This page is an open forum to discuss about the short term and long term market strategies, which stock to buy which not to buy. I hope both the readers and I have monetary gains and share their tips/hunch here 
My current portfolio consists of: As on 9th Jan 2008, I have an unrealized profit of 10,000/-
| no. | Stock | no of shares | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Apollo Hospital | 80 | waiting for Medical tourism |
| 2. | TISCO | 100 | Corus group profits should cause rerating of the stock |
| 3. | SCI | 200 | huge cash reserves, good price |
| 4. | Bharti Airtel | 15 | Long term, waiting for the tower sharing to increase the profitability |
| 5. | Clutch Auto | 50 | Industry will recover and be reevaluated |
| 6. | ICICI 10% bonds | 10 | 10 year FD |
| 7. | ICICI Bank | 28 | I Intend to keep it for eternity |
| 8. | Infosys | 6 | The stock has taken adequate beating |
| 9. | Brigade | 27 | listed below issue price |
| 10. | Manaksia Ltd. | 136 | IPO |
| 11. | Ranbaxy | 50 | the stock has taken adequate beating |
| 12. | |||
| 13. | Franklin Templeton Tax Saver Fund | 4577 | Income Tax |
| 14. | Broadcom | 550 | Most aggressive technology company in the world |
| 15. | Morgan Stanley Growth Fund | 1500 | 10% discount from NAV |
| 16. | |||
| 17. | ESSOIL | shortsell | too much hot air |
| 18. | |||
| 19. |
IPOs i have recently applied to/will apply
1) Mahindra Resorts
2) MCX
3) Oil India
4) UTI MF
Stocks Which I am tracking:
1) Tata Motors (to make a really diversified portfolio which could possibly give stellar returns, Automobile industry is important. I am just waiting for the right entry price
Websites:
1) My transaction history (password protected)
2) Bloomberg India
3) MoneyControl
4) ICICIDirect
5) Rediff Money
6) Google Finance
7) NSE IPO Status
8. Seeking Alpha
9) Live Mint
PS: I am not a professional analyst nor I have had any formal training in Finance. Stock Market is just a Hobby which pays for all my other hobbies.
Good initiative. I’ll ask my mom to take a look
and probably comment.
Comment by ruhi — October 27, 2007 @ 11:32 pm
thanks…
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — October 27, 2007 @ 11:41 pm
IPO UPdates:
A lot of issues have come to the market simultaneously… that it is creating cash flow problems for IPO investors like myself. Here is where i intend to spend the 400k over the next week
1) Varun Industries: It is a stainless steel utensils exporter…. who has been hit severely hard by weakening of Dollar, mounting debts and low profit margins…. to make things worse the company is entering new businesses like power generation, mining, oil drilling, and manufacturing…. but the good thing is that this tiny 54cr issue is attractively placed… so only guys with a risk for appetite should go for it.
2) Religare Enterprises: This Ranbaxy promoted brokerage firm has shown some promising growth in the past 1 year.. and unlike its parent company, is doing good… although i do not see substantial listing gains, i would subscribe to the issue and keep 40-50shares for a year or two.
3) Barak Vally Cements: This is a tiny cement manufacturer which has shown consistent performance for the last 5-6 years and enjoys huge subsidies/tax breaks and incentives… Since I believe that the India shining will eventually trickle down beyond the urban centers and NE regions should see massive construction and infrastructure projects in the near future…. i am bullish about this company.
4) Mundra Port: This Adani promoted company is again a must buy. Firstly ports are a bottleneck for all indian exports… ships have to wait for several days to get loaded and unloaded. since like me most people have given up on govt ports… private ports is the only solution … and Adani with their strong management and their history to make money for the investors is a good issue
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — October 28, 2007 @ 2:16 am
yes ranbaxy has gone down the drain
the price it is ruling at now is like the buy price i had got on it 5 yrs ago
plus where do u see the mkts ? my max target 22000
do u see big fii inflows now ?
Comment by Prax — October 30, 2007 @ 1:30 am
unlike the family feud 2 years ago… this fall in ranbaxy’s fortune is due to business cycle… and luckily although their profits are down… the revenue is still up… so one should not write the company off.
//do u see big fii inflows now ?//
according to Alan Greenspan, there is 1/3 probability of a recession in USA. plus with weakening dollar… i see no reason why FII should not flock around indian markets.
//plus where do u see the mkts ?//
but what is interesting is that in the past 3 years, partly due to the euphoria of the boom, and products like SIP and ULIPs, indian mutual fund industry has developed. more and more people, esp those who do not understand the market, are investing and with that the indian stock market has developed and become robust.
so i do not see the market dipping below 18k in the next 3 months or so.
my strategy:
I sold my ICICI, Tamil Naidu Newsprints, and SICAL shares yesterday, bringing my holding to its lowest levels in 2 years. and all the proceeds are locked either in IPOs or in Bonds… so i guess I would have to wait and watch for the next 2-3 weeks before i make any substantial purchase.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — October 30, 2007 @ 7:02 am
what say u relegare 6 times worth an investment ?
ipos u r investing in? update me
Comment by prax — October 31, 2007 @ 1:04 pm
http://enagar.com/stock-chat/#comment-29007
i am investing in all the 4 ipos i listed in comments no 2.
BTW don’t invest all your money here… I am expecting an IPO from Edelweiss Capital (price 825/-) to come… and if the country is able to sustain its Boom, then there will be large no of M&A and soon this investment bank could become a major player in the Indian subcontinent.
//what say u relegare 6 times worth an investment ?//
i have no idea how you came with the figure of 6…. but i would definitely like to keep some religare stocks for a year or 2… for there is still a lot of room for the company to grow and establish itself.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — October 31, 2007 @ 1:19 pm
saw the writeup on mcontrol or some site
thanx
Comment by Prax — November 1, 2007 @ 1:26 am
im investing in relegare and maybe the cement co
i have 50+ ongc and found something interesting
on the 3yr chart u can see a gradual divergence between the stock and sensex
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/companydetails/histdata.php
i want to sell but when cause it is goin up everyday
im planning to sell when it gets as close to sensex as possible
icici is at the 1300 levels almost planning to sell my last 25 now
ny updates ?
Comment by prax — November 1, 2007 @ 12:45 pm
im investing in relegare and maybe the cement co
i have 50+ ongc and found something interesting
on the 3yr chart u can see a gradual divergence between the stock and sensex
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/companydetails/histdata.php
i want to sell but when cause it is goin up everyday
im planning to sell when it gets as close to sensex as possible
icici is at the 1300 levels almost planning to sell my last 25 now
ny updates ?
also what the bike cos bajaj and hero honda
what do u think when will they become contrarian value pics ?
Comment by prax — November 1, 2007 @ 12:46 pm
ongc link
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/oilnaturalgascorporation/ongc/12/56/pricechartquote/marketprice/ONG
How much do u think is a sensible inv to get some allotment in religare?
at least 420 shares and above?
Comment by prax — November 1, 2007 @ 12:59 pm
ONGC…
wow.. I never realized this.. about ONGC, i think you should hang on… when you see the oil futures trading below the current price… you can start systematic disinvestment.
