This page is an open forum to discuss about the short term and long term market strategies, which stock to buy which not to buy. I hope both the readers and I have monetary gains and share their tips/hunch here 
The previous comments are archived and I have also started an experimental page about Trading Calls.
As on 7th Mar 2008, I have an unrealized loss of 174,800/- (Oldest stock being purchased on 22nd Jan 0 
My current portfolio consists of:
| no. | Stock | no of shares | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Reliance Industries | 75 | evergreen stock |
| 2. | TISCO | 120 | Corus group profits should cause rerating of the stock |
| 3. | Mundra Port | 100 | Pvt sector Ports should do well esp since Govt ones has too much delays |
| 4. | ICICI Bank | 200 | long term buy |
| 5. | Rural electrification | 121 | should list by 13th March |
| 6. | ICICI 10% bonds | 10 | 10 year FD |
| 7. | Kesoram Industries | 150 | PE of 5 |
| 8. | OPT-NIFTY-24-Jun-2010-5000-CE | 50 | Long term Call (would turn profitable if NIFTY crosses 6020) |
| 9. | Su-Raj Diamonds | 1000 | waiting it to reach 100 mark |
| 10. | Indian Glycol | 200 | rising petrol prices should improve petrochemical producers margins. |
| 11. | Morgan Stanley Growth Fund | 2875 | 5% discount from NAV |
| 12. | Saamaya Biotech | 4000 | Like their model of contracting + waiting for the plant to be operational and hence unlock its true value |
| 13. | Franklin Templeton Tax Saver Fund | 4662 | Income Tax |
| 14. | Broadcom | 197 | Most aggressive technology company in the world |
| 15. | |||
| 16. | |||
| 17. | |||
| 18. | |||
| 19. | |||
| 20. |
IPOs i have recently applied to/will apply
1) Rural Electrification Corporation (19th Feb)
2) Mahindra Resorts
3) Oil India
4) UTI MF
5) MCX
Watch List:
1) ITC
2) BHEL (surprisingly the stock is just going down)
3) Alok Industries
4) KESORAM INDUSTRIES LTD
Websites:
1) My transaction history (password protected)
2) Bloomberg India
3) ICICIDirect
4) Rediff Money
5) NSE IPO Status
6) Seeking Alpha
7) SPTulsian
8 ) LiveMint
PS: I am not a professional analyst nor I have had any formal training in Finance. Stock Market is just a Hobby which pays for all my other hobbies.
next time better archive at 250
future group is very agressive and driven by consumer boom thats here to stay
there are future threats fr the group from regressive govts or aggressive plyrs like walmart etc
Comment by prax — January 10, 2008 @ 1:50 pm
but the question is that how much should i bank on future income. Retail is not a very profitable sector. the margins r low, rentals r high, and competition is fierce….
till now future group did not face any significant competition, but now with almost everybody foraying into retail… i feel many players will burn their fingers….
however I share your vision that future group should be amongst the few players who would survive… but there is no surety.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 10, 2008 @ 2:05 pm
well most ipos get premiums these days
when the tide changes stocks will fall like 9 pins
this is india and i have experienced the tech ipo boom
Comment by prax — January 10, 2008 @ 4:12 pm
i agree…
the price is highest on the listing day. and within a week, for most IPOs it goes below the issue price. I should say, IPOs today have more risk than secondary market.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 10, 2008 @ 4:41 pm
wats ur reliance and future ipo strategy ???
how will u subscribe ???
Comment by Prax — January 12, 2008 @ 2:03 pm
I wrote a post on Reliance power….
I think i will apply to it and sell off on the first day…
about future group…..
the company is awfully silent about the revenue streams and the present track record.. how its subsidaries r doing etc….
yet it wants us to pay top dollar for them…
so i won’t call it a portfolio stock… maybe if its over subscribed i will apply for listing gains
Comment by ankur — January 12, 2008 @ 2:14 pm
im gettin a bit wary on the ipo game now
need a lot more focus as promoters r a real greedy lot these days
keep me updated
Comment by prax — January 12, 2008 @ 3:46 pm
//im gettin a bit wary on the ipo game now
need a lot more focus as promoters r a real greedy lot these days//
i perfectly agree with u… a lot of ipos in the recent past have gone under… and even those with good promoters.. the pricing is too high for any sensible purchase.
hence i am not adding any of the future group or reliance power to my portfolio (may still invest for listing gains)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 12, 2008 @ 8:41 pm
u really gotta tighten the ipo belt now
ps i left u a comment on my investg page
Comment by Prax — January 14, 2008 @ 1:09 pm
did you check Reliance Power IPO today… it got oversubscribed in a matter of 10 minutes.. and the rush of applications was so high that it dragged the entire market down with it.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 15, 2008 @ 3:21 pm
read my reliance ipo post again
mad rush at dalal street
if u need the sentiment just walk the street and u will understand
that is one thing nse cant beat bse at..
Comment by Prax — January 15, 2008 @ 5:28 pm
i agree… nse is all electronic data and numbers….
but i could never understand what is the rationale behind the mad rush for reliance
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 15, 2008 @ 5:54 pm
u dont know the power of reliance do u
things bother me now
i will post later
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 1:36 am
will wait for it
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 16, 2008 @ 6:41 am
so did u subs for future ipo
i thought as chances were slim why block funds and didnt
what have u done about reliance - full subs ?
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 6:23 pm
as per latest data 39 times retail 125 combined - FUTURE GRP
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 6:24 pm
as per latest data 4:00 pm
39 times retail 125 times oversubs combined - FUTURE GRP
reliance 2.37 times retail total 12.80
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 6:27 pm
I was like you, thinking I won’t apply to Future group because of pricing… but My father called up and suggested…. so i put 3L…
about Reliance… i think the issue would be subscribed 4 times + (after all history says most retail investors wait for the last minute)….. so it might be ok to apply for partial payment option….
