Stock Chat
This page is an open forum to discuss about the short term and long term market strategies, which stock to buy which not to buy. I hope both the readers and I have monetary gains and share their tips/hunch here 
The previous comments are archived and I have also started an experimental page about Trading Calls.
As on 1st June 2008, I have an unrealized loss of 94,104/- (Oldest stock being purchased on 12th Feb)
My current portfolio consists of:
| no. | Stock | no of shares | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Reliance Industries | 75 | evergreen stock @2450/- |
| 2. | Gujurat Ambuja Cement | 190 | @96. looks like it had taken more than expected beating. |
| 3. | Alok Textiles | 500 | @62 Low PE, textile sector leader |
| 4. | ICICI Bank | 150 | long term buy @1023/- |
| 5. | Tata Motors | 50 | @615/- long term buy with the hope that Nano and the Rover/Jaguar acquisition is a success. |
| 6. | ICICI 10% bonds | 10 | 10 year FD |
| 7. | Kesoram Industries | 200 | @404/- PE of 5 |
| 8. | OPT-NIFTY-26-Mar-2009-4300-PE | -150 | I am bullish about indian market |
| 9. | Su-Raj Diamonds | 1000 | @60/- Good PE, healthy cash reserves and track record. waiting it to reach 100 mark |
| 10. | EDECAP | 60 | @808, future looks promising. |
| 11. | Morgan Stanley Growth Fund | 2875 | @65/- 5% discount from NAV, Used to treat it as a index fund. |
| 12. | Saamaya Biotech | 4000 | @13/- Like their model of contracting + waiting for the plant to be operational and hence unlock its true value |
| 13. | Franklin Templeton Tax Saver Fund | 4662 | Income Tax |
| 14. | |||
| 15. | |||
| 16. | |||
| 17. | |||
| 18. | |||
| 19. | |||
| 20. |
IPOs i have recently applied to/will apply
1) Rural Electrification Corporation (19th Feb)
2) Mahindra Resorts
3) Oil India
4) UTI MF
5) MCX
Watch List:
1) ITC
2) BHEL (surprisingly the stock is just going down)
3) Alok Industries
4) KESORAM INDUSTRIES LTD
Websites:
1) My transaction history (password protected)
2) Bloomberg India
3) ICICIDirect
4) Rediff Money
5) NSE IPO Status
6) Seeking Alpha
7) SPTulsian
8 ) LiveMint
PS: I am not a professional analyst nor I have had any formal training in Finance. Stock Market is just a Hobby which pays for all my other hobbies.
http://www.livemint.com/2008/03/08004459/Sensex-so-far-what-goes-up-mu.html
good read
Comment by prax — March 10, 2008 @ 10:25 pm
i think in a month or so US FED will officially declare a recession….
that day would be the best time to purchase
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 10, 2008 @ 10:50 pm
yes precisely
im however tempted to make my 80c investment
some bad day and the sensex tumbles iwish ill be the first to purchase
in this month
Comment by prax — March 10, 2008 @ 11:17 pm
what ru planning not that u r fully invested ??
goin to hold or book profits whenever u see them?
Comment by prax — March 10, 2008 @ 11:17 pm
i have already made my 80c investment for this year. But i think it might be wise to do the next year’s investment in 1st week of april.
i did some stupid deals in march because of which now not only i have wiped out most of the profits earned this year, but increased my exposure to 13L, which is already 3L beyond my comfort zone. neways I think now i have reached my perfect portfolio composition with exposure in 9 different (uncorrelated) sectors and index. so i can go and sleep for a couple of months. However if i find a real good bargain, i might jump back in (but no big ticket purchases.)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 11, 2008 @ 7:04 am
for 80c and most contrarian investing u had a good mantra
wait till there is mkt capitulation and when everyone exit then go and fish
Comment by prax — March 11, 2008 @ 5:24 pm
do I trade in too large a quantity?
too often I am observing that when I give a limit price order, it gets executed only partially.
eg: i wanted to sell Indian Glycol (20+% rise in a day is a fair return), but could sell only quarter of my holdings.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 11, 2008 @ 5:57 pm
maybe u don’t but it depends upon how liquid the stock is and igly isnt the most known or liquid stock
Comment by prax — March 11, 2008 @ 7:23 pm
purchase prices of ur pf dude if possible email me if ur uncomfortable with posting them
nyways is it a great time to trade with these fluctuations?
Comment by Prax — March 12, 2008 @ 10:09 am
rec 120 to 125 markets r good today good for u will u take profits
what about near term psu banks esp corp bank and sbi tey r cheaper than rec
Comment by Prax — March 12, 2008 @ 10:10 am
i am in deep red right now. but i promise the moment i clear all these losses, I would add the purchase prices too.
about trading with fluctuations… i am planning to again go on a sabbatical for a couple of weeks and then re-enter when the markets become sane again (but i might sell a few if i get a good price.
i sold REC at 124/- the prices r unrealistically high.
about PSU banks… i think stay away from banking sector.. without credit growth, we will only see the spreads reducing.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 12, 2008 @ 1:47 pm
i dont care if u do or dont u have to decide that - depending upon ur comfort levels plus im not interested in valuing u
- but i want to reference ur purch prices whenever i purchase scripts
i have a major mkt phobia thanks to the tech hit of 2000s
and really need to kick it real fast thats why i always demand it
hope i dont sound to aggressive
well best of luck !!! and chill it dude
Comment by Prax — March 12, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
email me ur gmail addr, i will share my transaction records with u…
but do remember, i make a lot of mistakes, and take a lot of unnecessary risks
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 12, 2008 @ 2:30 pm
i know , im the cautious one
no wonder we are a decent combo
anyways and have been through the grind ur in so dont worry - u will hear from me
ps tisco is being sold by mfs after corus numbers
Comment by Prax — March 12, 2008 @ 2:39 pm
the reason why i am investing in TISCO is because the Corus profits are not correctly accounted in the TISCO’s valuation
then Steel prices (esp the futures) are all time high and the demand shows no signs of slowing.
also TISCO has a lot of captive iron ore and coal mines… with the mining profits all time high, these captive units should yield substantial profits….
plus its Tata sound management, big size and trust.
//i know , im the cautious one//
yups, and thanks to you all my investments have always been in companies which made solid fundamental strengths.. so the idea is that even if the stock is a disaster in the short term horizon. because of its fundamental strength the downward risk would be low and eventually the prices would pick up.
//no wonder we are a decent combo//
yups jan and Feb was the best time for me… and then u disappeared for a week in March and I lost a fortune immediately
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 12, 2008 @ 3:38 pm
life
there are always the ups and downs
i did have a bad feeling before leaving
Comment by prax — March 12, 2008 @ 4:03 pm
plus its a hobby, and as long as it stays like that life is fun…
we make bets not to earn a living but to derive a pleasure from winning (and with the rising sensex, there are more winners than losers)…
the problem starts when one becomes obsessed with the figures and destroy our peace of mind. luckily both of us have a life and we value it.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 12, 2008 @ 4:12 pm
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10837381&top_story=1
gd read
Comment by prax — March 13, 2008 @ 4:07 am
this looks like a sellers and moreso a traders market
lets see when it becomes an investors / buyers mkt
Comment by Prax — March 13, 2008 @ 1:22 pm
where have u gone ?
