart now and things are much clearer
here are mkt lows 06/07
April 2 07 12455
march 16 12430
march 5 12415 hopefully it should settle somewhere above this
oct 4 06 12204 after this it should be real scary
july 24 10205
july 19 10007
Comment by Prax — July 1, 2008 @ 3:24 pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25467665
Comment by anon — July 2, 2008 @ 5:27 am
consensus estimates
Inflation rate expected - 15%
Rbi still looking at rupee and not inflation
and worse some rupee estimates at 45
fiscal deficit ???
Stock mkts - nywhere between 12300 and 12400
Some People like mark faber expect a 10000 or lower bottom
oil to stay at 130+ a barrel till chinese olympics ?
are we heading to the worst case scenario?
whats your call? gut feel ?
Comment by prax — July 3, 2008 @ 2:01 pm
sorry for the late response…
but i somehow feel that that the worse is yet to come… warren buffet lost 20% of his capital… so definitely things r more complex then they sound…
why don’t we cross our fingers and just wait
PS: the only way i can increase my positions is by taking a loan….
btw u bought/sold anything….
about oil…. if stagflation is real… oil is soon going to go down… i heard so my reports about the companies being forced to redo their logistics/globalization models because of high frieght costs
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 5, 2008 @ 11:59 pm
agree on oil but not so soon it has to really spike first say to 175-200
and give a lot of sudden pain in the us - enough to spook demand
in both china and us
jim rogers expects the spike up until 200$ and says it in his curt style
equities are not the ideal investments better commodities and worse
India talks much more than it delivers - aka the incredible India campaign
- but hey he is a commodity bull
sit tight now or trade on reliance and infy if u have the guts cause ull have to sell first in a bear rally - still lots of action left - im considering pros and cons of selling some of my idiot mfs and buying equity instead
As the govt will be on its shakiest now that the left is certain to leave the govt to UNPA and its gowdaful bunch expect lots of drama and ruinous economic decisions for survival from a blame duck govt , that i expect wont anyways survive the term
i am also seeing the mkts at 10000 if the mkts dont hold 12300 as in 31
Comment by Prax — July 6, 2008 @ 11:57 am
i think it might be sensible to wait for the general election results…
if 3rd front comes to power, i will definitely bail myself out of stock market and wait for 6-12 months for second round of elections
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 9, 2008 @ 7:16 am
did u see t boone pickers interview?
he is dead serious on wind farms
Comment by prax — July 9, 2008 @ 2:41 pm
read my new post its on the current mess
Comment by prax — July 9, 2008 @ 2:41 pm
i think mkts are finding reasons to fall but valuations are still not that sweet
america is still no in capitulation mode - property has to fall and a lot to see blood on streets
Comment by prax — July 16, 2008 @ 5:14 am
#valuations are still not that sweet#
a good time will come.
i would totally back that. but i have not lost patience
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 16, 2008 @ 6:50 am
that will come the cycle always goes on… after the darkest night always comes the bright sunny day
The us govt and fed like ours is just talking things up and avoiding taking big crucial decisions.
i hope the american property mkts fall another 20% and a few hundred small us banks go belly up fast - that should force decisions on fanny freddy and co and push up rates, and should force the fed out of the lull - as this slow torture can be more devastating..
one trigger could be the finish of the Chinese superparty or Olympics as they call it - The whole nation has been practicing for that event.
Comment by Prax — July 17, 2008 @ 12:44 am
whatever goes up comes down….
the only problem is that i squared off my bearish position too soon.. otherwise i could have made a real killing (600-410 drop could have been a gold mine paying off for all my losses).
i was just looking at Ranbaxy shares… as anticipated the promoter could not prop up the prices
what about you, do you have any stock in mind?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 17, 2008 @ 8:11 am
btw check your spam comments… a lot of the comments that i had posted seems to be landing there
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 17, 2008 @ 8:13 am
I rescued 2 comments from 36 spams 3rd one was ur mod comment hope i didn’t accidentally delete any of ur comments
how can i work around this thing when u keep getting blocked - i dont know why akismet persecutes u
on Ranbaxy
U could have taken another position
It is true that this is a rampant bear mkt- sell short and make tonnes of money.