ICICI… this is one stock which you can hold for eternity…. don’t you think so?
bajaj and hero honda…. i would wait for the price to go down by another 10% or so… plus usually people don’t buy automobiles during the year end (because the resale value is related to purchase year)
btw do invest in Mundra port
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 1, 2007 @ 2:02 pm
btw what do u think about Empree Distilleries
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 1, 2007 @ 2:02 pm
how much did u put in relegare if u dont mind did u full it fr
generally i let the mkt guide my opinion
cause god knows about the managements of such cos
mudra has hardly got any allotment and in this mkt dont know if it that is a great bet same is the situation with empree dont know if it gives substantial listg gains
Comment by prax — November 1, 2007 @ 2:14 pm
i always apply a full application of 1L, but even that does not guarantee an allotment
i wish i had a spouse or a kid under whose proxy name i could invest more.
about mundra…. it has already been oversubscribed by over 3 times in just the first few hours
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 1, 2007 @ 2:34 pm
yes mudra, seems to be quite hot
missed the relegare ipo thanks to the idiotic policy of kotak- who are sitting pretty with my ipo money and dont regret it u should get some allotment but at 130 times dont know what it will be.
next time u update if possible put the last date as it will be useful
u could use ur mums name and loan her funds
mums are great proxys
Comment by Prax — November 1, 2007 @ 4:20 pm
after my loud complaint they seem to have debited funds now lets see if i have managed to apply for religare
ur maxing on mundra i suppose
it has a big premium on the kerb satta mkt - as per some post on moneycontrol board
Comment by Prax — November 1, 2007 @ 4:51 pm
my mom has a bigger portfolio than what i have… so unless i am applying on junk issues, i do not think using her proxy would work out…
what did kotak did?
//u should get some allotment but at 130 times dont know what it will be.//
i am a very unlucky fellow… even if an ipo is oversubscribed 17 times (retail) then i get my full 1L refund
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 1, 2007 @ 5:02 pm
wow.. good for u.. hey why don’t u move to some good broker… thats what i did with Sharekhan.
i have heard a lot about kerb satta mkt… how does one uses it?
BTW I think you are right.. the way the market was stable for past 3 days proves that its consolidating for another bull run.
I bought some Omaxe today 300…
What do you think about Asian Granite and Dhanush Technologies.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 1, 2007 @ 5:07 pm
looks nice how did u manage the table
also why does my last post not show up?
Comment by Prax — November 2, 2007 @ 4:31 pm
i created the table using the 2 html tags |tr| |th| (replace the | with > and <) it was time taking, but a new thing.
and which post are you talking about? can you resend it
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 2, 2007 @ 5:25 pm
u already read it so no bigge
Comment by prax — November 2, 2007 @ 10:37 pm
Stephen Roach
Chairman-Asia , Morgan Stanley is more negative on the us economy and maybe come new yr things might turn turtle if the us goes into recession!
next time u buy please explain me the logic that mks int conv
Comment by prax — November 3, 2007 @ 8:41 am
I have been liquidating my stocks since July end because of sub prime lending, but the economy does not only seem to be robust but the prices are going up…. so maybe i was wrong.
all i can say is that it would be foolish to discount the news of Charles Prince (citigroup) and Stan O’Neal (Merrill Lynch) being fired…. last time a similar thing happened, there was a recession.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 3, 2007 @ 6:30 pm
Why don’t you guys buy the blue chip stocks? Even if you want to trade, if you buy on a down trend, you can catch it on the next upswing. I don’t think you can go wrong there, can you?
Thanks for letting me know, Ankur. Appreciate it.
Comment by rambodoc — November 3, 2007 @ 7:34 pm
actually i invest primarily in blue chip… just that in this bull run all my targets were reached and i have sold my blue chip at a handsome profit .. my present holding is the laggards which have not made any money for me in the past 6 months. in a couple of months, if the market falls, i guess i will buy some more
I had huge investments in blu chip companies like RPL, ICICI bank, Tata Steel, Bharat Forge and TCS. I still have stakes in Bharti Airtel, Apollo Hospitals and Bharat petroleum… then the Mutual funds i buy are expected to be investing in blue chips… so i guess i am covered.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 3, 2007 @ 7:42 pm
for ur info
The IPO of Edelweiss Capital Ltd opens on 15th November 07 and closes on 20th November 07.
Price Band is Rs. 725/- to Rs. 825/-.
Bid Lot :- 8 shares and in multiple of 8 shares.
Comment by prax — November 3, 2007 @ 9:37 pm
my present holding is the laggards which have not made any money for me in the past 6 months. in a couple of months, if the market falls, i guess i will buy some more
this can be a disastrous strategy sometimes but overall im expectin u to take informed decisions
did u see dredging co go up 10%
mon might be interestg mush finally declared emergency this might spook some fiis but time will tell
Comment by prax — November 3, 2007 @ 9:40 pm
i have decided against investing in Empree Distilleries…. its price is on the higher side, tax burden is TOOOO high, and distilleries (atleast this one) does not have a secret recipe which will make me pay a premium for the capacity additions….
about edwlweiss capital… what do u think about the pricing? i love its fundamentals, but 90% of the investment decisions are made on the pricing.
dredging…. sorry that was never in my scanner… if i am not wrong its a PSU and is not very ambitious.. infact its recent quarterly results are not that great… whats the reason for the change?
//this can be a disastrous strategy sometimes but overall im expectin u to take informed decisions//
if u look at my present holdings, all of them are either new/expanding enterprises which need time to establish themselves or have been recently purchased… so i am in no hurry.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 3, 2007 @ 9:51 pm
yes 80% govt owned highly illiquid and fiis are tricklin in money i think this could be another neyvelli lignite if someone big pics up some of the stock
iv got like 3 shares from the ipo and they have more than doubled out of the blue
on fiis here are some imp stats
http://www.business-standard.com/common/storypage_c_online.php?leftnm=11&bKeyFlag=IN&autono=29687
Comment by prax — November 3, 2007 @ 9:57 pm
lets see our odds at gettin anythin in that religare ipo Edelweiss i dunno lets see secondlast day figures
are what i bet on !!
some neg news on mundra is also out about some spat and agreement have u already invested?
Comment by prax — November 3, 2007 @ 9:58 pm
don’t count on religare… even after putting 1L there is 1 in 9 times chance of getting it… so even if i get a share, it will be so much overpriced that i do not think it would make sense to keep it as an investment.
about dredging… if u have 3 shares, then probably it won’t harm to keep it for some more time…. but its odd because i do not foresee the management to change and dredging is not doing very good… its just a average company. i will do some more research and let u know.
@mundra… whats the bad news… i am not able to get it in google… anyways maybe it will improve my chances of getting allotment.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 3, 2007 @ 10:53 pm
on dredging i have 3 mum has 9 maybe but i think ill sell using same formula as ongc let it come clost to the nse performance
ur right about it constantly underperforming and being a dud but the potential is still there due to the adverse liquidity situation just like what wipro was when premji had a super huge holding
Comment by Prax — November 4, 2007 @ 12:44 am
the mundra link
http://www.ndtvprofit.com/homepage/storybusinessnew.asp?id=41559&template=
on mundra it is still not fully subs
Retail Individual Investors 12030000 3081435 0.26
Comment by Prax — November 4, 2007 @ 12:46 am
@dredging…
your strategy sounds good…
@wipro….
if u compare its growth graphs with TCS or Infosys, you will realize that tight control of the promoter really retards the company growth…
http://www.businessworldindia.com/aug3004/news07.asp
a newbie in the company takes home about 14k pm… so do u think any deserving employee will pay 75k just to secure employment… the company’s underperformance is because of the stupid policies and low wages which keeps any good employee miles away from the company.