Comment by prax — March 14, 2008 @ 10:32 am
i am stuck in korea
it was a very sudden trip made at an 3 hour notice
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 14, 2008 @ 1:51 pm
ok cool no wonder
Comment by Prax — March 14, 2008 @ 2:33 pm
I got stuck in trade with REC (1000 @ 123) and India Glycol (1000@ 290). Badly stuck. I also bought SBI (100@2135) after which the stock sank.
Screwed royally now. All my investments that I thought was part of bottom-fishing or SIP has only resulted in a 25-30% loss (including some investments at 21K levels).
I am thinking if it makes sense to sell my entire portfolio at a loss and then reinvest at 12K Sensex levels….
Any thoughts?
Comment by rambodoc — March 15, 2008 @ 7:18 pm
doc, u haven’t been reading either the chats or being judicious
u cant trade positive anymore in a bear mkt until u r sure that u can hold out and bear losses in fundamentally good stocks
especially now with ur kind of experience
go slow and build a long term portfolio buy in tiny lots and avg and accumulate good stocks and please dont trade
if u want u can go short on a good day
there can be worse things coming
thanks to the sub prime mess there and the yen loans here…
sbi is a long term hold but, thanks to the fms loan waiver all the psu banks r screwed for the foreseeable future
Comment by prax — March 15, 2008 @ 7:25 pm
u got to pair down those lots and take as a game or a learning process
1000 ka lot ??- i know ur a big fancy doc and can afford the hit
but please cut it down to 100/250 ka lot as this mkt is very choppy
very sharp - and rec though good was a buy between 100 to 110 max
luckily on the positive side these r good stocks not the
videocons and others of the world
sorry if im curt, but someone needs to give u some bitter medicine
Comment by prax — March 15, 2008 @ 7:34 pm
Prax,
This happened the day after the Dow hit a 400 point rally. I expected an 800 point plus in our market, but that day the mkt melted….
I know I am screwing up… my money is drying up, and my MF portfolio is not pretty at all, almost down to the principle…
Comment by rambodoc — March 15, 2008 @ 11:03 pm
Doc everyone makes mistakes- i have my share too
i think i should do a post on the mkt cycles
but more importantly learn from ur mistakes
in downturns the old bull mkts formula doesn’t work
in bull mkts most local bad news is pushed under the carpet
in bear mkts it is blown out of proportion
remember we r the last to get the information
then indian mkts fell cause they got a whiff of
the local industrial production data even though dow had climbed
40 points - it was a mistake to commit with such large lots
the adv/dec ratio is very bad these days picking a winner is
much too tough
well u r learning and it is good
first u did a lot of satta on tips in stuff like videocon
an old harshad stock - it is good now u have shifted to better ones
read my 19th comment - this is a deadly mkt and it can burn
even ankur is sitting put and id advise u to temper greed and lots
Comment by Prax — March 16, 2008 @ 12:16 am
at least ur mfs r not in loss
i put in the tech boom peak in 2000
my mfs quartered in value through now im in negligible profits
luckily it was just Rs 30000 - i learnt a lot after that and it was quite a lot for me as i was fresh out of college
only speculate rash with money u can afford to loose..
Comment by Prax — March 16, 2008 @ 12:21 am
@prax…
ya its odd, instead of declaring bad debt as CCC and writing them off, these rating agencies still insist on keeping these debts at AAA ratings….
@ram…
I do not think the stock market would go to 12k, but if it does goes, then go on a shopping spree.. it would be once in a year opportunity.
btw i agree with Prax… 1L lot size is too huge, you have to be dead sure to make such kind of investment in today’s market… I know my lot size is large, but that is because I have my father and Prax to aid me, and I am in a position to withstand 6-12 months of bear run… but I am not sure about u.
Plus Prax and I have enough surplus invest able cash to do a Dollar Price averaging if the stock market falls further.
@prax…
yes i am also confused about how the farm waiver would get reflected on the PSU’s balance sheets… no wonder FII r dumping the stock of SBI
I know Tech boom was a big setback for you, but keep the past behind and start picking up some good stocks for the future… i have a feeling that in 6 months or so market would start looking rosy again
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 17, 2008 @ 8:14 am
hey ankur hold on there
i dont take half the risk u do and hardly trade, i need however to start doing some trading . My mum had barred me from trading and even investing in mkts thanks to the tech thing which had almost given me a good shock. Though i didnt trade i still invest long term,i would satisfy myself of keeping updated thanks to your trading / commenting on it.
infact i havent bought anything much in the recent past except through ipos because i was unsure of how the mkt would play and thought that i had missed the bus, and have seen a repeat of 2000 now. There should be one more big fall maybe today or in the next week sensex at worse 13500 and at best 16000 is what i see in the short/ medium term…
now is the time to buy if the mkts tank another day or two
i dont think the banks will have it easy , just like most psu firms- the fm already hinted that his focus is not on the mkts during the inflation debates - he is for more waivers even for moneylender debt if the kangressi yuvraj declares it
Comment by Prax — March 17, 2008 @ 12:34 pm
ankur what do u think is the right time to buy ?
keep me informed on ur gut feel
i have some money waiting to be invested
Comment by Prax — March 17, 2008 @ 12:37 pm
hey recently I have also reduced my trading volumes considerably…
about a good buy, I would wait for the day when FED will officially declare a recession.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 17, 2008 @ 1:05 pm
what is ur purch price for reliance tisco icici and r u still holding on or planning to avg out and if so when?
Comment by Prax — March 17, 2008 @ 5:34 pm
shankar sharma of the brokerage that was among the ones that benefited most due to the bangaru videos says sell lock stock barrel and hinting
we may be going into a long term recession comparing it to the big bust
so doc howr things at your end ?
Comment by Prax — March 18, 2008 @ 1:18 am
RIL:2400
TISCO: 700
ICICI : 940
I am planning to hold for long… also for the rest of the month, i have no bandwidth to do any trades, the work is too much already
typically i ignore advise from brokerage houses, because they have very short term vision and are only interested in large trade volumes.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 18, 2008 @ 7:09 am
Running at a total of 30% loss. Am seriously wondering the value of selling off and reinvesting at the inevitable 10k-12k levels.
Comment by rambodoc — March 18, 2008 @ 9:48 am
as most of them are fundamentally good so better hold on
i was just talking about perspectives
ur estimate doc - IS the WORST CASE SCENARIO
im still estimating a 13500 sensex at worst
am preparing to do 80c investments now
Comment by Prax — March 18, 2008 @ 10:25 am
Yes, I strongly feel that Marc Faber would be proven correct and smarter than a lot of experts gave him credit for.
What are 80C investments, BTW?
Comment by rambodoc — March 18, 2008 @ 1:19 pm
@ram…
30% is still an OK loss, consider it a tution fee…
i would go with prax and keep all my stocks in cold storage for a couple of months….