Even the fed/sec has banned naked shorts in financial stocks so yesterday the us mkt went up.
Best thing now is wait or take a light position in good stocks like reliance hll infy etc the mkt will have a bear rally before going down another 15 to 20% but bear rallys are unpredictable
the mkts look really oversold as the vix-dow-bse sn chart shows
plus china might perk up its oil consumption during the olympics -
and this govt still might not quite have its numbers right
Comment by Prax — July 17, 2008 @ 12:30 pm
sir wat u think abt indian stock market in near future i mean short term perspective…
Comment by MANMIT MAHESHWARI — July 17, 2008 @ 12:55 pm
there is major trouble brewing for smaller banks when they have to steal money from seniors on social security!
Comment by Prax — July 17, 2008 @ 12:58 pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/moneyhappy/94205;_ylt=As5XLY6WQEUdQGPb2SXiOEC7YWsA
Comment by Prax — July 17, 2008 @ 12:59 pm
ya i guess waiting would make sense…
about small banks… i really could not understand the Social security scam.. i think i would have to spend more time to get up to date on this topic.
about oil consumption and China… somehow i have a feeling that the many fold increase in the oil future trades is the culprit… and not the demand supply mismatch… but then almost all the experts in the oil sector have been proved wrong
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 17, 2008 @ 1:39 pm
the many fold increase in the oil future trades is the culprit…
agree
but what has pushed people into trading oil?
Negative returns on conventional investment, and dd supply gap being very tight and traders need reasons to move oil - even if a tiny opp party in nigeria releases a statement boom oil is up - thus things r gonna be real choppy
volatility will increase
damn i should also have shorted ranbaxy it seems like a free for all!
Comment by Prax — July 17, 2008 @ 9:11 pm
exactly, the money that created the real estate bubble, moved to the stock market, created a bubble there and then is flowing to the oil sector… and is creating the bubble there… this herd mentality is not only creating a lot of inflation and volatility.
about Ranbaxy… dude at that time the whole market was sure that the stock would reach 700+, the bulk deal will happen and then the market would go down….and had it had happened, you and I would have lost a dole of money…
plus i never knew that you had already entered into derivatives
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 17, 2008 @ 9:36 pm
reliance hll infy etc
i would again say… FMCG is too expensive.. their growth is stagnant and it does not justify the high PE they command…
about technology… TCS Q1 report shows only a 7% growth and there is a significant decline in margins…
about Reliance… if refinery/petrochemical margins are primarily because of the high Oil price.. if in 6 months oil goes below 100, then there could be a significant additional downside.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 17, 2008 @ 9:39 pm
whos investing in fmcg ?
trade short term im still waiting on derivatives things seem too choppy
Comment by Prax — July 18, 2008 @ 12:29 am
and best of luk with mba n stuff
but feel free to comment whenever u have free time.
think i should also cut down on the blogging habit!
Comment by Prax — July 18, 2008 @ 12:35 am
one of the best lines to summarize the entire crisis:
Wells Fargo chief executive John Stumpf observed: “It’s puzzling why bankers have come up with these new ways to lose money when the old ways were working so well.”
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 18, 2008 @ 4:27 pm
hey out here i have access to in dept financial data, sector news, price charts and almost all the stuff that top notch portfolio managers have… let me know if you want any specific info
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 24, 2008 @ 6:41 pm
cool- send me stuff that interests u -or something u find worth reading
Comment by Prax — July 25, 2008 @ 4:14 pm
I have the following investment in Construction & Real Estate
Please advise!