@mundra…
the dispute looks like a minor conflict which won’t effect the long term viability of the project… they will go to the court and sort it out.
anyways its always best to follow the QIB or institutional investors because they tend to do background study before putting their money.
retail investors are like cattle… they rarely study the company and apply when everybody is applying.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 4, 2007 @ 6:52 am
they are the ones that also cook the books in lisaon with the merchant bankers !
i take a bet on seeing all the figures ret fii and institutions and hnis
Comment by Prax — November 4, 2007 @ 4:57 pm
prax…
if u r so scared, lets have a deal… apply a full 1L for the Mundra issue. if it lists below the allotment price, i will buy your entire allotment at alloted price…. else you pay me one fourth of the difference between the 1st day closing price and the allotment price..
sounds fair?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 4, 2007 @ 8:48 pm
sounds fair
who says im scared i was talkg in general the way i see things in bull mkts almost all ipos give u returns ! i was talkg overall
u know i hate to put in the 1l go or the second last multiple or the one under that
yes ur right abt one thing the atleast allotment is guaranteed in this issue unlike the fancier ones
Comment by prax — November 4, 2007 @ 9:43 pm
//sounds fair//
good after you apply, just mail me your application number.
//who says im scared //
i did not mean to challenge you… infact its always good to be a cautious investor. (atleast i claim i am a cautious gambler)
//i was talkg in general the way i see things in bull mkts almost all ipos give u returns ! i was talkg overall//
ya, but as we were discussing in your blog… one bad IPO and you wipe out all your accrued profits.
//u know i hate to put in the 1l go or the second last multiple or the one under that//
its just an offer, you apply whatever you are comfortable with
//yes ur right abt one thing the atleast allotment is guaranteed in this issue unlike the fancier ones//
there r still a couple of days for this issue to close and indians seem to be oblivious to the fact that all banks r in deep trouble. this would result in more scrutiny before approving a loan, tightening of their purses and reduce the investment in the industry. so don’t know.. and there is always a risk involved.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 4, 2007 @ 10:15 pm
dredging is goin great guns is it the setu effect?
Comment by prax — November 6, 2007 @ 3:39 am
looks so.. in a fortnight the stock price has doubled … the stock today is at just the right price … but are you sure it has bagged the Setu project… or has it even been sanctioned?
BTW if you look at today’s price chart, I think the stock is getting manipulated for there are no sellers and the graph is flat.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 6, 2007 @ 10:47 am
dont know abt that but doubt if it has competition
it is a leader in dredging business and damn strong in south
the moneycontrol chat board is abuzz with it
Comment by prax — November 6, 2007 @ 12:35 pm
see this can be a big fi purchase and due to liquidity probs its sure to go up
cant be definite that its manupulation
Comment by prax — November 6, 2007 @ 12:36 pm
maybe its not manipulation… can’t say.. btw did u look how the RPL crashed today.. i had bought it at 65 only a year ago… and today it fell by 50/-
I took a major beating in Dhanush.. looks like there was no buyer
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 6, 2007 @ 4:05 pm
i was wondering why dhanush ?that too when it was trading at a disc that too when infy is so down
Comment by Prax — November 6, 2007 @ 11:21 pm
could not understand you… infy has been taking a serious beating these days… the ADR is trading at <1700/- … i think i will pick 30-40 shares of TCS if it breaches 900 mark
but both the company are totally different… infy is into bodyshopping while dhanush is into fleet tracking services and telecards.
anyways this company is giving me a lot of trouble
i applied for its IPO, then withdrew my application… just to reenter on friday and witness a crash on monday… anyways its a part of life … what do you think is it a value stock?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 6, 2007 @ 11:51 pm
whatever said and done valuations depend upon key dominant stocks infosys is one and it is quite down
from its 2100 price
dont have time to chk out dhanush
if dhanush is into fleet tracking services and telecards, then their business is even more non glamorous thus why the logic of investing in it
was it the price or the below ipo price valuation?
al said and done sell and keep away from dhanush…
keep me updated on infy i have a bigger holdg
Comment by prax — November 7, 2007 @ 7:25 am
i think infosys should take another 10% correction… if you are a trader then sell now and reenter after a week or 2…. if you are a investor then sleep for atleast 2 quarters and then reevaluate your position.
dhanush.. i had invested at 260/- (and the stock may quote below 200 today
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 7, 2007 @ 8:43 am
ANKUR happy divali and have a grean new yr!!
Comment by Prax — November 8, 2007 @ 9:38 am
thanks and same to you…
so have you picked your diwali stock yet?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 8, 2007 @ 9:59 am
no i never have really done that
more pressing things fr me to attend to
Comment by prax — November 8, 2007 @ 10:32 am
@prax…
you can get ur info about block deals on dredging in http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/blockdeals/index.php
BTW look at Infy ADR prices today…. the first phase of correction is finally finished
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 8, 2007 @ 9:21 pm
thanks for ur tips
as per my source odds for religare are
No of Shares | No. of Shares | Ratio |
| Applied | Allotted | |
525 | 35 | 19:95 for ur case
ie same as for me while i applied for 420 shares
Comment by prax — November 14, 2007 @ 11:39 am
auto may be contrarian ill follow them but tell me what abt the hot stocks ie power sector ?
Comment by prax — November 14, 2007 @ 11:40 am
lets c how the lottery turns up… any idea when the shares are going to be alloted and listed?
you were inquiring about auto stocks a few weeks back and I had asked you to wait because i felt that high interest rates would seriously hamper the auto companies to increase their sales. hence the comment.
about power stocks… with the power exchange coming up, efficient companies like NTPC would be able to negotiate a much better price for their power… so before investing just peek into the agreement with the STATE electricity board about what price is the power being purchased currently
BTW i had bought 1000 saamya biotech at 11.8 a week ago and today it is quoting above 20
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 14, 2007 @ 2:21 pm
only u had slightly better odds in the lottery
mine were 7.5 and urs were 6 lets see if i get any info ull be the first to know
hey dont bother justifying - i like to share opinions and the auto stocks were beaten thus my question which one do u pick in auto bajaj maruti or hero honda
samya - is it a satta stock ? next time tell me faster with logic of purchase please
Comment by Prax — November 14, 2007 @ 2:50 pm
i would go for tata motors… infact i had bought 20 of them at 640 in aug… but had sold them early because of fear of recession.
the very announcement of 1L car launch will propel the stock to above 1k. then not to mention that tata motors recent acquisitions at Daewoo korea and then Jaguar will give give it the know how and respect to become an international brand….
with GM and ford declaring bankruptcies, i want to invest in the car company which does not think about 10-20% growth by exponential growth…. after all, all said and done this is a very risky sector and because of competition i do not think anybody would be making a lot of money.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 14, 2007 @ 3:48 pm
actually what i am doing is pure satta…..
i bought 500 shares in ipo at 10, sold it on listing date at 21. then again bought 1000 shares at 11.8, and partly booked profits at 20. and i intend to repurchase again when the market goes down.. because i believe the stock should be valued at 40+ in a years time.
basically its a tiny biotech startup which has not started its operations… but has a bright future, provided the management does not cheats you (which is also very likely)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 14, 2007 @ 3:53 pm
Ankur,
You are talking about Saamya Biotech?
What would you say would be good for trading tomorrow, with the Sensex nearly a thousand points plus?
I bought Power Grid stocks today at 155. It seemed to be the only decent stock that was not green! How much do you expect it to go to?
Comment by rambodoc — November 14, 2007 @ 8:05 pm
@ram…
sorry i do not indulge in trading, so i might not be able to help you in this regard… however, if you want some long term investment advice, then i would be more than glad to help you.