@prax…
u lucky b*****, you can now buy mf at rock bottom prices
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 18, 2008 @ 1:52 pm
anyways my income is almost not taxable
bad news is a flowing - the 12000 rumor is very strong though i stick by my guns
Comment by Prax — March 18, 2008 @ 2:43 pm
80c is tax savings
Comment by Prax — March 18, 2008 @ 2:51 pm
what do u mean by not taxable? salary is taxed at 33% right?
i know 80c is tax saving elss, and with 3 year lock in, it makes perfect sense to buy them real cheap so that the market has nowhere to go but up
btw markets r supposed to go up by 4-5% today… u and Ram might like to get rid of some junk from the portfolio today
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 19, 2008 @ 7:36 am
well i dont have a salaried job
Comment by Prax — March 19, 2008 @ 12:46 pm
well i don’t know what u do for a living…
so why don’t u tell me
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 19, 2008 @ 1:21 pm
I, too, don’t have a salaried job! I am a manual laborer who just pretends to be a doc in the internet!
Comment by rambodoc — March 19, 2008 @ 10:34 pm
:)) ya ya… and I earn my living by hauling stones in a quarry.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 20, 2008 @ 9:37 am
ill mail u on sunday
Comment by Prax — March 20, 2008 @ 11:05 pm
check ur mail
Comment by Prax — March 24, 2008 @ 10:48 am
i found the OPT-NIFTY-24-Jun-2010-5000 most interesting bit of ur pf
can u tell me about the costs and method of taking that call
and what do u think about current markets?
Comment by prax — March 25, 2008 @ 11:32 am
life out here is so hectic around here that sorry for replying late…. sorry i also did not get any time to go through the
i bought these options at 830 and r currently trading at 800 or so.
my thought was that no matter what over the long term indian market should grow faster than 12%p.a….. hence making it a profitable venture
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 25, 2008 @ 5:45 pm
r u still in korea?
yes life is indeed hectic with me too
so it is ok if u reply late
Comment by prax — March 25, 2008 @ 9:14 pm
yes.
actually my stay got extended by a week and worse that I am working 16 hour a day and weekends too.
btw try to bet on the volatility (only if the option premium is little)… like the way i did 2 months ago… by purchasing both call and put options simultaneously of 27th March ending NIFTY
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — March 26, 2008 @ 2:49 am
Centurion bop how does it look ? it is trading at a disc to hdfc bk as merger rt is 1:29 so this is a lt purchase if positive on hdfc bk what say u
Comment by Prax — April 1, 2008 @ 12:37 am
i would rather wait for the market to bottom out.
because who knows what the price of HDFC be at the time of merger.
BTW how is ur portfolio doing? recovered any losses?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 1, 2008 @ 6:43 am
where do u see the bottom?
my psus r goin nowhere what say u do i sell ongc gail?
the govt will squeeze them
Comment by Prax — April 1, 2008 @ 3:35 pm
rather than the target, I am waiting for the event (formal declaration of recession)
about ONGC, GAIL: future is not very conducive for investments so I won’t hold any stock of a company that I am sure will not give me 100% returns over the next 2 years. (recession would last for atleast 6 months before the bulls return to the market)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 1, 2008 @ 4:19 pm
u got ur announcement - bernanke made some kind of an announcement yesterday
What do u think about govt policy
the inflation is close to 7% and govt is using old formula
of cutting the mkt prices of imp components of wpi
even tata steel is now being pushed to reduce steel prices
so the pvt cos are not that independent or out of reach of regulation now
Comment by Prax — April 3, 2008 @ 3:50 pm
i am in singapore right now… visiting deadman
about market, trust me if you have some patience you might soon get a good buying opportunity soon. in this market condition, it might be best to take a couple of weeks off
btw sptulsian is going paid…. why can’t the guy just put some goodle adds
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 5, 2008 @ 6:40 am
i was expecting that u had flown out of korea, cause of ur late response
deadman? who is he ? a blogger
on tulsian
oh that will be sad, but he has to be affordable else he too will fail…
ur correct on google adds , or any adds for that matter , if the content is good
Comment by Prax — April 5, 2008 @ 2:18 pm
he comments once or twice on ENagar. he is the guy who initially introduced me to blogging (and also for the past 7 years has been a great friend to me).
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 5, 2008 @ 10:05 pm
good to hear about such a long friendship
well what r u upto these days ??
staying put or planning to re-buy and average?
soros is out with a warning that things are much worse than what is being made out
Comment by prax — April 10, 2008 @ 12:26 pm
as Soros is hinting, the best time is yet to come. I think i will wait for another month or so before doing the next round of purchase. Things are yet not very cheep these days.
Also I need to spend atleast 2 weeks to get myself abreast with the latest developments and opportunities.
so u can say that I am just browsing and window shopping at the moment.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 10, 2008 @ 12:36 pm
same here
wat say u
im planning to sell some stuff nearabout 16000 if the indl stocks scream sell me
there is a lot of bad news on tata steel u could pick more when it goes down further
Comment by prax — April 10, 2008 @ 4:33 pm
which stocks r u planning to sell….
in today’s market a blanket sell/buy would be disastrous… one has to scrutinize the merits of each scrip very meticulously.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 10, 2008 @ 5:00 pm
oil cos ongc etc and some kachra scripts uti mf holdings etc
Comment by prax — April 10, 2008 @ 5:28 pm
as i see it mkts are moving between 14600 and 16000
Comment by prax — April 10, 2008 @ 5:28 pm
with price restrictions and stuff it does not make much sense to hold the PSU and esp the Oil stocks. and i also agree that markets should lie within this band for another couple of months … only after the clouds of recession r over will the things looks rosy
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 10, 2008 @ 6:06 pm
govt bans all cement exports
the aunty gandhi has done it again (a dig on uncle sam)
we should search of govt intervention free stocks !
what do u think about liquor stocks??
Comment by prax — April 11, 2008 @ 3:35 pm
//govt bans all cement exports//
does india even export cement?
but yes the export restrictions on food grains, steel, cement etc is going to hurt the long term profitability of the industry. Why does not india simply allow INR to appreciate. it would solve all our problems of inflations and shortage.
//we should search of govt intervention free stocks !
what do u think about liquor stocks??//
i like your sarcasm… liquor trade in india is one of the most regulated and over taxed one.
http://money.rediff.com/money/jsp/co_results_q.jsp?companyCode=11090007
Also UB looks too expensive for me to even add it to my watch list. which stock are you looking for.
but I agree that with the growing purchasing power, the IMFL consumption is steadily increasing. but I really need to find a good management who is willing to share the profits with the retail investors.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 11, 2008 @ 3:47 pm
yes ambuja does a lot of exports and has commitments
it is cheaper to ship stuff out for them
but still liquor makes money - what do u propose?
the best way is to start an illegal daru bhatti
maybe high grade one on the lines of grass growing in
pvt homes in us ??
hic - do u remember the golmaal scene
Comment by Prax — April 11, 2008 @ 4:03 pm
//he best way is to start an illegal daru bhatti//
actually i did spend 2 years doing the feasibility study and some experiments with the idea. but dropped it because i needed some like minded people who could work hard to achieve the goal. but the best part was that i did not lose too much money there and I have a feeling that once i can recoup and start again from there.