Stock Qty Average Cost Price Current Market Price
DLFLIM 91 525 459.05
GAMIND 3 442.7 210
GMRINF 633 60.02 84.7
IVRINF 42 288.75 307.25
JAIASS 268 151.26 162.7
NAGCON 45 198.09 132.3
PARDE 18 327.44 113.2
Comment by Basu — July 28, 2008 @ 12:26 pm
watsup wt u ?
ny comments on the state of the mkts
the sudden rate increase by JCT of ecb has lead to a fall in the oil gold and euro against the dollar but how long do u think the Us will take to clean up the rot in banks and housing ?
on banks
when do u think icici bk will be a good buy its nearly half of ur pp and almost close to my cost good i sold half my holdings
im seriously considering uti or hdfc bk cause they dont have the subprime baggage or the aggressive zeal that icici has
on gold - what say u ? does it mk sense to hold atleast 10% in a gold etf
cause oil and gold have to go up someday
Comment by prax — July 29, 2008 @ 8:48 pm
i have an exam from tomorrow
(
state of the market.. the quarterly results of many companies are below par… india may not approach recession, but their growth has tapered.
what is JCT?
about ICICI… i thought it was an aggressive bank, but its foolishly aggressive.. i would prefer Axis bank over HDFC (because of the better service they provide)…. Ceteris Paribus, good service leads to more business.
gold… short term maybe, but over long term gold has and will underperform.
oil… i doubt…recession means fall in economic activity, less transport/manufacture of goods, less consumption
last oil rise was because of too much attention/capital flowing into oil sector
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 30, 2008 @ 7:56 am
keep an eye on ranbaxy… i have a feeling that diachi will come up with a plan that would initially make the stock tank, but japan think ultra long term and gives a lot of importance to reputation and quality which will make Ranbaxy a good buy. (PS need to still investigate why this quarter was so bad)
Jet airways… man as I had expected… those guys did a book manipulation to increase profits 5 folds.
stay away from the entire sector.. capacity utilization is not going to even reach 70% in near future.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 30, 2008 @ 8:02 am
Best of luk!
jct is jean claude trichet the ecb chief who decides euro interest rates
Airlines are in the business of loosing money and will continue so in the near future, but super super long term they are a fair bet.
on oil yes i partially agree and expect it to decouple from gold and other commodities especially agri comms
Comment by Prax — July 30, 2008 @ 10:50 am
agi commodities is one area where i would like to spend some time and understand the nuances. man its in my TODO list for so long that i think i might never be able to retrieve it from there
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 30, 2008 @ 3:16 pm
as always u will have to salvage my comments from your blog
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 30, 2008 @ 6:12 pm
i think i found a workaround
i made u a contributor on my blog so i dont think that ur email add will henceforth be blocked
Comment by prax — July 30, 2008 @ 8:20 pm
hopefully
Comment by prax — July 30, 2008 @ 8:20 pm
hey thanks
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 30, 2008 @ 8:31 pm
bought 800 FUT-RANLAB-25-Sep-2008 at 469.
800 FUT-RANLAB-29-Oct-2008 at 430
900 Saamaya Biotech at 8.5
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — July 31, 2008 @ 11:37 am
i dont have that much info
my friend was into oil futures but stopped it due to the very high margin system
what interested me in gold /silver was
first it is the classic reserve currency which is the best protection from inflation - no wonder it was up 30 odd percent
the fact that financial discipline goes a skidding when countries remove currency from the gold standard is plainly seen - be it an India of a Us
the fact that the austrian theory works is a fact.
I have just started looking at the random correlation or lack of it in the oil gold and currency mkts …
Comment by Prax — August 8, 2008 @ 11:26 am
//the commodity run was far too exaggerated - no wonder it is falling
thanks to
1. euro recession fears and overall gloomy eco climate
2. chinas olympics
3. over speculation in commodities and bricks and the herd of speculators lightening positions from key commodities//
Commodities per say will never increase faster than the inflation of the land… what excites me is the fact that it gives a nice alternative to park ones money. plus one of my main intentions is to learn the different investment model and how the changes in the macro-economic models affect each and every one of these…. money generated is just a derived pleasure
Indian economy is about 1billion USD at exchange rates and little over 4Billion USD at PPP basis.
It might make good sense to clean up ones portfolio.. after all market has just started to look rosy…. but don’t sell fundamentally strong stock… you are one person who has the patience to hold on for years… and don’t give that up.