@prax…
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119498388283591703.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 14, 2007 @ 9:09 pm
doc icici bank is a good speculative script
try looking at its one month chart
good fluctuations and good trading bet
Comment by Prax — November 15, 2007 @ 2:23 am
i agree… i bought 28 icici pps stocks at 680 on monday and yesterday evening it was quoting at 860/-…. i think today i should sell some.
similarly in august end i bought icici pps at 390 and they went as high as 920 (although i could not capture the peak)
@prax…
your gold ETF fund might me on the verge of a downside
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aH6RXcBnTUTM&refer=india
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 15, 2007 @ 8:30 am
expected that so i didnt invest
Comment by Prax — November 15, 2007 @ 11:55 am
hi again
no luck with religare
try urs http://203.199.177.158/ipo/
i think it would make sense to wait and slip big glam ipos instead of blocking funds
what r ur plans on edelweiss ipo
Comment by Prax — November 16, 2007 @ 1:20 am
typo- wait and skip
Comment by Prax — November 16, 2007 @ 1:25 am
same here… no allotment in spite of the fact that i invested 3L in the issue
yesterday my portfolio went up…..
i sold alok (will re-enter), su-raj went up by 10/- and so did taj and omaxe.
so made a sale of 70k yesterday and i think edlweiss would be a good place to park the funds. after all its a portfolio stock.
there are also a bunch of 3 other ipos opening tomorrow… any idea if any one of them is worth it
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 16, 2007 @ 8:20 am
ankur i was just looking at the buy sell pattern of infosys and though most funds were selling it some good funds like reliance vision, sbi contra hdfc eq fund etc are positive on it
so is it a long term contrarian buy now or what do u think it will fall to?
Comment by prax — November 17, 2007 @ 10:53 pm
on ipo kolte patil is not a bad bet
cause it may atleast give an allotment
is it stupid to block funds in edelweiss as it seems to be goin the religare way??
what about Renaissance ? what do u think abt valuations
i found another parameter to evaluate ipos
promoters holdings if they are in a hurry to cash in on the boom the holdings crash to 51% from 100
http://www.myiris.com/shares/ipo/ipoMain.php
Comment by prax — November 17, 2007 @ 10:58 pm
why ft taxsaver ?
i prefer hdfc lt adv or sbi tax
Comment by prax — November 17, 2007 @ 11:05 pm
as i had told u before, I would enter into TCS the moment it falls below 900 and infy when it falls below 1600 (it almost touched the level a couple of days ago)… but then i do not invest in a stock unless i am sure its available at a throw-away price. and technology is not a sector that i am very keen to add to my portfolio (because i earn my bread and butter from it… and i do not want to be jobless and penniless at the same time)
so all i can say is do not buy all in one go and be prepared to wait for 6-10 months before you can see this investment maturing.
BTW keep me in the loop if you spot a good stock to invest in.
about ft tax saver….
i do not know even a slightest thing about mutual funds…. my god there r more mutual funds than there are stocks listed in BSE…. each fund house has 30-40 funds and all look alike to me….
in Aug I asked my father to compile a list of 6 tax saver funds… and then i chose this by rolling the dice… (in less than a month’s time, i am up 5%… so i guess its better than NSC/PPF where I usually parked my funds.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 17, 2007 @ 11:24 pm
yes it is a jungle of mfs out there - but try value research india for a better insight they are more unbiased
Comment by Prax — November 18, 2007 @ 12:02 am
did my ipo post go into spam?
nyways id say kolte patil is kinda good as atleast u would get allotment
what do u think about allotment chances in edelweiss
is it worth blocking funds as it is a pure number and lottery game
dont know about the jewellery ipo
but found another evaluator of ipos pre and post ipo promoter stakes from myiris that also shows how keen the promoter is in holding on to his stock or if he wants to benifit from the mkt boom
Comment by Prax — November 18, 2007 @ 12:06 am
technology is not a sector that i am very keen to add to my portfolio (because i earn my bread and butter from it… and i do not want to be jobless and penniless at the same time)
does it mean that ur kinda negative in the longer term on the whole tech sector??
Comment by Prax — November 18, 2007 @ 12:07 am
//did my ipo post go into spam?//
thanks for pointing it out.. recovered it.
i will try value research india after march.. when i plan to buy the second batch of tax saving funds.
edelweiss pricing is slightly on the higher side, but i will subscribe to it.. its a good portfolio stock.
jewelery and realty are not the sort after sectors at this moment…. so i will follow ur advise .. keep an eye on public response before you invest.
but renaissance looks like a good low margin high volume manufacturer… and its clients like walmart seem to be very happy with their performance.
patil developers are kind of outsiders in bangalore…. no track record or brand name.. but i have no clue how they fare in the home turf (Pune)… overall i am not keenly looking forward to their issue for they seem to be just another realty company which is trying to capitalize on high real estate prices.
basically when i invest, i do not look at the allotment figures (no allotment is a minuscule 500/- loss of 15 days interest)…. what i want is the surety that it is not going to list below the issue price.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 18, 2007 @ 1:00 am
//does it mean that ur kinda negative in the longer term on the whole tech sector??//
i have a few lakhs of rupees tied up in my company’s shares… so i am not negative about the sector…. but then broadcom’s business model is totally different from Infy’s model..
what i am saying is that my beta risk increases by investing in Infy… after all the company’s financial directly effects the bangalore’s job market.. and hence my main source of bread and butter.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 18, 2007 @ 1:07 am
aah ok no wonder
on kpatil they are a premium tier 2 co in pune
the main developers are dsk and kumar
http://www.puneproperties.com/property-builder-5.php
Comment by Prax — November 18, 2007 @ 10:16 am
wow ur brave enough to put up ur
transaction history (password protected)
how do i get access to it ?
Comment by Prax — November 18, 2007 @ 10:17 am
//wow ur brave enough to put up ur//
i have even put my entire portfolio up there on this page.. without any password.. anyways i do not think anybody but my IT inspector would have any interest in the document….
//on kpatil they are a premium tier 2 co in pune//
in that case, I will see the market response before investing. thanks
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 18, 2007 @ 5:11 pm
yes he would but id also be interested
so how the heck do i access it and post my wise ass comments on ur pf?
Comment by Prax — November 19, 2007 @ 1:44 am
hey leave it man.. its a very personal document.
all i can say is that i have almost doubled my investments every year consistently for the past 3 years .. and for the past 1 month i am into some serious cashflow problems… because of which i had to sell most of my blue chip stocks.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 19, 2007 @ 8:38 am
u should not be posting stuff u dont intend to share
nyways i wont ask u abt it again
so have u nything new n interesting
didnt have time to catch up
Comment by Prax — November 19, 2007 @ 4:29 pm
//u should not be posting stuff u dont intend to share//
the document is shared with my family members and with a couple of friends whose money i manage. so i hope u understand… anyways EoD, i always update this page with my portfolio and how much of unrealized profit/loss i have made.