(i applied 2 partial and 1 full)
PS: how do you get these numbers so fast….
http://nseindia.com/content/ipo/ipo_current_rpower.htm
nse will take another hour to publish the data.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 16, 2008 @ 6:47 pm
bcause they are straight from internal sources
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 11:23 pm
may the odds be with u —what else can i say ?
just a query was it as hni or 1*3 lakh ?
plus gut feeling i see mkts goin down
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 11:27 pm
on rel ur right mostly it should do at least 3 times
retail and 4.5 max is wat i think
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 11:28 pm
1*3…. 2 r controlled by my parents and the 3rd is mine…. unless u r applying 10-20L, there is not much incentive to go for HNI.
i agree to your gut feeling… yesterday the shipping index and the oil was also down (90$) .. both r not good signs… how has ur portfolio performed.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 16, 2008 @ 11:30 pm
there is a huge difference between 3 and 4.5….
if it goes 3.. i would have to wait for 40 days before i can get full shares. which in these turbulent times can mean a lot of difference
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 16, 2008 @ 11:32 pm
im looking at the upper end but the way markets are tanking things look a little bad and leveraged people could rethink
is it the end of the big ipo boom ?
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 11:45 pm
havent bothered to look at pf
home matters take precedence
lets see
Comment by Prax — January 16, 2008 @ 11:47 pm
as i had anticipated relaince is over subscribed 4.4 times in retail. and there r still 2 more days to go.
so partial payment makes sense.
ipo boom….
at max we can hope the prices get realistic…. but looking at future group, and reliance.. that might be tooo much to ask.
hey is everything all right at home?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 17, 2008 @ 7:19 am
I am planning to buy share. Can u suggest me which shares to buy?
Please send the queries to narendrareddyy@gmail.com
Thank you…
Comment by Narendra — January 17, 2008 @ 12:43 pm
moms out of country with sis so being home alone is not an easy affair
and managing stuff including food is a daily battle
rest is ok
yes i fear that everyone is into it for listing gains
how much premium will be left is a question….
Comment by prax — January 17, 2008 @ 1:34 pm
@Narendra…
I would suggest IPOs would be the safest bet for you to begin with. If you can muster even 25-26k, then apply for Reliance IPO…
then after that with time as you build up capital and confidence you can enter secondary market. With recession on cards… there will soon be ample investment opportunities.. but start with IPO and then move to Blue chips.
@prax…
look at the bright side… :p you can now hold hands, roam about on the streets without worrying about parental supervision
//yes i fear that everyone is into it for listing gains//
I was also observing this trend for past few months.. the stock price is highest at listing and within a week, due to selling pressure, it bottoms out.
in some stocks i made some fortune by skipping the IPO, and buying from the secondary… but its still a very risky proposition.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 17, 2008 @ 1:56 pm
im too old for parental supervision
i am 3 yrs older than u but more of a peter pan kinda person
being a net addict - i have a sad and lonely life
Comment by prax — January 17, 2008 @ 2:05 pm
@prax…
i know u r much elder and wiser than me…
i was just pulling your leg.
//being a net addict//
maybe thats ur way to explore and understand the world… and its definitely one of the most popular one
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 17, 2008 @ 2:10 pm
Suzlon Energy Stock Split - Is it worth buying?
Comment by Basu — January 17, 2008 @ 7:53 pm
@basu…
welcome to ENagar…
suzlon is a good company… but unless u r a trader, don’t buy after the split is announced.
the traders artificially inflate the prices making it a bad investment price point.
i would wait for 2 more weeks, with the recession at its peak, suzlon should be available dirt cheep
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 17, 2008 @ 8:00 pm
Thanks Ankur!
I did not quite understand “with the recession at its peak”
Comment by Basu — January 17, 2008 @ 11:42 pm
the US economy is facing recession… banks r reporting huge losses, their CEOs r getting fired, the housing companies have started failing…. the shipping and the oil consumption is going down… all signs of a recession….
and a US recession has a global impact… and would pull Indian stocks down… the correction has already started… in a few weeks time the prices would be just right.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 17, 2008 @ 11:48 pm
did u hear what rangarajan just said?
he is more like the greenspan of india
he was the big architect of the opening up of the late 90s
much more than mr mms who gets lots of the credit
Comment by Prax — January 18, 2008 @ 5:41 am
he is just the head of Economic Advisory Council…
however what i find sad is that Narsimma Rao, under whose leadership liberalization/reforms happened was disowned by his party and died in obscurity.
i could find 2 proposals by rangarajan and I agree to both of them
1) us recession will have limited impact.
2) there should be a cut in indirect taxes.
1) is true because the boom in indian economy is largely because of consumerism…. indian standard of living is raising fast and they need more goods and services… and there is no reason why it would slow down.
2) with the FTA, and lowering of import duties… indirect tax cut is inevitable….
plus with the 37% rise in direct taxes and VAT… the government can afford to do it.
also indirect taxes were stacked up against big corporation and those who complied to ethical accounting practices…. so to improve efficiency, reduce inflation etc… the tax slabs have to come down
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 18, 2008 @ 7:16 am
under whose leadership liberalization/reforms happened was his disowned by his party and died in obscurity
he is alive and kicking and mms trusts his word
Comment by prax — January 18, 2008 @ 12:32 pm
i was talking about
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P._V._Narasimha_Rao
and he died 3 years ago…
i do not know whom r u talking about
WHAT HAPPENED TO MARKET TODAY???????
I was busy all day and just realize that indian market crashed and I LOST 35K in a single day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
thank god i had no derivatives with me…. otherwise i would have got margin calls and my greedy broker would have sold my entire holdings.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 18, 2008 @ 10:19 pm
I bought into the market today.
Next week, with another 500-1000 points dip, I will try to buy more.
Mostly in the RIL and RCAP today. Some HDIL, too.
Comment by rambodoc — January 18, 2008 @ 11:40 pm
well the cnbc and ndtv folks were hinting at some big selling by select fiis
and that there was still some selling left
it was quite shocking and this was not totally unexpected and the way the mkts were moving sharply the last few days it was something i was worried about
and which bothered me as i mentioned previously
rdoc the mkt could go another 5 to 10 percent down so buy in smaller lots and be stock specific and dont hurry
Comment by Prax — January 19, 2008 @ 12:26 am
i was talkg abt rangarajan the silent architect and the ex rbi chief
Comment by Prax — January 19, 2008 @ 12:52 am
most politicians did it out of desparation
look at the current govt slowly license raj and intimidations and tax notices are in fashion again .look at ramoji rao …. does it remind u of something ?