//im speculating that nifty can retest the recent lows and go lower//
NIFTY moves up and down more than a ping pong ball.. so I won’t be surprised.
//there can be a bigger fall after that cause the macro factors are still horrendous and oil aint still cheap as even at 100$ a barrel we are looking at a 4% addition to the fisc deficit - if im not mistaken that too with the oil bond natak and the part contributed by the oil cos not reflecting in that figure…//
irrespective of what our FM says… fiscal deficit is not 2.5%, its close to 10% of GDP.. and its high by any terms.
// http://seekingalpha.com/article/89630-the-indian-economy-and-gold-imports //
the facts that the article states seems be to be true, only thing is that the way in which the author stated those facts could be refined a bit.. but i loved the article.
i agree that Indian economy is fundamentally not as strong as we project it is… but the only difference with the other BRIC economies is that it is consumption driven… so as long as investment does not slow down, we should do good
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — August 10, 2008 @ 9:03 am
ankur i think my hold for long strategy is poor
as it is long term is shrinking as a perspective
especially because i have a large holding of psus - oil and power and this govt and most that will follow are going to milk them even further - reducing the one positive the psus have - good dividend - the govt rewards itself any way it chooses and the shareholders eventually always suffer
i need to put money in good stocks for the longer term and
trade the psus short to medium term rather than hold them - thats what i am thinking here
cause there are so many swings
Comment by Prax — August 10, 2008 @ 2:12 pm
but one thing for sure
i will start maintaining at least 10% in gold once it gets a bit lucrative because next 2 yrs will be inflationary and give negative returns
Comment by Prax — August 10, 2008 @ 2:14 pm
u r not entering into gold/commodities without taking me as a partner….
About long term… yes the companies that you pick need to be market leaders in a growth market…
in PSU why don’t you target companies which might go for disinvestment… for that has to be a long term investment and can give good returns at medium risks
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — August 10, 2008 @ 3:02 pm
sure
on gold has always turned back from its support at 50-week moving average), Rs11,853/Rs11,690. Resistance would come at Rs12,002/Rs12,070.
from sharekhan commodities
and etfs are the best way to go and goldbees is the better etf - i still have to chk out kotak gold etf
i will tell u one thing my exp with psus has been a sour deal
ongc the biggest ticket ipo was at 712.5
i subscribed to it - once it opened it crashed below ipo prices and rarely went upto 750 the stock boom meant reliance went up 10fold
vsnl was still stuck between 950 and 1350
only psus as of today gave me around 100% are some psu power stocks
i will take each psu divestment on a case by case basis
icici was much better i still am making around 200% on icici bank even after the fall - that too i am happy i sold half of them at around 1150
Comment by Prax — August 10, 2008 @ 10:46 pm
typo not vsnl ongc
Comment by Prax — August 10, 2008 @ 10:48 pm
the govt is desperate to prep up the mkts to get a good value for the lined up disinvestment -
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/347581.html
as it is the desp is there cause the govt looks set to bailing its fiscal mess out via disinvestment and wants to cut inflation
but will the mkts oblige - when most pf managers are sitting with a good proportion of cash in their books?
things will be interestg
on gold watch if 108$ barrel oil holds cause that will decide where it will settle
Comment by Prax — August 12, 2008 @ 5:52 pm
thats exactly what i am waiting for… govt to offload some equity to the public.
lets c how attractive is the disinvestment
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — August 12, 2008 @ 6:01 pm
dont be too sure abt the govt there is the gang of 4 madam mulayam laloo and paswan who can anytime put a spanner into anything they choose
as it is the fm is offically living in a fools paradise
its time to do small purchase of goldbees as accumulation as dollar looks overbought thanks to all the negative data flows
Comment by Prax — August 13, 2008 @ 9:59 pm
and this pay commission is going to have an adverse effect on the profitability of many PSU esp banks
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — August 14, 2008 @ 4:09 pm
lead inflation figure had a sudden spike today 12.44?% !