//so have u nything new n interesting//
just to discover that today its quoting at 135.
man.. its official.. i have lost my mind…. last week i did some considerable damage to my portfolio….
i was holding tamil nadu newsprint for almost 6 months with the hope that someday people will realize that its a gold mind.. the stock was flat for months.. and last week i sold it for 107
Same story with Alok… i sold over 500shares on friday and today it jumped up by 10/-
but apart from that i am one happy man
when the people were fearing that market is overheated, i sold all my blue chips and bought tons of good mid caps… and looks like they are shining stars of the moment 
so i guess that was one wise decision.
how is ur portfolio faring?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 19, 2007 @ 4:43 pm
stagnent
im still not as brave as u to be so active
i was once and had a rude shock sometime during the tech boom, yes u give me more confidence and maybe one of these days once i get my accounts sorted out ill get back
u put a lot of effort in the blog
wonder where u have the time and energy
on ur pf
i was not interested in the contents or profits but ur aggressive style of investing which i kinda admire and which can be understood if one sees ur pf history but as this discussion is history no more talk
on tnpl
same thing happened to me with hcc
the damn script hit 97 and retreated 4 times that was when the sensex was at 6000
i sold it at 102 now it is well above 1000 and god knows how high
no regrets though as u said
i still made a 50% profit on that one
Comment by Prax — November 19, 2007 @ 5:00 pm
//im still not as brave as u to be so active//
i do not do active trading… its just part of the learning process.. plus it gives me great pride in being able to predict a trend successfully.
but basically it boils down to .. if it is a good company with strong fundamentals, then sooner or later it will generate some fantastic returns for u.
//u put a lot of effort in the blog
wonder where u have the time and energy//
just part of the hobby… plus it gives me a reason to read different articles, trying to understand other’s viewpoints… and interacting/debating with others really opens my mind.
//no regrets though as u said//
in stock market you always lose… you can never time the market properly.. so as to buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest…. but then still one has to be content with the decisions one make.
//hcc//
do you mean Hindustan construction corporation?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 19, 2007 @ 5:44 pm
I took my first beating today.
I had predicted that Essaroil will fall today. I was stunned to learn it had gone to 250.
My broker advised me to pick it up (again) at 213. I thought I would do day trading and sell it off as soon as it went up. However, at the end of the day, I had to book a loss of 5K (had bought 500 shares). so much for being wise and foolish at the same time!
What do you feel one should keep as a sell price for Ispat, MRPL and Powergrid?
Comment by rambodoc — November 19, 2007 @ 6:14 pm
Oh, and one more thing: I have Jindal Steel taken at 10.6 K. With the impending stock split, should I hold on, or sell while it is going at 500 bucks plus?
Comment by rambodoc — November 19, 2007 @ 6:31 pm
@ram…
//I took my first beating today.//
its just 10/- per share.. right that ok… prax and i have seen our portfolio melting down.. one 2 occasions i have lost over 1L on a single day… but the idea is to take small steps and learn as much as possible from the experience.
//My broker advised me //
from my observations about the trades you just mentioned:
1) I can say is that the surest way to loose money is by trusting the brokers. stock trading is a zero sum game where the biggest fool can even lose their shirts.
brokers encourage people to buy and sell in huge volumes so that they get huge commissions. their idea is not to make money for you, but to make to do large transactions… usually the only person who makes money via trading is the broker.
2) 500 shares @200.. is like investing 1L in a single stock in a single day. scale down sir.. start with purchases in lots of 5k.. even I rarely purchase share in lots of greater than 30k .. and i manage a portfolio of almost 20L…
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 19, 2007 @ 6:45 pm
//Jindal Steel taken at 10.6 K.//
1) split…. have they announced the split? if not then usually it makes sense to keep the stock till the news is announced…. because the stock generally surges on that news.
but overall the numbers for Jindal Steel and power ltd do not add up. it is currently going for some capacity expansion… but i do not think it justifies such huge valuation….
if you compare with Tata steel… the revenue is 1/4, but the market capitalization is almost 70%… so i won’t keep the stock for long term.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 19, 2007 @ 8:03 pm
precicely hind cons
and doc - ankur has some valuable tips i dont need to repeat - day trading/ jobbing is for those who sit in front of the bolt or neat
keep to weakly trading and choose ur scripts after analysis
Comment by Prax — November 19, 2007 @ 8:51 pm
in stock market you always lose…
generally it is 8/10 that loose
the attempt should be to be among the remaining 2
Comment by Prax — November 19, 2007 @ 8:52 pm
best of luck for edelweiss
u must have maxd out 120 sh via 99000 @825 cutoff
ive done it at 96/112 shares lets see if luck becomes a lady today
Comment by Prax — November 20, 2007 @ 3:55 am
thanks….
man you r right.. ipo blocks a lot of money for quite a lot of time… and often its not worth it.
i got full refund of both religare and empree distillers.
by the way i think renaissance jewelery might be a good issue. esp when you consider that the company is also issuing warrants for the ipo investors. but i am not sure if i will apply to it.. primarily because already i am overexposed to this sector.
i think i will skip kotle patil… a second tier player in a second tier city might be just too small for me.
BTW… infy is at 1600 now.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 20, 2007 @ 7:32 am
so have u invested in edelweiss
lets hope to get allotments
k patil is safer than ren jew nyways
im considering all three as listing gains stocks
as i consider them overvalued
so is it a contrarian buy
yesterday up late- i was watchin the closing bell- i heard a discussion on cnbc with maria b and they were also considering tech as contrarian buy in us
and ram doc by weekly trading i meant dont hurry build a portfolio of trading stocks and sell in 2/4 days that ways u can make better gains in volatile mkts
Comment by Prax — November 20, 2007 @ 1:12 pm
//so have u invested in edelweiss//
yups, i have applied to this stock.. but as u said… i am also not very happy with the price offered…. maybe because of scarcity premium….
//as i consider them overvalued//
ya i totally agree… plus the surest way to lose money in ipo is to apply solely for listing gains. so i will go with you and skip the issues.
//so is it a contrarian buy//
i bought 3 shares today… and lets c if the fall continues i will buy 17 more in lots.
i would not like to brand it contrarian… but what i can say is that i agree their business model model has started showing its weakness… the poor quality of indian colleges have prevented them to scale their operations the way they would have liked, inflated the wages.. killing their margins… and to add to their woes the dollar is consistently weakening.
but then stock market is always ruthless in punishing/re-evaluating the stocks… so the prices have beginning to look attractive.
//and ram doc by weekly trading i meant dont hurry build a portfolio of trading stocks and sell in 2/4 days that ways u can make better gains in volatile mkts//
i totally agree…. infact just use your wits and invest in 4 stocks with the bare minimum 3-5k each.. and track how it goes.
http://enagar.com/2006/11/27/stock-advice/
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 20, 2007 @ 1:58 pm
I have to stop being a sucker.
I bought IFCI today, expecting to trade it off today. 400 @ 104 bucks a pop.
Am stuck with it now. Hope it will do better than MRPL and Ispat, both of which are below my buy levels.
I have decided to follow your advice, but I don’t trust myself. The moment I stand in front of that monitor, my trigger finger starts clicking!
Comment by rambodoc — November 20, 2007 @ 9:57 pm
r doc buy stocks at lows not at tops or breakouts
that is fr day traders , ur new in this game research and take ur time
during my college yrs i would have a practice pf on walletwatch which sify took over later on
nyways what kinda surgeon r u ??
Comment by Prax — November 20, 2007 @ 10:22 pm
Edelweiss has been amazing… looks like retain guys will get 1 lot… while the FII won’t get much.
//nyways what kinda surgeon r u ??//
i guess a trigger happy one
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 20, 2007 @ 10:32 pm
yes edelweiss is 17 times that means lots of chance to win in the lottery
tomorrow religare is opening what say u ?
broadcom -is t even listed in india?
any stock tips ?
on doc
Comment by Prax — November 20, 2007 @ 11:40 pm
//tomorrow religare is opening what say u ?//
its not a time to pick these stocks.
//broadcom -is t even listed in india?//
no way… Broadcom does not even sell to indian firms. i trade in it through Smith Barney.