Comment by Prax — January 19, 2008 @ 12:53 am
@prax…
firstly, I should apologize… my comments in http://enagar.com/stock-chat/#comment-34616 were ambiguous… maybe because when people talk about reforms/liberalization… i give PV Narshima rao more credit them most people (even congress)…
PS: i edited them to make it more clear.
secondly… i found 2 proposals be Rangarajan… and I still unsure about which one you were pointing to.
//ramoji Rao//
http://www.livemint.com/2008/01/15235548/FIPB-okays-new-Blackstone-deal.html
I agree that Red Tape is still being used… but recently media made a big issue out of it.. and it has set the wheels rolling.
Recently I have developed a very dispassionate view towards FDI (both by Indian companies buying abroad… or abroad companies buying indian)…. what I am really concerned about whether the particular action increase the Brand Value and Productivity of the nation or not…..
@Ram…
I totally agree with Prax’s assessment of the market.
Prepare your warchest, sharpen your knives and wait for the right moment…
Be like Prince Alwaleed bin Talal (Citibank)… a few years ago when citi was in trouble, he made a huge investment (became the single largest share holder)… now this time again he is again increasing the investment…
Prax himself sold a lot of mf, UTI etc and is waiting…
I am also sitting with large amounts of bonds, cash and FD… If the price is right… I can afford to double my investments and wait for even a year for the grim clouds can disappear…
so just don’t over stretch yourself and try to stay away from margin trading and futures.. where any sharp movement will force your broker to automatically square off your positions.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 19, 2008 @ 1:48 am
i see politicians as businessmen….
1) both invest in areas where they can get maximum bang for their buck,
2) can go to any lengths to prevent losing their territory
3) and most importantly try to stay away from controversy and negative news as much as possible.
now the only way to get the best deal is to get the best deal from them is to play their fears against them…
become so much demanding and vociferous that politicians can no longer treat you as votebanks or constituencies as personal fiefdom.
“All it takes for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing” - Edmund Burke
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 19, 2008 @ 1:56 am
true true ! as always brilliant
Comment by Prax — January 19, 2008 @ 11:25 am
http://blog.investraction.com/2008/01/icici-bank-results-eps-growth-is-2.html
And I thought icici bank was doing great….
BTW what do you guys think about KLG Systel?
I was researching Anil Group. It looks like all the stocks of the stocks are heavily manipulated.
Everybody knows about RNRL, Rel Infra,.. Even Reliance Telecom has half the sales of Bharti (lesser profit margins)… yet both of them have the same market cap.
If Reliance Power lists at 1000/- (as expected)… then its market capitalization would be many times NTPC……
I am smelling fish.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 21, 2008 @ 10:32 am
well i was smelling them a long time ago
generating a mkt demand for ur stock is easy in the bull mkt
but when everyone is into it for listing gains what will happen ?
read a piece that the mfs were weary and purchased a fraction that
too on the last day for the Rel pwr ipo
Comment by prax — January 21, 2008 @ 11:16 am
today at 10:05 when I logged in, the market had already hit the lower circuit….
my god its a complete melt down
Today evening I am planning to put my money into
Alok Industries: Low PE
1) NTPC (Recession Proof stock)
2) Morgan Stanley (i am treating it like an index fund)
3) Edelweiss
4) Tata Steel… i still think the company can do great wonders.
5) SCI: Because of the healthy cash it has.
6) Apollo Hospitals: its 25% below the last sale i made.
7) Omaxe… i always liked their promoters… and they have rewarded me generously.
9) Su Raj Diamonds… its 30% below my last sale (113/-)
10) Reliance Industries: There is never ever a better time to enter.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 22, 2008 @ 10:13 am
wow
u also were thinking on the same lines
on suraj be a bit careful it can be operator or promoter driven so
essentially u may nt get the same profits
Comment by prax — January 22, 2008 @ 12:15 pm
i dont know
first the mess and the margin calls and stuff like leverage position clearing and the broker exchange turbulence should be sorted out today
trrow or tonite when the dow opens lets see what happens
if the dow slides above points expect one more selloff from jittery investors
in another day or two i think its time to buy on limit orders that too good blue chips that might have been sold in distress to pay for leverage losses
im a bit worried on fate or reliance
people might have put a stop pmt after mkts tanked so
how many had u put in ?? i took 3 lots part pmt for all in family
a mistake in hindsight but i expect it to open at bit disc say 430
to ipo price plus i dont know how allotments will be made
and will he hold the part pmt shares on purpose so that the investors get
locked for a longer duration
if he does it he will loose out on whatever is left of his father’s good name that im sure cause a huge subs has happened in gujrat
Comment by Prax — January 22, 2008 @ 2:46 pm
//trrow or tonite when the dow opens lets see what happens//
i already made my commitments today….
so now i have no more purchasing capacity left. I can withstand losses for another month or 2, but after that i will start bleeding.
I put in 3L in Reliance Power and Future group each. and as promised, i am going to sell them immediately after listing.. even if it lists at a discount…. I learned from maniksia and Brigade.. that holding these stocks can be fatal.
//if he does it he will loose out on whatever is left of his father’s good name that im sure cause a huge subs has happened in gujrat//
well I can guarantee you one thing.. his father believed in creating wealth and sharing with the stake holders. (he was probably the first indian to do it in those massive scales)..
This guy on the other hand is cashing on that good will and creating castles in air… if u remember my yesterday’s post… Anil group is destined to fall like a pack of cards
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 22, 2008 @ 3:13 pm
@Ram…
a month ago you were inquiring about GAIL and I shot your down saying that all the revenue is coming from other income….
Well today I came to know that other income is because of the rentals for the extensive Gas and Fiber lines which Gail owns and operates.
hope that clears things up
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 26, 2008 @ 10:42 pm
Did you get Future capital and Reliance Power? I got allotments for both.