but the fm says 8.5% growth amusing isn’t it
Comment by Prax — August 14, 2008 @ 10:19 pm
which singh is king ?… time will tell
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/PoliticsNation/FM_has_failed_Amar_Singh/articleshow/3366717.cms
Comment by prax — August 15, 2008 @ 1:53 am
I agree Indian FM has no qualms about telling a white lie… how can he think that the rest of the world is too stupid to realize what he is doing
http://businessweek.com/investor/content/aug2008/pi20080813_906253.htm
article about future of investing and investment banks.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — August 15, 2008 @ 8:00 am
First he is a lawyer
second he is an overconfident liar who thinks he is unfallable and is hell bent on making more mistakes - ive lost trust in this govt
both make a dangerous mix and i am tending to favor amars assessment
Comment by Prax — August 15, 2008 @ 11:40 am
i see bad signs for two sectors
property and agressive banks and psu banks in future
second when will the oil prices in india reach rational rates reflecting reality
if there is one more spike expect the ds oil cos to really get jacked on their working cap needs
how did you put the yahoo chart for bse and nse?
Comment by prax — August 17, 2008 @ 1:52 am
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=%5EBSESN
insert this image link location… for the charting…
i agree stay away from PSU… the wage hike and the fact that the wage bill is linked to inflation is going to domestically change the cost structure and hence profitability.
property was long dead… luckily i did not loose in that sector.
aggressive banks… which one… seeking alpha was positive about ICICI…
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — August 17, 2008 @ 2:03 am
short to medium term icici is no doubt a sell
though they are focussing on personal bkg
Comment by prax — August 17, 2008 @ 11:43 pm
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/deals-and-the-dark-side-of-debt/
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — August 19, 2008 @ 3:37 pm
this is interesting
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/08/country-total-r.html
Comment by prax — August 23, 2008 @ 2:11 am
wats up otherwise ?
Comment by Prax — August 29, 2008 @ 12:55 am
nothing much.. exam starts from 10th.. so would be busy in that
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — August 29, 2008 @ 1:12 am
best of luk !
Comment by Prax — August 29, 2008 @ 12:35 pm
im leaning on giving icici a negative call
india is having its own mini loan crises and icicis good loans are being repayed early instead of defaulting, worsening the risk profile
secondly kalpana morparia the no 2/3 is moving to jpm
Comment by prax — September 2, 2008 @ 3:14 am
what is ur call on mkts oil and gold ???
oil has gone below the 108$ a barrel and could break hundred soon depending upon hurricanes and opec and the United States govt that announced on Tuesday it was releasing 250,000 barrels from the strategic reserve.
dollar is up vs the euro or pound or even aussis (euro economy are faring real bad due to recession fears)
Re is down against dollar the tech stocks are going up
10 yr bond (local) saw upward revaluation no wonder banks that hold them long bonds are having a good rally
but there are a lot of things to worry about, oil could correct further but spurt once fanny and Freddy get too hot to handle and housing prices correct further thanks to inflation
things are interesting
Comment by prax — September 3, 2008 @ 1:05 pm
sorry man… i will reply to all your queries after 2 weeks… its real hard to compete against kids in academics
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — September 3, 2008 @ 2:05 pm
take ur time
more than a query its ur opinion i seek
Comment by Prax — September 5, 2008 @ 2:24 am
rupee at 45 infosys a buy???
Comment by prax — September 11, 2008 @ 2:06 am
Where r u ?? what about ur stocks ?