//any stock tips ?//
but one should not be too greedy … it cost me dearly last week.
1) after almost a year of being flat, the time for midcaps has finally arrived
2) infy looks attractive…. and its adr is taking a beating tonight
3) all the ipos look crap… esp jyoti and Kaushalya Infra… i wonder who would even consider buying them
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 21, 2007 @ 12:09 am
Prax,
“What kind of surgeon are you?”
Arrey, don’t you understand this much about me now? I put on various hats in the vast stage of the comedy show of life. At present I am playing the stock role of clown.
Having played small bit roles in various times in life, I will have something new to write about now, so that you can read it at my blog. You already got a taste of it, didn’t you?
Comment by rambodoc — November 21, 2007 @ 1:18 am
Prax,
I do advanced laparoscopic surgery (he rephrased his question to me in my blog).
BTW, I am getting out of this trading business as of today. Thanks a lot! Nice knowing you guys!
Comment by rambodoc — November 21, 2007 @ 4:00 pm
what happened doc?
profit loss is a part of life… when u know the tricks of the game, its real fun in being able to predict the future
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 21, 2007 @ 5:32 pm
i was chkg the 1yr chart of all hotels
leela is the only outperformer
other than tgvk the other to look out is royal orchid which is on expantion
Comment by Prax — November 22, 2007 @ 2:10 am
i purchased taj when it was neat 137 levels…. what i feel is that currently people do not spend too much on hotels resorts etc.
in the future this would change…. more indians will go on vacations, more business travels etc.
about leela…. almost all of its revenue comes from bangalore and that unit already has 100% occupation year round… so the room for growth is less. but all said and done… hotel is not a glorious sector of the indian economy… what do u say?
btw.. i am thinking of buying about 50 more shares of ICICI if it falls below 1k… what do u think?
i am bugged up.. i got a full 1L refund of varun industries
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 22, 2007 @ 9:05 am
that s why im more choosy on ipos it bcomes a waste blockage f money sometimes
did u put in rennaissance j and kpatil i hvent still after u were neg on kpatil
the hotel industry is kinda boring yes but its a safer bet in falling mkts and i think mkts might fall if the us gets under a spell of the dreaded recession
me also thinkg the same on icici and infy but with 150+ shares i might diversify into other tech shares
ny recos
how abt maruti it is strongest in auto pack
goin great on sx4 etc
Comment by Prax — November 22, 2007 @ 1:42 pm
what price u suggest pickg sbi its big and underowned by fiis
Comment by Prax — November 22, 2007 @ 1:44 pm
//sbi///
or other psu banks should be going for fresh equity offer to comply with the basel norms… and govt has a history of underpricing their public offers… so unless its not an right/warrent route to raise fresh capital.. i would try to pick these stocks from FPOs rather than secondary.
//that s why im more choosy on ipos it bcomes a waste blockage f money sometimes//
i am also choosy… but i was so much obsessed with not losing money that i applied only in safe bets… resulting in huge capital blockages and trivial returns.
i applied for 6 lots of Renaissance and after some good advice from you you and seeing very low subscription levels just placed a 1L bid on kotle patil.
hotel/luxury industry is always the first to take a beating during recession. i will never keep any of the taj stocks during a recession.
//ny recos//
now all i am looking for is exponential growth in revenue and international scales… hence i would be biased towards tata motors in auto… icici in banking and tcs/infy in technology…. (but one has to also make sure you buy GARP stocks and have patience … else these stocks could be the fastest way to penury.
btw i got 15 shares of mundra…
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 22, 2007 @ 1:56 pm
congrats on mundra for whatever its worth
GARP stocks?
Growth at a Reasonable Price
am i right
Comment by Prax — November 22, 2007 @ 2:05 pm
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/video/stockmarket/13/36/newsvideo/314099
Comment by Prax — November 22, 2007 @ 2:05 pm
ya thats what GARP means…
btw usually when the stocks picks up after a very long time, the original investors try to book profits asap…. hence driving back the prices to the same level. (but at a much larger volume) i think this is what happened…. but i also believe that if one holds a fundamentally strong stocks… then sooner or later there will be a second wave that will again push the prices up.
the reason for me being optimistic might be because i want this to happen
… but lets c how the future turns up….
BTW what do u think about Dr Reddy Labs?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 22, 2007 @ 7:01 pm
why the int in reddys ? its one yr chart shows it constantly underperforming or making a cross wt the sensex - is it a contrarian pic
im gettin interested in second rung psu banks
basil norms r knocking in 08 and most of them will be absorbed by stronger bigger psu banks stuff like dena etc once pc starts with his dictats
also sbi at falls seems good
Comment by Prax — November 23, 2007 @ 2:15 am
all said and done, the market capitalization of reddys when compared with its revenue is too low.. and there is scope for about 30-40% appreciation… also since we r living in a world of pill poppers… so it might not be a bad idea to invest in it… what do u say?
second rung PSU… as a rule of thumb.. i do not invest in a company with which i do not intend to do business with…. the mediocre rarely make a fundamentally sound case for investment… so i will give it a pass.
SBI… its a wonderful stock… i made tons of money in it about 3 years ago when nobody wanted to invest in banks and all of them were trading at PE of 4-5. but today i will wait for sub-prime lending to make investments in bank unglamorous… and them i will start picking those stocks. ICICI adrs again took a major beating today… so ICICI would be my first target.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 23, 2007 @ 2:26 am
there are many good stocks down in dumps
but the fact is that the mgmts should show some results or foresight to get rerated
yes long term it could either go up or down
icici is an alseason pic it never fails to bounce around below 1000 its a buy to me too
Comment by Prax — November 23, 2007 @ 2:36 am
kotle patil because of some controversy about whispering meadows.. has given investors a chance to withdraw their application. whats ur strategy?
my exp… in dhanush i benefited tremendously because i bought shares from retail instead of primary. but i do not understand kotle patil well enough… the only reason i was applying to it was because of hope of some listing gains.
//there are many good stocks down in dumps//
thats exactly what i am looking for…. stock investing is all about buying a dollar bill at 60 cents.
//but the fact is that the mgmts should show some results or foresight to get rerated//
a company with bad management can never yield returns… and hence it can never be a good stock.. isn’t it?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 25, 2007 @ 8:53 am
i put in very small lots just 2 for me and 3 for mum
so dont know at 16 times if it would be possible for me to get allotment
mostly it depends on the mkts
if there is more substantial damage then it might open at below ipo price
mostly i expect it to open strong because prop stocks r still hot - whatever their worth
Comment by Prax — November 25, 2007 @ 2:50 pm
Empee Distilleries, (Q, N,C,F)* a manufacturer of Indian made foreign liquor, after listing on bourses today, settled at 20.52% discount on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
the tide is shifting as u clearly estimated the band was rather overvalued
but the fact that it fell first day gives negative signals in ipo mkts
Comment by prax — November 27, 2007 @ 1:32 am
it a wonderful sign..
a sane stock market is where the price band is determined not by speculators but by investors…….
with the hope that it should reach 500 some time soon
it shows that indian IPO market is full of speculators …. who have no idea what the stock is worth and blindly invest relying on the subscription level….. then on the listing they they make quick bucks…. that is why empree got over subscribed, yet it went as low as 25% below allotment price.
BTW i bought a couple of them at 315
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — November 27, 2007 @ 7:32 am
i don,t know nothing about buying shares so a long way to go but I know how to make a good chai and drink it at some rooftop restaurant overlooking the lake or mountains. but all this needs money ha ha. hope i will continue to have it otherwise i better learn how to do this stocks. ha god save me.