Comment by Ruhi — January 31, 2008 @ 9:39 am
Hi
From where we can check the allotment status of Reliance power ipo? Can please provide link for that?
Thank you.
Vivek K
Comment by vivek k — January 31, 2008 @ 9:53 am
Vivek- it’s not been uploaded on Karvy. But if you’ve applied for min. 1 lakh, then you’ll get allotment.
Ankur, correct?
Comment by Ruhi — January 31, 2008 @ 10:04 am
i did not see the future group or reliance shares in my demat account, nor the refund.
but yes as ruhi said, everybody who made a full application should get the allotment for Rel Power. However future group would be a matter of luck.
@ruhi…
since when did u start investing in india?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 31, 2008 @ 11:02 am
hey guys i just posted on the ipos on my blog
so chk it out and comment
Comment by prax — January 31, 2008 @ 11:13 am
future group has started with the allotment process
so Ankur u should get something soon
Comment by prax — January 31, 2008 @ 11:14 am
//hey guys i just posted on the ipos on my blog//
stealing traffic from my blog?
just kidding
//Ankur u should get something soon//
i better be, I put in 3 applications… but on second thoughts.. i would be happier to get a refund
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 31, 2008 @ 11:25 am
Ankur, I’m a passive player. My mom/dad give me the name of the companies and then I help them analyze it with my finance/accounting acumen. So, yes, they buy stocks and IPOs under my name after I say yes…
Comment by Ruhi — January 31, 2008 @ 11:53 am
//I help them analyze it with my finance/accounting acumen. //
yups i have also learned a lot from it…
only yesterday when there was a dispute.. we sought ur expert opinion.
and i agree passive players r the best.. very high success rates, huge profit margins and almost zero tension.
if market overheats, good.. time to sell
if it crashes, even better.. time to buy
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 31, 2008 @ 12:23 pm
//only yesterday when there was a dispute.. we sought ur expert opinion.
Flatterer!
Comment by Ruhi — January 31, 2008 @ 12:28 pm
onno 60
i fully agree with most things
except stealing traffic from my blog? point
guess what i give u 5 hits a day so stop complaining
Comment by prax — January 31, 2008 @ 4:23 pm
//guess what i give u 5 hits a day so stop complaining
//
i was just kidding.. thats why i immediately commented on the post.
BTW sold all the Edelweiss. I had also put Omaxe for sale, but looks like the trigger never hit
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 31, 2008 @ 4:30 pm
me too, all in good humor - i hope u dont mind
Comment by Prax — February 1, 2008 @ 1:31 am
u arnt holding many stocks nyways
so essentially what u did is sold most of the stocks u bought on the crash day or before and r goin into wait and watch
that is a handsome gain
keep me posted
Comment by prax — February 1, 2008 @ 5:44 pm
//r goin into wait and watch//
exactly. I have a feeling the market has not yet touched its bottom.
http://www.livemint.com/2008/02/01002027/Industry-sales-profit-growth.html
otherwise also what i have observed is that if i have a portfolio larger than what I am currently holding (in rupee terms), the fun out of investing vanishes and then it becomes a serious business.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 1, 2008 @ 6:09 pm
@Ruhi and Vivek….
all those who applied for full 1L should be getting 17 shares of reliance power. and it is expected to be listed at 500/- (however i would recommend people to sell these shares ASAP)
PS: sold 12 TISCO shares, and 15 bharti shares
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 3, 2008 @ 11:02 pm
ankur im on a cleanup drive tell me hold or dump and why if u have the time
f inftech
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=547
Comment by prax — February 5, 2008 @ 10:38 pm
in hindsight i thought u sold the power stocks a bit too early
no regrets u still made gains nonetheless
on reliance pwr ud get 16 or 17 and refunds too by now
yes waiting would be hopeless and i just hope there is no meltdown else there could be a big big crash in rel pwr
Comment by prax — February 5, 2008 @ 10:40 pm
the way u r selling they are all limit orders i think
Comment by prax — February 5, 2008 @ 10:41 pm
tell me what i am seeing is wrong….
over the past 5 years the fund has constantly underperformed the IT index….
I would love to invest in IT companies… esp if u have a 1-2 year time frame…. but quit this mf ASAP
Today i went to a Seminar with a speech by Anders Fogh Rasmussen …. man looking at the denmark.. i think IT in india still has a lot of steam left
PS: mf is mutual fund…
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 5, 2008 @ 10:43 pm
no for the first 4 days i was putting only market orders…
only now i have started putting limit orders……..
about power shares….
i know i sold them in a hurry, but then 7k in 40 hours is good money
i got 51 shares of reliance power (3 applications)…
about dip… actually i am waiting for a major correction….
about debt funds…. i was too late.. bonds already have moved from 7.99% to 7.63% (which is the biggest movement in 5 years)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 5, 2008 @ 10:51 pm
that was real fast!!
on reliance- i got 49 lets see what happens
i couldn’t sell many mfs as the uti people had blocked my div of 30 grand from a mf and even after going to the ceo and his office 2 times nothing much has been done since 6+ months this is tiering … and frustrating and time saping
at least those idiots have sent me a letter that they have sent the matter to karvy - they r changing registrars and this is a whole bloody holy mess
Never look at utimf ….
i value ur opinion
ill give u a list tell me what u think i should do most are sells as all from the uti stable- i have to track the dividends before i sell as i held them since 1991/2 and once sold there is no expecting a record at uti …
on k infotech
i know it is a bad fund i had put money during the tech boom and im marginally gaining now, but u were very bullish on infy n tech sector and u have the knowhow
Comment by prax — February 5, 2008 @ 11:20 pm
nyways what is ur gameplan ur pf consists of 3 stocks high concentration high risk in short term - which stocks r on ur radar - the list u sent me on trading call or what?
Comment by prax — February 5, 2008 @ 11:22 pm
//that was real fast!!//
i was checking about underwritters and whether any of the current IPOs have a green shoe offer
//Never look at utimf ….//
take my advise… don’t invest in a mf.. most of them will underperform.
instead go for the index funds .. but only if u have a long term horizon.