//yes ambuja does a lot of exports and has commitments//
ya ambuja exports 15% of its produce. but then its the only company that is exporting. and that too because of its Foreign promoters.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 11, 2008 @ 4:27 pm
but it is the sentiment international that takes a hit dont u think
Comment by Prax — April 11, 2008 @ 4:38 pm
i agree, no doubt about that this step would tweak the demand and supply to create cement excess and forcing the companies to either reduce prices or reduce production or both.
however u know that EOD its the hard numbers that determine the long term growth of a company and not the sentiments. so I won’t write of Ambuja Cement so soon (i don’t like ACC or Indian Cement that much to keep it as a part of my watch list)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 11, 2008 @ 4:44 pm
im not talkg abt the co per say im talkg about the economy and the negative signal to the whole market
on actually i did spend 2 years doing the feasibility study and some experiments with the idea.
u never cease to amaze me !!
Comment by prax — April 11, 2008 @ 5:11 pm
in the era of laissez-faire, any regulation or rule is a bad news. but the real problem is that this time world might witness the worst form of recession Stagflation. and unfortunately the government babus are ill equipped to even understand the complexities involves and what is the best course to take.
//u never cease to amaze me !!//
liquor was my first love and spending 2 years in refining my brewing skills is a small price to pay for it. the only problem I faced was that I had underestimated the organizational challenges involved and also lacked the commitment required to quit a full time job to pursue the hobby.
but as people always say, we learn more from our mistakes than from our successes.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 11, 2008 @ 5:23 pm
http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/apr/11magic.htm
read the comments
people are pissed
Comment by prax — April 11, 2008 @ 5:34 pm
i agree on ur babus have no clue -they don’t care either
so they resort to shutdown of the system -
thats why it takes rbi permission 21 days for money transfer
and the banks make a lot of hay here
but this is a world economy not 1990s and with the indira governance
style this country can go into some deep shit
nyways what did u brew??
Comment by prax — April 11, 2008 @ 5:40 pm
i brewed mead http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mead
a batch takes 6 months to develop full taste and since I had no reference to compare to it was hard initially.
but what i really want to do is to restart the entire project again.
btw you used to talk about all the experiences that you had over the years which a normal 9-5 salaried guy can never dream off. can you share some
//people are pissed//
well they should be. Inflation is the time to increase production, setup new plans and develop infrastructure. and by export ban and price restrictions government discourages the pvt sector for capacity expansion. hence making a temporary demand supply mismatch perennial.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 11, 2008 @ 5:46 pm
hmm i think i wasted a lot of my time doin things that paid little
as i see i regret my path - sometimes i think im a dumb fool
i think u have more useful experience
Comment by prax — April 11, 2008 @ 5:56 pm
dude when 90% of the people try to write their biography, they end up saying I worked from dawn to Midnight 5-6 days a week for 40 years. I am sure you would have a better biography to write. also this varied experience gives you a perspective which I or any other regular guy does not have. I agree that in india street smartness is not valued a lot, but that does not mean that they r smarter than the regular folks
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 11, 2008 @ 6:22 pm
btw what is ur opinion about tata motors….
due you think it can successfully execute the nano as well as rover project that it has committed itself to. because if it can then the company would be worth 2 times in 1-2 years.. else i do not think the company can ever recover
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 13, 2008 @ 10:53 am
tata motors
ummm i think that is the million dollar qn
i think that rata tata will make sure that the nano gets a good opening– now i cant talk about success until it reaches the market - time will tell
on the rover and brit acq - he is ready to give it a lot of time but it will be a challanging cookie
Worse tata wants to retire young
who will follow — noel tata ?
Comment by Prax — April 14, 2008 @ 2:40 am
exactly most people say that this time tatas have chewed more than they can bite….
but i am wondering what if they prove these analysts wrong?
ya Neol Tata or any change in leadership is scary… so weighing the pros and cons, what would be ur take on the stock?
BTW read the 3rd para http://www.livemint.com/2008/04/14012817/Cement-export-ban-is-hardly-re.html
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 14, 2008 @ 8:05 am
on cement bans —- dude it is a signal to the corporates of other basic materials - a veiled threat
fall in line or else - and cement is the best way to do it cause the damage is minimum. have u read the latest swaminomics article about nations’ hoarding
no wonder the 3rd line makes sense
currently on tata motors im neutral - if the nano is a big hit and tatas successfully ramp up production and sell in INDIA and also use the new acq and other methods to export it at a decent PROFIT
then im positive else i am negative.
But Ratan is a revolutionary person he changed the flagging fortunes of tisco and telco when they were in the doldrums - i had sold tisco at Rs80 as it never moved up for a long long time
Comment by Prax — April 15, 2008 @ 12:49 am
in those days the entire steel industry was a write off… my father had bought a thousand SAIL shares at 8/- (and until 6 months ago, he was still holding a bulk of them)
but ya what you say makes sense, TELCO is a high risk stock and Nano is not expected to make any profits in the first 6 months. (maybe more)
I took your advise and bought only 50 TELCO shares at 609/- + brokerage(instead of 200 which I and previously thought of buying) Man thats my first trade in 5 weeks.. its good to be back
cement bans… i hope the govt does realize that this threat is sending negative signals to the entire industry
I updated my portfolio with purchase price… Don’t laugh at my foolishness, I think I got over confident and bought most of my current holdings at a ridiculously high price.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 15, 2008 @ 7:34 am
dont worry i wont
i prefer laughing at my own mistakes and i have made a lot many…
on cement the govt really doesn’t care
short term politics is what still bring them votes
Comment by Prax — April 15, 2008 @ 11:06 pm
Was looking at your portfolio and I am feeling better about my investing skill after a long time… I started investig as an ameture around 2003 and was seriously investing from some time mid 2004 … Below is my Protfolio summary:
Value at Cost Value At Market Price Realized Profit/Loss Unrealized Profit/Loss
1,038,201.63 1,283,355.45 199,760.19 245,153.82
What do you say?
Comment by Basu — April 18, 2008 @ 1:59 am
a profit of 4.5L or 45% is a handsome return
ne tips sugesstions about where to put my money and which stocks in my current portfolio should i avoid?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 18, 2008 @ 8:10 am
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Columnists/Swaminathan_A_Aiyar/Fiscal_deficit_back_to_record_level/articleshow/2964504.cms
woha!! more inflation ahead for sure
bad news???
Comment by Prax — April 20, 2008 @ 1:34 am
i agree india has made a mockery of fiscal deficit… 10% actual fiscal deficit is definitely higher than the 2.5% which PC claimed… also if you add that the fact that the tax revenue targets set by FM are unachievable,
the best way india can get rid of inflation and reduce the oil bonds burden is by allowing to INR to appreciate… indians would also be happy with it because then their purchasing power would increase dramatically….
but otherwise inflation would be good for your stocks….
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 20, 2008 @ 3:40 pm
but otherwise inflation would be good for your stocks…. ??
how???