Seems like u have no time or lost interest in the mkts
the markets are so alive these days
the fed has taken over massive amt of private firm debt/risk willy nilly
the bill is ever increasing
Economist estimates some of it at 1.3 trillion
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12231236&source=features_box_main
so what will happen to the dollar and to stocks ?
read this one too
http://seekingalpha.com/article/95543-the-fed-s-new-trick-bailouts-disguised-as-buyouts?source=front_page_editors_picks
Comment by prax — September 16, 2008 @ 12:48 pm
life is very hectic… for the past 1 week i was having 1-2 exams a day .. I even had exams on Sunday….. I still follow the market.. but don’t get enough time to analyze it.
btw i send a mail on mailprax .. yahoo id.. what do u think about it?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — September 16, 2008 @ 2:44 pm
will chk n reply
Comment by prax — September 16, 2008 @ 3:38 pm
do you have access to kotak india daily reports?
everyday they publish a 25 page pdf document which seems to have a very good comprehensive summary of the market as well as 2-3 of its sectors.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — September 18, 2008 @ 9:55 am
i did get some of them by mail
Comment by Prax — September 18, 2008 @ 12:52 pm
im mailing u stuff on the id u sent me ur prev mail
Comment by Prax — September 18, 2008 @ 12:56 pm
mail me at my gmail address - u should have 2 mails from me
Comment by Prax — September 18, 2008 @ 1:10 pm
done.. you should have got the mail by now
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — September 19, 2008 @ 5:40 pm
what are u upto with your pf remaining inactive
there are no changes and u have lost a lot of money
Tata motors , negative here basically because it was a leveraged purchase - there were reports of asset stripping by ford before they sold jag to tata - and tata has come out saying that was the part of restructuring.
what are ur plans hold for next 5yrs?
- u were the most active fin blogger and suddenly u have vanished
i dont expect u to do it on a daily basis
but even the old black grannys on wall street do a half monthly review of their portfolios
i wonder what is ur grand scheme of things
ps take ur time to reply
Comment by Prax — September 24, 2008 @ 4:53 pm
i was actually busy evaluating the private equity players and options. and I have recently invested a 10L in ICICI backed Cinema Venture fund. The fund has a 5 year lock in and would invest in unlisted companies… wait a minute.. i think I did email u about it.
i agree Tata Motors is a write off.. they r not able to derive any value out of the leveraged acquisition and project delays (assuming that Singur plant does not need to be relocated) itself would kill all the profitability out of Nano. hence i don’t think i will be subscribing to the rights issue (oct 2nd week)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — September 24, 2008 @ 6:44 pm
my plans….
1) i believe that i screwed up my portfolio beyond repair… and i don’t foresee it coming back to the investment value (minus interest ofcourse) in the next 2 years.
2) the recession is a reality now… so it might not hurt for me to stop investing for next 1.5 years.
3) thanks to that PE fund, me not earning, huge fees and my losses in the current portfolio… i don’t have any surplus cash left.
i will be there in the market as an observer… intend to invest in a few IPO esp the hydel power one… but don’t expect any 10L+ deals in a day from me. sorry if i have disappointed you, but i think i should give this hobby of mine a little break
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — September 25, 2008 @ 1:19 am
No ankur u haven’t disappointed me - actually reeducating urself is a real good idea if u take my opinion
the funny thing is i went through a similar cycle when i had purchased infy in the 2000s, euphoria - heavy trading - and then plain and simple giving up on my investments and passive studying - even now i hardly trade
its not a bad idea to take a pause and muse - as it is u r studying -
but u have to make decisions and take losses and most importantly review least on a half or monthly basis as u still have a decent portfolio…
Comment by Prax — September 25, 2008 @ 2:20 pm
Mark faber is predicting more gloom and doom
Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told reporters on the sidelines of an investor conference in Hong Kong. He’s also predicting Chinese economic growth to “disappoint” and Indian stocks to decline.
do we exit some stocks now before they tank another 10 to 15% ???
im really getting uncomfortable with this market
Comment by Prax — September 25, 2008 @ 4:34 pm
India is also “not problem-free,” Faber said. He forecasts the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, will fall below 10,000. The Sensex is down 33 percent this year.