//i value ur opinion//
none of the fundamental analysis which u and I do are valid with them.
thanks man, but i have no clue about mf
but yes i can tell u one thing. K infotech is bleeding u while its managers r taking fat bonuses…..
if possible sue them
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 5, 2008 @ 11:33 pm
k tech is loaded with the big 5 so i could wait and see if they go up short term and sell on basis of infy valn which is 35% of that pf
plus what do u think about tcs cleanup and staff resignations
most r my mums holdings and r big 5000units n more
1. uti mp91 since 1991
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=241
2. uti opportunities - since 92 rolled over
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=2820
3. mastergrowth since 93 i think is a sell - smaller holdg
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=258
4. lastly uti ulip small holdg http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/mutualfunds/mfinfo/23/36/snapshot/imdesc/UTI%20Unit%20Linked%20Insurance%20Plan/ffdesc/UTI%20Asset%20Mgmt%20Company%20Pvt.%20Ltd./imid/MUT018/imffid/UT
Comment by prax — February 5, 2008 @ 11:37 pm
if possible sue them
u know it is impractical
well ill have to marry first cause by the time case is done with … ill be a senior citizen with a big bill
Comment by prax — February 5, 2008 @ 11:38 pm
one thing is for certain in short terms lawyers will not be service taxed
come to think of it as turnaround time is anywhere between 5 yrs and decade
it is great to tax them plus their incomes will automatically come under scrutiny
Comment by prax — February 5, 2008 @ 11:40 pm
the market is too turbulent for me to do anything meaningful…
i am looking for a good bargain… and i cannot find any
neways don’t expect any action till 22nd of Feb… (one month holiday)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 5, 2008 @ 11:58 pm
i am sure they and their firms r subject to income tax…
my point was don’t go for mutual funds….
if u really like a fund, then go visit its website every evening and try mimicking its portfolio.
i know u have a big enough portfolio… and good enough wits to beat them by timing the markets better.
neways these days i am too confused…. i have read so many recession theories that my mind is all messed up
BTW stay away from Rel Infratel (tower business)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 6, 2008 @ 12:09 am
same here ,
subj to it - which can be easily evaded while service tax means stuff on record
im stayin away from the ipo mkts
what r u doin with ur liquid funds ?
Comment by prax — February 6, 2008 @ 12:13 am
I just paid IT, FBT etc etc…..
then i always like to have a 50-50 split between fd and stock market (this high allocation is because i have no fixed assets/inheritance)
so i guess there is only 2-3L of investable cash with me.
and since i do not know how much time it will take for me to find a good investment opportunity and that i was too late to enter into bond market.. so I have booked FD
but i am in no hurry
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 6, 2008 @ 12:22 am
1, 2 look like good funds
3 is ok…
and i doubt whether there is anything u could do about ulip.. because the exit loads r enormous.
about tcs, infy…. fundamentals do not change because of it.. and 500 people r not even 1% of the workforce (attrition being 30%)…. so stay put
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 6, 2008 @ 1:36 am
i dont quite know as my ulips had lapsed
so lets see what the rules are on that
thanks for ur inputs
Comment by Prax — February 6, 2008 @ 2:28 pm
Morgan Stanley Growth Fund is goin open ended
unlocking of value???
Comment by prax — February 6, 2008 @ 2:49 pm
//Morgan Stanley Growth Fund is goin open ended unlocking of value???//
why else do you think i have been investing in it for past 2 years…
last year december the ETF was available at a 15% discount to the NAV (32/-).
since then the discount has gradually reduced from 15% to 5% (and the fund has consistently gave the sensex returns)….
hence it was not a bad investment…….. my father’s pick
BTW taking your advise, I sold another 50 TISCO and 70 SCI shares to reduce the risk and exposure to a fewer number of stocks.
About NTPC… thank god I sold those shares at 220.. today it closed at 206 (tempting, but i think a month long curfew would do good for my portfolio)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 7, 2008 @ 10:57 am
220 was a great price i also saw it as a sell at 225+
im still holding mine long term lets see
what do u think abt the mkts now
Comment by Prax — February 8, 2008 @ 2:23 am
if u recall our conversation 3 weeks ago, we had anticipated that market will really touch its bottom within the next one month or so.
if the market loses another 600 points or so, i will start purchasing…… what about u?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 8, 2008 @ 6:52 am
as i havent sold much i expect to stay put when i sell i will rebuy
this mkt is very choppy with downwd bias
so nything can happen still i think one has to be stock specific
keep me posted
Comment by Prax — February 8, 2008 @ 12:27 pm
im interested in banking and finance and budget favoring cos
as this one would be populist
lets keep an eye
Comment by Prax — February 8, 2008 @ 12:33 pm
//so nything can happen still i think one has to be stock specific//
the prices have only started correcting.. but I am yet to locate a real good buy.
//im interested in banking and finance and budget favoring cos//
i would stay away from NBFC, because by the year the end all the international banks will come in a big way and the competition they will induce will kill the profitability by a large extend.
banks… i am seeing a dangerous trend. Although they are able to mob up large sums of money, the credit offtake is not increasing in the same proportion. Hence more and more money is getting parked in low yield treasury bonds…. not a healthy sign…
but then a good/bad pick depends all on the price u need to pay for it
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 8, 2008 @ 2:09 pm
http://www.livemint.com/2008/02/11002526/India-for-dutyfree-imports-fr.html
This a a wonderful move.
in the short term, it will reduce the oil subsidy incurred by the oil PSU. but in the long term it will make india recession proof by increasing our access to a continent that will continue to grow irrespective of the World Economy.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 11, 2008 @ 11:09 am
buying opportunities today???
Comment by PRAX — February 11, 2008 @ 1:07 pm
Prax: NO! I see the Nifty going to 4400 levels, at least once.
I have thought of the following prices to buy these:
RIL: 2100
RCAP: 1550
GMR: 120
L&T: 3150-3250
BHEL: 1950-2050
SBI: 2000
ICICI: 900-1050
HDIL: 650-750
Sesa Goa: 2600 (I am not buying this, though)
Any thoughts, Ankur?