Comment by Prax — April 20, 2008 @ 4:16 pm
well what does inflation mean?
now if u have invested in bonds/fd/cash then inflation would eat into it.. and inflation is a terrible loss to u
the value of money decreases while value of assets and produce increases. so essentially the value of stocks and their profits increases.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 20, 2008 @ 4:51 pm
what is ur say on the sensex now? im confused by short term signals
Comment by Prax — April 21, 2008 @ 3:08 pm
Prax…
honestly these days I am taking some time off from the market. primarily because over the past 6 months or so it had grown from a healthy hobby to an obsession which was giving me nightmares.
but its good to know that inspite of the fact that the undercurrent is low the stock market is going up.. for the first time in almost 7 weeks I am seeing my losses to be < 1L (it was 2.5L during the worst period)
so I am happy. I am thinking of booking some profit in India Glycol (although i think the stock still has a lot of potential to go up)
also I have kind of lost my trust in Morgan Stanley (which has underperformed over the past 6 months) so I would be looking for a honorable way to exit that.
I also feel that I am overexposed in Mundra.. so I should be selling 50 of them anytime soon.
about the Sensex.. a lot would depend on how good or bad the year end results of the company are (most of them r yet to announce it)….
but honestly if you are sitting with cash (and I am sure a wise man like you would be) then I would still recommend you to be very selective in your pickings… and save the most for the day when official recession is declared.
if you are siting with underperformers.. then this baseless short term upswing is the best time to exit.
gist is.. sit with bluechips or stocks which you really believe in.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 21, 2008 @ 3:33 pm
true very true
that is some sane/rational thinking thanks
it is too hot these days ,,,cant think rationally in this heat
on inflation the value increase is a bit zero sum dont u think?
yes it benefits some sectors but with inflation cost of debt goes up
and with it in the current scenario the value of banks, auto etc
and many industries goes down
Comment by Prax — April 21, 2008 @ 3:46 pm
//with inflation cost of debt goes up//
i thought u liked economics…
well dude lets assume that an object costs 100/- today and you buy it on a 10% interest rate. so your cost of debt was 10%…
now if you have a 7% inflation, then next year the same object will cost 107/-. while after interest u had to pay just 110/- so your cost of debt went down from 10% to just 3%.
//on inflation the value increase is a bit zero sum dont u think?//
not exactly…
if the company is highly leveraged, or it has a lot of assets/inventory etc. then it will benefit from inflation. if it is sitting with stock piles of cash (TCS/INFOSYS etc) then it would be at a loss.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 21, 2008 @ 5:06 pm
i am thinking of reducing my exposure.. most likely i would be selling 50 ICICI Bank, 50 mundra port and would square off 50 2010 options.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 28, 2008 @ 7:02 am
why so ? r u getting bearish
nifty has broken out on the positive side again
i dont know how long it will last
as it depends upon fed and rbi policy
on inflation i agree - i was talkg in a macro sense - some win some loose kinda thing
tech - real estate - 2 /4 wheeler vehicles etc will loose
cap goods and fmcg might gain
u enjoy ur holiday
Comment by Prax — April 28, 2008 @ 7:30 pm
ps selling some icici wont be a bad idea
derivative trades for smaller corporates can hit the bank this quarter
Comment by Prax — April 28, 2008 @ 8:12 pm
i had bought these stocks at real distress times and since the market has turn bullish i think its good to encash the profits partially.
i agree about the other sectors, but i think 4 wheelers esp telco might gain (but it is a high risk proposition).
i am selling icici bank because the stock dilution has taken away all the profits that i am making. the bank has had several fpos in past and is looking to sell off its subsidiary again as soon as the market turns bullish.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 29, 2008 @ 8:32 am
do u think that the current policy stance of the rbi is enough to curtail inflation? crr is up quarter point - tonite looks like the fed will announce another rate cut
looks like the battered banks are up thanks to no change in repo/revrepo rates
how do u see this scenario playing on bank stocks which are primary loosers after this marginal hike?
Comment by prax — April 29, 2008 @ 5:16 pm
keep me informed - im planning to sell whatever remains with me to go nil on icici if it reaches decent levels
Comment by prax — April 29, 2008 @ 5:17 pm
rbi and indian credit policy is a big joke.
i have written repeatedly that indian financial reporting needs a major overhaul before i can take the reported numbers even with a pinch of salt.
1) as an investor why r u worried about inflation… infact i had proved it to you that it is beneficial for your portfolio (but not to you)
2) CRR cut is crap, esp when most of banks r PSU which have the sole business of mopping up all the free liquidity and reinvesting it in govt bonds. so CRR or no CRR about half of their portfolio would be in treasury. so actually CRR Makes no difference in spite of all the hue and cry that these banks make.
3) i am not aware of the interest rate cut. (although i have been waiting for it for 6 months now) . yesterday was an important policy announcement and RBI was silent about interest rates.
about ICICI Bank. i agree that 920/- is a good price. however i am still holding some 100 of them because maybe in future when its subsidiaries goes for IPO there might be another price surge.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 29, 2008 @ 6:02 pm
what do u think is the future of infy and other tech cos in the medium term
do you have a sell or hold call?
plus on icici it will fall again and we can get it at cheaper prices
Comment by Prax — April 30, 2008 @ 1:46 am
the debt/bond mkts are shallow and the corporate bonds share is miniscule. the mkt is heavily controlled by the govt
little wonder it is still the biggest borrower in the country
i see interest rate or plr increase - no cuts
have a post in draft will post later after fine tuning it
Comment by Prax — April 30, 2008 @ 1:49 am
tech cos will be able to sustain their revenues and even provide with a some revenue growth in spite of all the ir vices. i even wrote a post on it.
but their toughest challenge will come because of their huge manpower and low productivity and if they do not mend their ways soon they will fade away in 10 years.
to explain u… each one of TCS, INFY, and WIPRO employees more engineers yet don’t even have 5% of its revenue (i will post a detailed post on 5th march 2008 to clarify)
ICICI is a speculative stock… i won’t be surprised if it jumps 5% in any single day. if u can time it right great (today’s price as i have said is a good price to sell) i am these days busy creating a big cash reserve for a great buy.
PLR is a joke… nobody refers to that figures anymore. in developed world PLR means the best interest rate u can get.. but in india that means the worst rate u can get.. everybody gets a discount.
CRR is again meaningless because almost all the funds of the banks anyways sits with govt.
i am these days so much frustrated with govt measures and reporting that i can write a book on deception of our govt…
but i will wait for ur post. let me know when u publish it
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 30, 2008 @ 2:07 am
ill post it by this evening
Comment by Prax — April 30, 2008 @ 9:24 am
i have got the feeds for stock chat workg
i added the meta widget
http://techntrek.wordpress.com/stock-chat/feed
Comment by Prax — April 30, 2008 @ 9:42 am
great. i wonder how u did it.
btw i sold another 50 mundra. and i was going through various newspapers and *fundamental* analysts, almost everybody suggested wait and watch approach. and i myself could not find any blue chip company which does not have a substantial risk of downside.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 30, 2008 @ 10:13 am
i have 150+ infy 5YR + HOLDING and now that it is at gates of 1800 what say u ??
my pp should be close to 1150 post adjustment
plus the govt can get desp if it fails karnataka and if the oil keeps climbing the rbi would have no option but to let rupee float to 36/35
i was an idiot not to sell above Rs 2000 when i had the chance
i dont want to have zero rtns on a 5yr+ holding
ur holding broadcom us and us software will have the best env now due to the falling dollar
im posting in a few minutes
Comment by Prax — April 30, 2008 @ 2:12 pm
what do u think about ongc too? see any further scope
what is ur gut feel cause ur building ur war chest
will the mkts tank and when do u expect them to??