Comment by haldiram damru — November 29, 2007 @ 12:39 am
i got the offer letter from kp did u?
also have u planned to hold the investment or act on it to withdraw ur bid ?
wat else pls update me as i have been a tad bit busy
Comment by Prax — December 1, 2007 @ 12:54 pm
i think i will not withdraw. but this news has considerably increased the risks.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 1, 2007 @ 1:29 pm
if the mkts r bellweather then surely kp should hold above water
Comment by prax — December 1, 2007 @ 5:02 pm
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Investors_say_yes_to_money_mkt_instruments/articleshow/2590435.cms
kinda interesting read it.
Comment by Prax — December 3, 2007 @ 3:34 pm
that indeed was a interesting article.
amongst the current IPOs, the Brigade group and eClerx are good companies (need to do some research on the pricing) while i am skipping BGR energy, although the company has a bright future, the pricing looks tooo steep. what do you think?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 4, 2007 @ 6:40 pm
hey ankur
sorry had been dead busy and far away from mkts
how much did u put in edelweiss
i god 8 shares too
what are u doin about eClerx
prabhudas is givig a buy with a long term view on mc but hey tha means Listing gains for me due to EBIDTA margin of 50.2%but it wont be that attractive due to their exposure to dollar
on bgr yes ts a tad bit high but power is now a la mode and therefore if al things remain constant
i expect it to list big
Comment by Prax — December 7, 2007 @ 1:29 pm
bgr is bloody expensive double the bigwigs like abb doubt it will list substantially above but it all depends which way the mkts move
Comment by prax — December 8, 2007 @ 12:36 am
about edelweiss… i applied 2L and got 8 shares (so you were luckier)..
i expect to list it at atleast 50% premium (if it lists at less than 20% premium i buying about 10 more from the secondary….
however if like mundra/religare it appreciates to ridiculously high values .. then i am better of encashing on the temporary fit on market insanity….
who is prabudhas?????
i was sure about not applying to BGR because of the same reasons… but then being oversubscribed 5 times on the first day is no small feat.
eclarks is a tiny company… 100cr revenue (and less than 50cr a year before) hardly makes its a good buy… unless ofcourse you know and trust the promoters…. so your strategy should be a short term one (not for forte) but i did apply for 12k… a tiny amount with the intention of selling it off on the first day.
brigade group should be a good issue.. keep an eye on it
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 8, 2007 @ 11:50 am
ok thanks for the info
nythin worth mentioning?
Comment by Prax — December 8, 2007 @ 5:05 pm
i was luckier than u on inv of 170+ i got 18 shares
try my formula sometimes
Comment by Prax — December 8, 2007 @ 5:26 pm
i will
esp in bgr energy… i do not want to invest a full 1L there.. but i won’t want to miss the listing gains
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 9, 2007 @ 10:12 am
what abt the transformers issue?
Comment by prax — December 9, 2007 @ 10:38 pm
like eclarks… its a tiny company and IPO is at a fair price… so unless you trust the promoter and believe that he is going to share the wealth that the company’s new plant will make with u… don’t apply
but then do remember i am a risk averse gambler.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 9, 2007 @ 10:59 pm
What’s your take on WWIL and Essar Steel? I have bought both at highs: 99 bucks and 74 bucks respectively. Unwise buys?
Comment by rambodoc — December 10, 2007 @ 3:11 am
I have not much idea about Wire & Wireless ( India ) Ltd. but i think it is a small cap company which is yet to make even a single penny in profits… so like air deccan if u would wait for the company to make profit, then potentially u stand to gain a lot.
essar group….
even if u get the stock at 1/-, its too expensive.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 10, 2007 @ 8:24 am
doc these are hot stocks purely SATTA PATAKAS
u make money if they get rerated else join the remaining 8 if they loose
plus essar is not a stock to hold the mgmt is incompetent- cheats and frauds solely surviving due to political support
the doc is a born trader high risk - high return!
he is finding an outlet in the market - i think …
nyways in his profession and with his integrity he cant gamble with lives
thankfully as nita says — he can afford it
best of luck ! doc (hope u dont mind)
Comment by Prax — December 10, 2007 @ 12:18 pm
im thinkg of sellin icici at 1300 + (lock in lt tax free gains)wat say u ?
basic reason is i am sure to get it cheaper at between 1050 and 1150 rates when mkts fall wat say u
what do u think abt sbi it seems a decent lo risk lo retrn tradin pic too
also i find the transformers ipo better price wise and allotment chance wise
and am takin all the ipos as listing gains pics now
dock wwil seems a hot in the fancy kinda stock to me look at its 3 mths chart it is mostly operator driven
and expect it to come down a bit that is if there is no news on that counter
Comment by Prax — December 10, 2007 @ 12:39 pm
//the doc is a born trader high risk - high return!//
actually most of the people in indian stock market are traders… and the temptations are also high.. after all not everybody has the patience to wait for 6 months or year before they can see any significant movement…
and this mentality is clearly reflected in the stock market analysis. if you visit 4 websites for analysis on IPO… all 4 of them will report 4 different PE ratio… some take into account the equity dilution.. some do not
some take into account the forward PE, some the last declared EPS, some the profits earned in the last 4 quarters
anyways i am sure things will improve.. they already have since market is no longer purely speculative.
//the doc is a born trader high risk - high return!//
and i am sure it will work wonderfully for him.
//im thinkg of sellin icici at 1300 + (lock in lt tax free gains)wat say u ?//
i thought u had already done it… i am with u on periodic booking of profits.. but since i am also perennially bullish on this stock… it might not be a bad idea to hold some of the stocks.
//basic reason is i am sure to get it cheaper at between 1050 and 1150 rates when mkts fall wat say u//
in blue chips, trading rarely works in our favor .. primarily because their revenues and profits are increasing so fast that unless we buy back the share soon enough we might never get a chance… this is what happened to me with L&T, ICICI bank, Morgan stanley (and RIL in my mother’s portfolio) i sold the stock thinking its too overheated, but could never restore the original holding again.. or even had to buy back at a higher price.
//sbi//
now that the govt has approved of 4.5Billion dollars plan to raise equity, SBI will have a war chest to face the international banks (or ones where majority shares are held with FII) head on… so the future is bright for the bank.. but the bad news is that this stock is always in the center of attention and hence trades at a fair price.
//transformer//
well in that case the best indicator is to look at the market response and apply accordingly.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 10, 2007 @ 2:53 pm
Guys,
Actually I am getting my hands warm in this game. Initial explorations only. I just hope I don’t lose all the money (though the amount is small) I invest now. After learning from my interactions in the market, I plan to sink in funds in a fairly big way after a couple of years, Those will be out of reach once purchased. I will check the prices after one year only.
Heard Gillette is a good bye for the long term. Same for MLL.
Comment by rambodoc — December 10, 2007 @ 3:40 pm
I meant Gillette is a good buy. Not goodbye!
Comment by rambodoc — December 10, 2007 @ 3:41 pm
i ve sold mine long time ago i did sell some of my mums at 1100 bt still hold the last 25 of hers
plus it goes close to 1350 max then fall s to 1100 so why not trade and bk profits?
//basic reason
well why regret u still made gains
mkts have to fall someday then u can comfortably recover holdings
doc i think ur approach is wrong
try dividing yr portfolio n thought processes
1. satta or trading SHORT TERM PICTURE
2. long term hold pf BIGGER PICTURE
u have to think differently in both but the way ur goin ur focusing on the shorter picture or 1
ur intent should be to focus on 2 if u want to sink in funds
HOPE IM RIGHT WAT SAY u ANKUR?