Comment by rambodoc — February 11, 2008 @ 2:28 pm
I do not know, although the prices look attractive (esp of the power sector) i still feel that the market has not bottomed out.
btw SBI has unilaterally cut the PLR indicating the banks have too much cash and not many loan seekers and that its spreads r under threat.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 11, 2008 @ 2:34 pm
@ram…
i would agree with u. Nifty futures are trading at a discount from the current price. Indicating that the bears r to stay.
good to see you all charged up
from your list, i would like to stay away from Sesa and HDIL… in the volatile times like this blue chips are always better.
BTW i think all ur targets have either been hit or are on the verge of hitting today
so happy buying
I have my eyes on
1) Ambuja Cement
2) ICICI Bank
3) Su-Raj Diamonds
4) more Morgan Stanley (betting on index)
5) some more NTPC.
@prax…
i know i should have waited a little longer.. but can’t help the human greed
i could not resist buying 300 NTPC stocks today
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 11, 2008 @ 9:42 pm
well good to see that u have done research doc
i still think there were some buying opps today, the only diff should be lot size do u know abt sip? i think sip is a good technique if u dont know the exact bottom so buy small lots when u see the bottom is close
already the mkts are below 200 day movg avgs and things r starting to look gloomy which means bottoms r near - short or intermediate i dont know
on sbi the ceo/mds have to go to a meeting with mr pc trrow thus this was expected as he has breathing down their neck to cut rates
and get this right the owners of psus r not the people but politicians
so my defn of psus is Political slave units
still ok u have made a lot of gains and ntpc aint that bad now wd go down max 5/10% more so dont regret
Comment by prax — February 11, 2008 @ 10:23 pm
//well good to see that u have done research doc
//
) ya, plus the companies r also blue chips for a change.
//i still think there were some buying opps today,//
none of the 5 stocks which i was tracking was at a real discount….
btw what did u do?
// the only diff should be lot size do u know abt sip?//
i believe in SDP. systematic disinvestment plan. its easier to find a good buy, but its hard to time the exit.
// i think sip is a good technique if u dont know the exact bottom so buy small lots when u see the bottom is close//
i would second that. i will buy another 200 NTPC in the next stage
yups
// already the mkts are below 200 day movg avgs //
does not matter.. i want a portfolio that would give me a decent returns over the next 6 months and at no time goes below 5-10% of the investment price.
//and things r starting to look gloomy which means bottoms r near - short or intermediate i dont know//
another 500-600 point correction would be nice
//so my defn of psus is Political slave units//
i would agree.. and these short sighted politicians know how to destroy wealth.
//still ok u have made a lot of gains //
each and every penny from that went back to GoI on taxes
//ntpc aint that bad now wd go down max 5/10% more so dont regret//
i had anticipated that power would go down today … but damm my parents, one of their friend lost 8L and they have censored me from the fno…
btw whats ur watchlist?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 11, 2008 @ 11:19 pm
I goofed up last week.
I had totally stopped trading after my losses. But on Thursday, Tulsian gave a very specific trade guide on Sesa Goa. I tried it, but bought 50. End of story: I have 1.57 lakhs worth of Sesa Goa, when I could have well used it for RIL, LNT, etc.
Will try to sell it at the next bounce. Moral of the story: no one knows the market like they pretend to.
Also bought Adlabs at 920 yes’day, but today, it touched 814, I believe. No one can really scrape the bottom of this market, I think. Sip method is what I have been doing.
Comment by rambodoc — February 11, 2008 @ 11:22 pm
I meant to say that after I bought Sesa Goa for 3175, it fell. so I am holding on to it. I think it will touch 2500-2600.
Comment by rambodoc — February 11, 2008 @ 11:23 pm
@ram…
1) please reduce the size of ur transactions…. esp when u r investing in non-blue chip firms.
//I goofed up last week.//
part of the game.. i am still 50k in red
3) Sesa just made itself a windfall, if it repeats this performance next quarter, then u have got urself a winner.
4) BTW u should be getting a dividend as an consolation prize.
//no one knows the market like they pretend to.//
) nobody knows .. and if they knew, they would be minting millions every hour.
the only strategy that works is not putting all ur eggs in one basket and systematic investment/disinvestment
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 12, 2008 @ 12:00 am
i second ankur
sesa is a hot papad heavily traded
markets and guesstimation go together
tulsian is no doubt good but mkts r mkts
Comment by Prax — February 12, 2008 @ 3:04 am
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/IBD-0001-22942723.htm
i think i should now discount the news of foreign banks would next year stir things up….
opening a new branch/starting new operations is a long term investment and banks would be so much busy trying to keep their head above water to worry about that.
plus if they make a slow entry, it will give SBI and ICICI enough time to become a formidable challenge to anybody entering their home turf.
what do u say
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 12, 2008 @ 7:10 am
hey what is in ur watchlist ill update mine tonight
Comment by Prax — February 12, 2008 @ 11:07 am
updated
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 12, 2008 @ 11:26 am
can u fwd me the table thing
Comment by prax — February 12, 2008 @ 11:51 am
what do u see the mkts doin ? im awefully confused
i meant watch pf not ur pf
on budget dreams what do u think the fm cannot miss power and infrastructure and shipping as this nation needs real reforms in these sectors - for overall growth - plus this will be a dole budget as superpm must be tad bit shaky seeing the recent losses
on foreign banks the best they will think of is takeover good pvt banks if they r serious but the doldrums us banks r in i doubt if they can get back to healthy by then -citi was keen to takeover hdfc bank but decided against it
hdfc icici sbi and maybe boi, corp bank would survive grow and compete
but the first 2 will have the advantage of speed and reach as they arent political slave units
did u read investor blog? the ramifications of downgrading of insurance companies insuring us municipal bonds can be huge no doubt…
did u get rid of ur reliance pwr cause my limit order bummed and was a tad bit late i feel like playing it
Comment by prax — February 12, 2008 @ 12:00 pm
ah sorry didnt read ur footnotes - why dont u integrate it into ur pf list under watch and fill in the blanks
Comment by prax — February 12, 2008 @ 12:01 pm
< table style=”font-size: 10pt; font-family: ‘Lucida Sans Unicode’; color: navy” border=”1″ cellpadding=”1″ cellspacing=”0″ width=”700″ >
< tr >
< th > no. < /th >
< th >Stock < /th >
< /tr >
</table >
replace all < with > or <
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 12, 2008 @ 12:32 pm
cant figure out what ur saying
Comment by prax — February 12, 2008 @ 12:42 pm
//what do u see the mkts doin ? im awefully confused//
i myself don’t know… all i can say is that unless a good news comes soon, the markets will continue to remain sluggish….