Comment by Prax — April 30, 2008 @ 2:14 pm
Prax..
is trading at 1,781.00 a premium of about 11/- rupees from the spot price. so by the looks of it in the near term the stock should go up. (with regular disclaimers)
i was looking at the derivatives to get an idea of what the punters think of the stock
the 31st july futures (FUT-INFTEC-31-Jul-200
on a real serious note…. 150+ infy shares is a lot of money… i know it hurts when one cannot even get a chance to get the interest back but the wise thing would be to make amends asap. if i were u, i would sell atleast 50 of them whenever the stock peaks (week high is always good enough for me) and rest i would schedule for systematic disinvestment plan.
about govt…. read this article http://www.livemint.com/2008/04/22000531/Doubting-Dabur.html
it tells you how low we indians rank in ethics and honestly. you have better odds in reading a girl’s mind than the govt’s mind. (i hope ruhi and other feminists do not read this comment) with the fiscal deficit going as high as 10% indian rupee is getting thrashed… i won’t be surprised if S&P downgrades our treasury bonds to below investment grade. although interest rates give us an indication of appreciating currency, i believe that the world is fed up with indian lies and hence the Rupee would fall to 41 levels. (and yes my views are always opposite to the popular views, and so r my points/arguments)
my BRCM stocks.. well this stock has zoomed up from 16 to 28 in less than 6 months (a remarkable feat for US company which is larger than any of the Indian IT firms in revenue) but i have to buy their shares out of compulsion and I do a systematic disinvestment every now and then and most likely i would do another sale in another 2 weeks. over the past 3 years i have booked losses as well as profits.. and have never attached too much affection to the PP…
about ONGC… my father is bullish and has a substantial investment.. while i am bearish…
his arguments… production cost is minuscule while even after all the discounts that govt offers, the sale price is linked with world prices.. the world prices have gone up 2 folds, but the company valuation did not.. hence it has a potential of upside. plus it pays a healthy dividend …
about my warchest.. well these days i am unable to find a good stock where i can park my funds in.. hence i am keeping it in FD.. to me risk of downside is very scary.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 30, 2008 @ 2:56 pm
on dabur
thats nothing dude people cooly trade on insider info using a relatives account
it is an open secret, a friends relative used to work at dabur and she did trade on insider info
Comment by Prax — April 30, 2008 @ 3:26 pm
and u think its a small issue… criminal charges need to be pressed against these guys… we indians govt, institutions as well as individuals lack ethics and honesty…
neways i think my frustration is primarily because of the fact that i have not made any trade in over 2 months and i cannot spot one also
but the good news is that my losses r totally under control
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — April 30, 2008 @ 3:50 pm
thats not all even budget papers reach the influential before the speech starts sometimes …. so the rot is very deep
Comment by Prax — April 30, 2008 @ 4:28 pm
i know… hey what do u think about Alok industries… i am again tempted to buy 1-2k of its stock, but i am not sure its profits r not rising as fast as its revenues… plus the foray into infrastructure looks a bit odd
infy PE is now 22-23.. which is quite high… plus looking at the past record i think i would sell 100 shares
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 1, 2008 @ 9:26 am
thanks for the infy tip
on alok -what are ur motives trading or investment?
it is a core textile company - best among the lot - with a great growth last yr- which i doubt it will sustain- a plus - promoters have upped stake
neg it sells to big us retailers and can be negatively impacted by slowdown
or by rupee appreciation if and when it comes
and its it has to still develop a retail chain in India
For a longer term buy on dips - trading u take a call cause i have never looked at that scripts breakout/ range figures
the markets confuse me - at one end the fed has hinted no further rate cuts which are a plus for software stocks
the domestic situation can worsen due to Elections !
rbi will still have problems as oil will be dictated by dollar decline as neither the fed nor the state sec are commenting on strengthening the dollar and mkts are anxious as tax refunds will be spent on food gas and payback of debt fueling recession
fii numbers suggest they are trading the mkts too as there are no substantial buyers
Comment by Prax — May 1, 2008 @ 9:32 pm
//the markets confuse me //
:)) welcome to the world… i am seriously thinking that its high time we should go back to school and learn the new tricks of the trade… in today’s world its hard to get people’s respect unless u r an MBA or a businessman..
most of my investment are a proprietary mixture of fundamental as well as technical analysis… my logic is that if the stock makes good technical sense then i can churn my money faster… and if by some circumstances the stock does not respond as anticipated then also i am not forced to liquidate my position and book losses because the stock is destined to do good in the long term.
i.e. all that matters in stock market is what scrip you buy and at what price.
about Alok…
the stock is at a PE of 6 and textile had have its fair share of bad years. so some time in the future the sector should go for re rating and when it does Alok being the best firm in the sector should give stellar returns.
but the whole question is what should be the best entry price?
and how much the stock would take a beating because of its diversification.
elections
beware, politicians get fits of insanity during this time
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 1, 2008 @ 11:17 pm
sold 106 BRCM shares…
will be selling another 150 in a week ….
what do you think is the fed rate cut to 2% have an impact on indian stocks.. sell/buy/hold?
the war chest i am preparing at the moment is to fund my plans to pursue MBA from IIM L. its a scary thought to be jobless for 2 years and incur a needless financial burden of 30L… but if that is what it takes for me to better understand the market then so be it.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 2, 2008 @ 12:53 am
u can always pick up a tiny lot, then once its in ur pf u can keep adding to it
a good indicator for me is the 3 mth chart visa vis the nse/bse it gives u a good short term idea…
Comment by prax — May 2, 2008 @ 1:21 am
impact on indian stocks
too many variables - the jobs data is bad up 10% - see what happens to the hsi
- as i said - im confused the markets confuse me
Comment by prax — May 2, 2008 @ 1:24 am
//u can always pick up a tiny lot, then once its in ur pf u can keep adding to it//
i will do that. i have put triggers for tomorrow..
//a good indicator for me is the 3 mth chart visa vis the nse/bse it gives u a good short term idea…//
the stock should underperform/outperform the index? plz explain… i also use a similar primitive charting mechanism but i would like to hear about the finer points from you.
i agree markets r confusing and indian markets unpredictable…. but i am not going to sue u if your analysis went wrong.. last month the US gdp growth rate was 0.6%… amazing for US standards.. so recession news won’t be coming in 2008.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 2, 2008 @ 1:34 am
i chk out the moneycontrol charts
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/companydetails/histdata.php
buying / selling opportunities come when the stock is close to crossover visa vis the sensex
primitive but quite effective sometimes
Comment by Prax — May 2, 2008 @ 8:23 am
the link may not work cause of javascript
Comment by Prax — May 2, 2008 @ 8:24 am
http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?autono=321699&leftnm=2&subLeft=0&chkFlg=
diktats thick n fast
we have a superceo fm
Comment by Prax — May 2, 2008 @ 8:27 am
//buying / selling opportunities come when the stock is close to crossover visa vis the sensex
primitive but quite effective sometimes//
hmm… that makes a lot sense… what i used to see that if the stock is at a 1-2 month low, then it is probably right priced and has greater chance of a upside.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 2, 2008 @ 10:42 am
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/market-outlook/worst-not-overinflation-remains-concernramesh-damani/13/15/336218
if yamada be trusted things rnt great - from rsd chat with yamada
Comment by Prax — May 2, 2008 @ 12:47 pm
its a nice article thanks
i will read your mail later and comment on it
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 2, 2008 @ 3:52 pm
wow… with the INR touching 41, inflation is going to get only worse….