“I think new all-time highs in markets are most unlikely for the time being,” Faber said. “So I’m not particularly interested to play the market at the present time.”
im seriously contemplating sinking my funds in a 6 mths fmp
Comment by Prax — September 25, 2008 @ 4:36 pm
i agree that markets are not expected to look northwards atleast in this financial year… but the interest rates are also low (and real interest rate is negative) so i think it might be more profitable to invest rather than allowing the money to rot in the banks.
but then as you just mentioned.. i am going through the same phase as you…. only problem is that i am a couple of years behind
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — September 25, 2008 @ 5:01 pm
i agree but an fmp gives me 11.25% and gets closest to the inflation number
plus eq will give me negative returns nyways
Comment by prax — September 26, 2008 @ 12:51 am
ankur
it would be wise if u book short term losses on some of ur scripts within a yr - depending on ur analysis, cause ltcl cannot be covered and even if u do 4 trades a month u can recover some losses in the volatile markets..
Comment by Prax — September 29, 2008 @ 2:47 pm
i was thinking of booking losses sometime in jan-feb.. near the close of the financial year… also by then my summer placement inerviews would be over giving me a lot of free time.
how about u… u did any trades recently?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — September 29, 2008 @ 5:08 pm
im ok
good strategy but the difficult bit is the numbers might be at their worst
between december to feb keep a watch and sell at higher resistances
there is too much fluctuation so im watching on sidelines
as the risk reward is too skewed and people who are shorting are earning big
just waiting to invest when the mkts go down
will start - all depends upon where the mkts go from here
we are at key supports and mkts can crash if they break
Comment by Prax — September 29, 2008 @ 9:16 pm
woah! were do u see bottom and capitulation now?
Comment by Prax — October 10, 2008 @ 2:46 pm
Prax.
do me a favor, take a break… stay away from the market for 6 months.
you saw what happened to hindalco, Suzlon, tata motors and other rights issues. nobody is willing to invest in the market and the sentiments are unlikely to improve in a year or so time.
so sit back and enjoy in the mean time
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — October 12, 2008 @ 1:23 pm
true !
Comment by Prax — October 13, 2008 @ 2:02 am
I think this is a good time to buy some really good, quality stocks for cheap $$$. As far as I know, the Indian markets are quite down too. I bought Google, Apple at rates that you can’t even think of buying at when the market is high.
Same goes for other industries like Utlities, Steel, Energy etc. These will be the first to pop up as soon as the market rebounds. Non-cyclical stocks are a good bet too. Did you engage in any shorting? You can make some quick bucks that way. But yeah, it’s more technical analysis than fundamental analysis right now.
Comment by Ruhi — October 31, 2008 @ 6:53 am
if you are OK with staying put for 2 years or so.. I agree this could be a wonderful value proposition .
unfortunately I am in school, so can’t afford such a long term view on my investments
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — October 31, 2008 @ 11:58 am
is icici bank facing a run ?
Comment by prax — November 3, 2008 @ 5:29 pm
it cannot.. the PM has personally assured that none of the Indian banks will be allowed to fall.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 3, 2008 @ 6:01 pm
i thought so but then again i dont trust the establishment
after the gtb episode
i got a tad bit worried because icici adds did not stop in toi
this is a sign of worry
Comment by prax — November 4, 2008 @ 6:24 pm
So have u made any changes to ur pf? saw a few changes since last time
what do u think of the stimulus bonanza at the risk of taking the fisc defecit double digit?
u dont have to answer if ur still taking a hiatus
Comment by Prax — December 12, 2008 @ 3:59 am
did u see the china trade figures published on 10th december….
the world is going through a rough patch…. india included… and don’t expect any recovery till 3Q 2009.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 12, 2008 @ 7:06 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aLAJNW1YqWZU&refer=india
i would strongly recommend you to read international newspapers to know the exact state of Indian affairs… indian papers don’t do a through research and are primarily sentiment driven.
My take the recession has just hit India… the worst is yet to come
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 12, 2008 @ 4:35 pm
agree 100%, was just chkg what u estimate was
i expected the 2nd qtr 2009 to be the time for startg to invest
not just foreign newspapers blogs are also good
roubinis rge monitor is great chk it out and subscribe
Comment by Prax — December 13, 2008 @ 4:14 am
http://www.economist.com/surveys/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12749795&fsrc=rss
read
Comment by Prax — December 13, 2008 @ 5:13 am