use this opportunity to buy some good stocks at good prices (i put triggers for sur-dia, ambuja today)
there is power shortage, and power exchange is going to come up soon.. hence NTPC.
plus reliance mess is its gain… but somehow market is punishing the entire sector.
Indian shipping should not be as badly hit as the world shipping hence SCI (contrarian)
cement is commodity and I believe as long as infrastructure is booming so should be cement… but commercial/residential property construction is going to take a hit + a lot of plants r coming up which will suppress the prices… ACC has a lot of old plants and compared to that Ambuja has better profit margins and better quality output. So Ambuja should do better than its peers.
Foreign banks r in no position to make a capital investment… so that fear of mine is mitigated… but decline in credit off take is a concern. maybe SBI will do better than ICICI in such times (because of lower PE) and treasury rate cuts. but still i cannot make my mind to invest in slave units.
Reliance power… i sold it before 10:15 (made enough profit to cover the interest rate costs)
unfortunately my father is still holding 34 stocks
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 12, 2008 @ 12:46 pm
http://enagar.com/stock-chat/#comment-35333
see if its better
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 12, 2008 @ 12:52 pm
i was abit lousy on it will sell it later
Comment by prax — February 12, 2008 @ 1:08 pm
fully agree on ambuja have u chkd out the seeking alpha india blog
if a person in us sees the repeat of a californian condo
i see a huge overvaluation of propstocks and prop which has
3ripled and 4dropled in last 3 yrs - we are staring a huge asset price bubble what say u-?
Comment by prax — February 12, 2008 @ 1:13 pm
well DLF, the stalwart of realty is facing trouble (remember my post on it), Emmar withdrew its IPO… so i won’t touch realty even with a barge stick.
however what i like is that people are confusing realty with infrastructure and construction… and some good buys might be locatable there
http://seekingalpha.com/article/63763-india-s-exploding-real-estate-market-shades-of-the-florida-condo-bubble
//Will someone please explain this to me? How can farmers that make less than $1000 per annum continue to own land that is valued (notionally) at several $100K? Are the low rental yields (2-5%) indicative of the bubble?//
wonderful article…
Bought 500 Ambuja Cement, 1000 su-raj diamonds
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 12, 2008 @ 1:59 pm
Ankur:
Su-raj Diamonds is a good buy? What is your investment horizon and sell target?
Incidentally, what is the difference between EPS and earning on average equity?
Comment by rambodoc — February 12, 2008 @ 7:23 pm
http://enagar.com/2007/10/04/su-raj-diamonds/
i had bought this share at 53/- sold it at 113/- after 2 months and today the stock was at 60/-
so had to re-enter….
all the investment horizon at this time is 6 months +
earning on average equity: net income/ no of stocks (both Preferential as well as common) + there is some correction if the shareholdings changed.
EPS: (net income - P stock dividend)/ no of common stock…..
for all practical purposes look at EPS only (however if the 2 numbers r differ widely, then its a red flag)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 12, 2008 @ 7:36 pm
cleared Apollo hospitals today
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 14, 2008 @ 12:09 pm
u were positive on the tech sector -what happened ? ur completely out of it and not watching it
which sectors r u +ve on?
Comment by Prax — February 15, 2008 @ 4:41 pm
i think i should sell some ongc it is rather ripe after the petro hike
i was in two minds wait for the oil ipo so that govt makes it sweet to
for people
but still it is extensively undervalued because it is a political slave unit
Comment by Prax — February 15, 2008 @ 4:43 pm
* significantly
Comment by Prax — February 15, 2008 @ 4:43 pm
i did not like the way TCS was cutting costs.
plus i got a healthy returns on my investment in IT. however the problem with IT is that i have a significant exposure to Broadcom stocks and if i add my dependency because of occupation, then the sum total becomes too high. Hence i backed out of IT.
the power exchange because of which i was bullish on Power Grid and NTPC is called off, because the SEB were not willing to pay the market price for electricity.
that plus gas shortage in various NTPC’s plants and coal price hike is making me rethink the entire strategy 
apollo hospital quarterly performance was pathetic.. looks like all the fortune is going to the doctors management and promoters and nothing is ever going to trickle down to investors.
honestly i am totally confused right now…. i have no clarity or strategy in mind. what about u
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 15, 2008 @ 4:58 pm
yups, this is the best time for offloading oil.
btw ne recommendations for pre-budget purchases?
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 15, 2008 @ 4:59 pm
nothing specific on budgets but will tell u when i find one
markets will stay in a tight price band for sure
i think infra has to look good cause there is a big need to get lots the infrastructure right
so what are ur views on tech sector india as a whole never mind ur personal motications of staying out due to broadcom
this budget will be for making all happy and if it is super populist
it means elections once krishnamurty is out of ec and navin chawla gets another running mate so there is complete control of congi on the ec functioning.
pc has had it for him - the easiest 4 yrs of policy - now things r changing and mkts are turning whatever happens finance minister doesn’t have it easy anymore , and the figure fudging master pc will have it a lot tougher to do what he does best
Comment by Prax — February 16, 2008 @ 11:53 am
i agree that infra will continue to do well, but still i am unable to locate a good bargain.
about IT sector…. the US recession will not negatively impact their balance sheet (while the markets have thrashed their shares) so for the next year or so we can continue to stay invested.. but in the 5 year timeframe… i believe that outsourcing would be tough.