kya hoga is desh ka
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 6, 2008 @ 8:57 pm
yes indeed the govt is in for trouble and so is mr y v reddy
his policy of towing the gov line is going to aid inflation
point to note $121 is the rate of oil now
would seriously think of selling infy at 1800s+ now
what is to happen to interest rates?
well even if the fms lungi keeps him cool in delhi
the inflation will make sure he gets a lot of heat from his
best supporters - the commi bunch
Comment by Prax — May 6, 2008 @ 11:34 pm
interesting stuff
http://seekingalpha.com/article/75787-money-inflation-deflation-and-gold
http://seekingalpha.com/article/75571-fading-glory-the-dollar-as-the-world-s-reserve-currency
Comment by prax — May 7, 2008 @ 12:35 pm
with iran abandoning dollar trade http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=5094.3370.0.0
there is only 1 questions in my mind: How long will IRAN last. Saddam tried the same tactic and America bombed it to stone age.
but yes i agree i am also trying to liuqidate my US assets as soon as possible. unfortunately i want to park them in Euros and I am finding no path through which I could safely and legally do that.
inflation is scaring me also.
but the article which you pointed out can be easily explained if you agree that the wealth is being created. you buy a 10/- canvas, pour some paint worth 40/- and sell it for a 1000/- 950/- is created in the system and this is the basis of all economic progress
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 7, 2008 @ 2:28 pm
another example is potato chips potatoes oil salt spicing abd an 80% markup
fabulous aint it ?
Comment by Prax — May 7, 2008 @ 4:12 pm
exactly and this is another reason why i hate the high school economics..
they keep on insisting that wealth is in the land.. and is unlocked by mining/drilling minerals/oil or via agriculture… they go go great pains in making us aware of what mineral wealth can be found where….
but they never bother to tell us where can we find the human and intellectual capital… where the productivity is high.. because that is where the real wealth is created.
in other words, the revenue (let alone the profits) from an piece of agriculture land is never sufficient to pay off the interest cost of the land. there is poverty in indian villages because of this reason and not because of the 1000s reasons which india lists.
all across the world the areas with mineral wealth (except gold and oil) are the poorest regions of the wealth. while the richest regions of the world are those with high productivity and intellectual capital
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 7, 2008 @ 4:47 pm
did u try the moneyoga pf ? its great
secondly im really really tempted to start selling infy
what say u?
if the dollar keeps its pace of falling to the rupee i think it would be great
and infy will run up to 2000 only prob here is oil and rbi action on the peg front what say u do i start selling in lots say from trrow on?
Comment by Prax — May 8, 2008 @ 1:00 pm
prax..
u have a LOT of infy shares… and hence i would recommend that instead of selling in one go, stage the process and book profits systematically when the prices start looking right.
I have not used Moneyyoga yet, but by the looks of it it seems good. plus it has a provision for f&O…. i will try making a portfolio over the weekend. (and my portfolio would be public as usual)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 8, 2008 @ 1:50 pm
today i was going through all the transactions i had made. and to my surprise majority the shares (which did not belong to the A group) are trading at half of the price at which i had last transacted. its amazing and surprising that how come i was able to sell them in time…
I will call it beginners luck, because had i not sold them off the moment i could make some profit i would be stuck with bits a pieces of useless scrips. and to my wonder I had a logical reason for buying each and every one of them (3-6 months ago)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 8, 2008 @ 5:56 pm
welcome to the indian markets
u were darn lucky i got my timing wrong by two days ..
no wonder u cant ever time the markets accurately
Comment by Prax — May 9, 2008 @ 12:42 am
what timing of urs went wrong? which date?
but i must tell you I used to enjoy thee fluctuations in the market.. these days markets are flat and my interest has waned.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 9, 2008 @ 2:23 pm
well u sold a tonne of stocks at the right time
i waited 2 more days and the mkt tanked bigtime
Comment by Prax — May 11, 2008 @ 2:02 am
same here. I am stuck with all these stocks. and i do not think i would be able to offload them for another 6 months
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 11, 2008 @ 7:42 am
yes that is because u caught the first big wave down not the second one
when markets fall there are normally 2 or 3 waves down then it is time to
buy shares
but the first wave down is the biggest and catching it when most well paid fund managers didnt is commendable
Comment by Prax — May 12, 2008 @ 12:12 pm
fund managers can never tap the market fluctuations correctly. because to do that, they need to sit with stockpiles of cash.. which would raise eyebrows.
these open ended funds usually sells when the market is low and buys when the market is at its peak (because the bulk of subscribers pour in money/withdraw like that). Hence its makes it very tough to predict which fund would do good or bad during turbulent times.
about catching the wave… In india we were lucky, the the last 3-5 first big wave were always good buying opportunity. but in US and other markets this is not necessarily true… after the first fall, the markets only gradually continue to fall.
BTW: sold all the 100 mundra shares, and sold 224 Broadcom Shares. You did something about the INFY Shares?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 12, 2008 @ 2:41 pm
sold 60 TISCO (because of all the govt controls and unfavorable market developments) and bought a 1000 ALOK Textiles shares
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 13, 2008 @ 3:41 pm
why alok ? short term bet?
Comment by Prax — May 13, 2008 @ 9:56 pm
idea is to sell 500 when it hits 70+ or so (it is already up 5% today) and rest i would keep till it touches 100
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 14, 2008 @ 3:04 pm
fiis r selling Indian stocks and buying forward dollars
Comment by prax — May 15, 2008 @ 12:03 pm
yups, i am also suspecting the same… but the indian stock market should not witness a major downside in the coming weeks.
BTW booked 17.6k in profit in india glycols, and put a trigger at 900 for TISCO
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 15, 2008 @ 12:19 pm
Hi Ankur,
I’m a silent reader of your blog. As you are an expert in financial dealings, let me ask you this. According to you, which is the best for a DMAT and trading(broker) account?
Thanks.
Comment by Praveen S — May 15, 2008 @ 2:45 pm
@praveen…
I am no expert.. just someone who loves to take risks and try new stuff.
I use ICICIDirect (slightly more expensive), while my friend Prax uses Kotak Mahindra Bank for demat services and both of us are satisfied with their services. Some of my friends have moved to India Bulls and find it to be a good and yet economical service.
Just make sure your trading account is linked with your bank account and that should be good enough
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 15, 2008 @ 3:43 pm
ankur i use kotak sec which is almost as pricy as icici but the online platform service is much better..and sometimes sharekhan
on ibulls be sure u deal with the main broker not a dsa cause ive heard of staff abusing demat acs of clients and trading on their names for which ibulls was pulled up before
Comment by Prax — May 16, 2008 @ 4:08 am
inflation inching to 8%
dude this is now out of the rbi and fms control
Comment by Prax — May 16, 2008 @ 3:21 pm
again its the WPI that has touched 8%, CPI was always in double digits….
well thats exactly that you, I and everybody else was warning about for months now…
i think it might not be too late to go and buy grains for the rest of the year
BTW bought 60 Edelweiss shares for long term and 50 Kesoram industries (think that inflation would boast commodities shares)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 16, 2008 @ 3:47 pm
till when will the rbi wait to push a crr cut ? and do u think currency
will be allowed to go up against the dollar?
the fiis are selling slowly thanks to adverse conditions this has to impact
for me infy is goin up, was stupid not to sell ongc above 1000
what do u think time i start selling infy in small lots? some people estimate the rupee to goto 45 in short term which means infy touching 2000
what do yot think about the us scenario ?