Comment by Prax — December 10, 2007 @ 5:08 pm
I will check the prices after one year only.
thats kinda stupid u should review at least quarterly bt be clear about why u picked the stock and what u expect of it in the longer term
Comment by Prax — December 10, 2007 @ 5:10 pm
I meant I will invest in a big way (in my scale) in a couple of months, not years. Now, does it make sense, Prax?
Comment by rambodoc — December 10, 2007 @ 5:48 pm
@ram..
I have no idea what mll is.
but for long term, i would prefer ITC over any fmcg stock anyday… ITC is at a significant discount from its peers and is one of the most aggressive blue chip company in this field….
about size of portfolio…
i would say for the first 1year or so the investment objective should be to build up a diverse portfolio of a tiny size (lower risk)… and once you have doubled ur initial investment (which should not take more than 12-18 months … even in a flat market) increase it to whatever size you want.
its like any other exercise… without adequate warm up u will only end up with cramps.
try different strategies.. different trends, invest in volatile as well as stable stocks.. just to make sure that u have a holistic knowledge about the stock market.
i have not much idea about satta.. but do try ur hand in options and derivatives… it is one of the cheepest way to double ur investment… although option trading did not went very well for me.. i did make a small fortune in derivatives during the turbulent months of aug -oct.
@prax…
yes i totally agree with ur advise about ram’s portfolio..
//icici//
what i was saying is that u sold some shares at 1100, but i doubt if in the near future u might ever get a chance to repurchase it <1k levels….
and that is what happened to a lot of shares of my portfolio.. esp the ones which i had bought at ridiculously low prices… but then a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush… so one should also book profits.
//portfolio reorganization//
the problem was that in the past 6 months my portfolio delivered almost a 100% returns.. and i was involved in frenzy buy and sells.. so over time i accumulated a lot of midcaps and small caps… hence i revist my stocks every 6 months to see if they have as good a potential as I thought they would have.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 10, 2007 @ 6:45 pm
Ankur,
MLL is Mercator Lines Limited.
Thanks.
Comment by rambodoc — December 10, 2007 @ 7:32 pm
yes ram it does make a lot of sense
hope u dont mind my tone and language though!
derivatives are risky too
the potential for gains is high so is the risk
u must monitor them continuously
Comment by prax — December 10, 2007 @ 11:31 pm
“hope u dont mind my tone and language though!”
Prax,
Nahin, baba!
I believe that “if you swim with the sharks, make sure you don’t bleed!”
Comment by rambodoc — December 11, 2007 @ 8:29 am
@ram
i had purchased about 10k worth of Mercator when the stock was about 80… now at twice the price i would go for other shipping companies which are still trading at PE of 7 .. like GE Shipping or SCI…
plus sometimes do look beyond PE…. profits are easier to fudge, but building up revenue is tougher….
so usually for midcaps and smallcaps i use the revenue per share figures.
also find out what is the average fleet age of the shipping company u r investing in.
these r some details which an investor absolutely needs and a trader does not even care about
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 11, 2007 @ 8:32 am
hey ankur wats up
first edelweiss listing tomorrow 50% expected premium
second what is ur gut feel about the mkts is it a case of bottoms up or is it the last mile up before the fall ,,, im gettin kinda queasy
try chking the seekingalpha link in my blogroll
found rather nice posts there
Comment by prax — December 12, 2007 @ 1:09 am
be patient… edelweiss is a portfolio stock… don’t sell all of it too soon.
about the market… i am bullish about it in the long term… and am very optimistic that market won’t fall below the 18-19k mark in the near future.
i also took ur advise and invested in transformer IPO… for listing gains… lets c how it turns up… btw reader has located a very interesting stock… what do u think about Karuturi Networks?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 12, 2007 @ 1:20 am
yes i read about it in ur discussions -roses
didnt intend to sell it just told u what its expected to list
looks like markets crash today damn just a bit of miscalculation!
Comment by prax — December 12, 2007 @ 4:26 am
i havent still applied to any ipos
how much have u put in brigade and transformers?
today being last day will do
sadly got refund on kpatil ipo
very small 2/3 lots was what id applied for
Comment by prax — December 12, 2007 @ 4:35 am
brigade as a pathetic response id avoid it
Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 4957416 572512 0.1155
bgr is the hot stock here but hardly any employees applied
Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 5181600 98265608 18.9643
Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 2590800 15065722 5.8151
Employee Reservation 500000 3626 0.0073
Transformers looks to be an issue where u shd get an allotment be what may
Comment by prax — December 12, 2007 @ 4:42 am
i had anticipated edelweiss to list in 1600-1700 range… but i guess 1550/- listing was close enough…
however i intend to sell 4 shares at 1800+ range and recover my investments and hold the rest for the future. what do u say?
about renaissance… i had expected a tiny listing gain (where one should book profits ASAP).. but the major gain to come from the warrants which the company was planning to issue to all its subscribers.
I have invested full 1L in brigade and transformer… 50k in BGR (high risk)…
the response to brigade might be poor.. but thats good right?… have faith… the returns might not be substantial.. but in the long run u will see that the brigade management is good enough
PS:
1) Why do u think the market should have crashed today? i am not following it very closely these days.. but still i see no reason for the anticipated correction.
2) I sold off dhanush today (210 purchase .. 43% returns in 1 month
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 12, 2007 @ 11:49 am
th us mkts did ours does a bit of copycating
Comment by prax — December 12, 2007 @ 1:25 pm
thats strange…
typically when the treasury rates go down.. more money flows into the stock market pushing up the prices… but yesterday the reverse happened….
i guess its because people had already anticipated interest rate cuts and recession is going to be much worse than what people had anticipated.
anyways… luckily unlike China export and imports (non -oil) form a very small part of the country’s GDP… so the country might actually continue to boom.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 12, 2007 @ 3:36 pm
What is the implication of the Essar Steel delisting on the 14th I just heard of? I am holding 1000 shares @74 bucks.
I am cursing myself now.
What should I do? Take my losses tomorrow at opening bell and run? Or wait for re-listing, etc??
Comment by rambodoc — December 12, 2007 @ 3:38 pm
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/business/essar-steel-to-buy-back-shares-at-rs-48/15/35/317018
re-listing of an essar company????? u must be kidding… even by law that cannot happen for a year or two… and who knows what will happen to this company by then.
most honest companies fix the delisting price at a slight premium of the prevailing stock price…. but somehow i am surprised that essar fixed it at a 40% discount….
my advice dump the stocks even if u get only 48/-
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — December 12, 2007 @ 3:52 pm
yes people expected a half point fed rate ct and 3/4 point lending rate cut , and were disappointed
doc i think ankurs advise is sane
try to tone down ur xpectations n greed from the mkts and be more choosy in future
plus learn from this mistake - quality managements are also vital barometer in picking up company shares
one more thing cant people goto sebi and complain about essar? and is there not some sebi formula for deli sting
i remember somethin like this happened in another stock
i had seen something about the mc board abt brigade mgmt giving itself shares at 60 before the issue
i put a tiny amt in brigade u shd get full allotment there nyways
transformers bgr 10+ demand
Comment by prax — December 12, 2007 @ 5:57 pm
ok i read up on essar stl
u can sell it at 48 in the next 6 mths
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/business/sat-vacates-stay-orderessar-steel-delisting/18/00/316982
that is if it dont goto supreme court from sat
72 man??? what were u thinking ?????
typo i had seen something on the mc board
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