Comment by Prax — May 16, 2008 @ 7:42 pm
Let me put it this way,
Chidambran is not only become insane, but he has also lost his integrity.
Depreciating the rupee is the worst that govt do to its citizens and it is happening. double digit Fiscal deficit, and hoarding of forex by GoI would lead to hyperinflation.. something that i am strongly suspecting….
what i would say is go buy enough foodgrains to last for the rest of the year… that would be your best investment. otherwise go and invest in commodities (esp ones that are free from govt regulation)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 16, 2008 @ 7:56 pm
u said it dude, the same thing was going thru my head
first it was mr man now its the fm going about explaining things
the supposed dream team doing just what they were not meant to
no wonder i wonder i think people might vote them out
Comment by Prax — May 17, 2008 @ 12:13 am
lets wait for the karnataka poll results….
i somehow feel people care the least about what economic policies of center are
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 17, 2008 @ 2:00 am
true , but they do worry about their daily essentials
Comment by Prax — May 17, 2008 @ 3:27 pm
did you look at IL&FS Investmart Ltd. within a month before the acquisition by HSBC, the stock price nearly doubled from 110 levels to 200/- levels… there is just too much insider trading in indian markets
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 17, 2008 @ 4:37 pm
Look at Rohit Ferro Tech, and probably something similar is cooking. I haven’t bought the stock, looks expensive to me! Tell me what you guys think of it.
Comment by rambodoc — May 18, 2008 @ 3:06 pm
if u have not bought the stock till now, then probably u r too late
the stock has already risen 2 folds over the past 1 months and is trading at all time high
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 18, 2008 @ 11:39 pm
i was seeing the prog on cnbc with ramesh s damani chatting up experts today at 11.30 and ms yamada was on.. she gave some interesting insights
she was saying that firm base for the sensex is 12500 and the sensex can go up from here
she is estimating that gold will go up from here and so will oil , confirming murthys super spike theory
ankur on ilfs, nothing new but will it be pinnable when things like this happens routinely
http://www.suchetadalal.com/articles/display/2762/2802.article
on first reading i agree with u on rohit, ankur cause it has run up too much
news on this script is that of purchase of land at haldia. The Company is proposing to setup this new project with 6 (Six) 9 MVA furnaces wherein the product mix proposed is Silico Manganese, Ferro Manganese and Ferro Silicon.
but as the script is in specialised stee?l a hot sector these days it could run up further, remember the case of essar oil? a deeper study is needed on why it has climbed up so
Comment by Prax — May 19, 2008 @ 1:02 am
i somehow am more optimistic than her… 12k might be too low.. and if the index reaches that level, i think i will buy a lot of long term call options of NIFTY.
BTW sold off all the TISCO shares.
about essar oil.. i had predicted 6 months ago http://enagar.com/2007/11/17/essar-oil/ that the company can never float its shares in US market and even today there is no talk about it… so rarely do these tips make money for the investors who enter late
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 20, 2008 @ 11:58 am
she is quite optimistic and says that the dow n snp will move sideways have stocks that mutually cancel out …
she holds 12500 as a strong base for the sensex to be in bullish zone
below it means that there are real bearish signals
onessar i just talked about the phenomenal stock price rise , from being in the Rs 2 to Rs 8 zone for a long time it crossed 250 now
i didnt talk about its crappy mgmt
Comment by Prax — May 20, 2008 @ 5:03 pm
I cannot even compare the management and the compliance norms of India with the rest of the world.
The SEC has charged and forced resignation of CEO Henry T. Nicholas, CFO William J. Ruehle, chairman and chief technology officer Henry Samueli, and general counsel David Dull over the stock options backdating scandal…
and I am sure that indian companies can get away with even murder… and misusing the fiduciary responsibilities is a common occurrence
21st June: sold 500 Alok Industries shares
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 20, 2008 @ 5:12 pm
The economy is in a mess and ive no doubt that wpi inflation is gonna touch double digits very soon, rupee at 44 and oil navratnas are becoming nangaratnas sooner than estimated
what is ur call on tech stocks - u have a better perspective
do i start dumping my stocks and tech mf
Comment by Prax — May 22, 2008 @ 1:35 pm
and worse oil and gold are both rising which means dollar is going to the dogs
Comment by Prax — May 22, 2008 @ 1:36 pm
infy touched 1900 today… but with rupee devaluation people expect it to touch 2000/- however i would strongly recommend that in a month or two (max) get rid of technology… because sooner or later other countries would be able to provide more cost effective solution and indian companies r not able to control cost effectively because of lack of supply of under graduates
about investment….
try buying some commodities stock ( i have yet not zeroed down a good one) the inflation that currency depreciation and high oil/gold prices will cause should benefit them
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 22, 2008 @ 3:02 pm
hey thanks,
what do u think about basmati rice exporters like satnam overseas etc
what about gold etf ???
Comment by Prax — May 22, 2008 @ 3:38 pm
honestly commodities stocks are very tricky… most of them have high inventory levels whose details are hard to guess and and the price which one should pay depends on that…. man sometimes i feel i could have access to these insider info
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 22, 2008 @ 5:58 pm
my eco predictions r in the money , govt is fudging figures, looks like
http://www.ndtvprofit.com/2008/05/23202815/Is-inflation-inching-closer-to.html
im perplexed about ongc etc psus
is this starting to look like the next big wave down?
what d u think?
Comment by prax — May 23, 2008 @ 11:07 pm
http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/may/23petro1.htm
govt thinks that raising fuel prices by 3-5 paise would be sufficient….
i don’t know about the short term view, but the index is expected to stay low for another year and a half atleast…. but even in a bear market usually 10-25% continue to rise… eg Ranbaxy is on 52 week high
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 23, 2008 @ 11:20 pm
yes that is interesting
tell me what do u think is it the american effect as most drug stocks in us are climbing up these days
Comment by Prax — May 23, 2008 @ 11:24 pm
after reading the contents of ur link
their attitude reminds me of a song of buddy hollys / beatles
lost in (self)love in a fools paradise
as u said - they dont really care about the inflation or the psus health
god save ongc liiks like they will make it share more of the burden
the next logical step if follow the govts logic
its plain and simple survival …
Comment by Prax — May 23, 2008 @ 11:29 pm
as a rule of thumb, i don’t invest in stocks that r at 52 week high… although today morning only my father advised me otherwise….
according to my father, over the past couple of years ranbaxy made considerable investments and around this time most of them would turn profitable….
remember medical research is high risk business.. and somehow indian market has yet not given it appropriate discount.. hence i am staying away
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 23, 2008 @ 11:39 pm
in a be