1) its very hard to scale the business up. indian colleges r not being able to keep up with the demand already and hence infy, TCS have to spend a lot of time training freshers.
2) some other cost effective center will soon emerge.. hence tcs, infy r moving some of their offices to Philippines, china etc.
BTW sold 400 SCI and 50 TISCO today
and what do u think about this stock
http://www.premiuminvestments.in/stock-recommendation-9078/101/A-perfect-%E2%80%9Cpet%E2%80%9D-for-your-portfolio.html
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 18, 2008 @ 7:52 am
hows icicibk for selling ??
Comment by Prax — February 18, 2008 @ 2:13 pm
today the price is running at a week high.. so your timing could never be better.
about keeping in the portfolio/exiting….
personally i would like to exit it before everybody realizes that the bank boom was due to housing EMIs and people r not buying houses now as many as they used to.
but on a long term.. its always a jewel. (my father holds about 300 of them)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 18, 2008 @ 2:41 pm
agreed but with one good fall in the us i could rebuy
plus i have almost trippled on my innitial purchase
im lucky my rel power limit orders didnt hit
will eventually sell those buggers around 430 or on bonus
Comment by Prax — February 18, 2008 @ 3:11 pm
prax, if you really want to get hands on with the options icici bank might not be a bad choice.
the stock is very volatile and if you time it well you might be able to make a 10-20k profit in a week (else be prepared to lose your entire 5-10k investment)
BTW: i do not see any major upward revision in banking stocks this quarter.
rel power… i agree the bonus was more generous that what i would have expected, but i would again say that book some profit/loss before the record date.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 18, 2008 @ 3:20 pm
i think we r goin thru a pre budget rally and mostly it will fizzle out by friday dep on global cues
Comment by prax — February 19, 2008 @ 2:49 pm
yups you stand corrected.
and with our direct tax collection increasing by a record 35-40% and the deficit going down (on account of higher tax collections and falling interest rates) I am sure that FII would find india and INR as more attractive destinations.
I just can’t wait to get my hands on a copy of “Economic survey of India”
BTW what do you think about INDIABULLS…. they are into almost all the sectors of the economy and seems to have really deep coffers to fund the investment plans… but do they have a sound management team to back this ambition?
neways i am more curious about oil prices. i really want to enter into commodity markets, and I know this would be a perfect time for a debut. But there is a little bit of me that is stopping me from it
BTW: http://www.livemint.com/2008/02/19010858/Banks-have-enough-liquidity-I.html
49 out of every 50/- raised by banks went into bonds/govt securities that yields a very low returns. in value terms, it is a 30% rise over previous years….
so I believe that in the long term, the banks might be faced with a downward correction in valuation (although I still feel that good banks will continue to grow at 3X the GDP growth)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 19, 2008 @ 3:52 pm
well they havent factored in the oil bonds hit on the gdp as a percentage of fiscal deficit and i think smart investors arnt that stupid
bt nonetheless these r rosy figures
commodity mkts req a lot of margins chk it out
Comment by prax — February 20, 2008 @ 12:12 am
have u applied for rec ipo?
Comment by Prax — February 20, 2008 @ 12:21 am
ya, india still follows cash based accounting and these Oil bonds are not supposed to be maturing any time soon and until then everything would be rosy.
about REC.. no, i am still waiting for the cash from my monday sales. I would probably reuse that money for the REC. but i do intend to apply.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 20, 2008 @ 6:04 am
i have a feeling that Anil is thinking BIG… and the only way he can do it is by restoring the goodwill. hence you could buy a few Rel Power stocks for the bonus ratio announcement. (i just bought 900 of them)
BTW i put 3 applications for REC
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 21, 2008 @ 4:38 pm
yes h thinks like his father but there r global factors at play now
it is not old india where ministers influenced decision making,,,
he has at least 3 ipos lined up and he doesnt want to throw the baby out of the bathwater
why a put on itc?
Comment by Prax — February 21, 2008 @ 8:44 pm
whatever if he loses money for people now, his other 2 IPOs would be undersubscribed and without funds, he like his father cannot expand and fulfill their dreams.
about ITC, i was just wondering why the stock did not fall in this rally … its a very improbably that i will make money in this deal, but the money i put for this option was also peanuts.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 21, 2008 @ 9:42 pm
it is a defensive stock plus it is diversifying
close to budget u might see a fall cause fms have always targeted tobacco
Comment by Prax — February 21, 2008 @ 11:12 pm
i still feel ur overstretched on rpl
http://www.premiuminvestments.in/cover-feature-9430/106/Reliance-power-bonus-ratio-.html
this stock is goin down whatever cause there is no inherent dd for he shares
and this is a big gamble play
got ur comment on shares to analyze- will look into it
Comment by Prax — February 24, 2008 @ 2:53 pm
also read sucheta her post is good
Comment by Prax — February 24, 2008 @ 2:54 pm
i had anticipated bonus to be 1:2 (3:6), but Anil gave me marginally better 3:5
my calculations say the stock should reach 450-470
//i still feel ur overstretched on rpl//
i totally agree and i will square off RPL early morning tomorrow…. its just that i was out of the market for one whole month, so thought i should make a grand comeback…. and 1800 looked like a good number
for alok and tata motors, i intend to make a long term 60k investment each…. but provided i can time the market well
will reach sucheta, but somehow i have a feeling she would be just criticizing Anil
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 24, 2008 @ 4:53 pm
havent yet researched them but tata can go up if nano gamble proves a hit
well i do think there will be a good trading bet in rel power
all in all fundamentals dont favor rpower still
Comment by Prax — February 25, 2008 @ 12:06 am
on sucheta she has raised some very valid points on this precedent
Comment by Prax — February 25, 2008 @ 12:08 am
the problem with Tata is that it is going overboard with acquisitions. and it will take one failed acquisition to be its Waterloo…. some people feel that Jaquar and Rover may drag tata motors down.
sucheta… i agree to her views and she always raises a lot of good points on morality and legality of what happens in markets. i agree reliance power (and even NTPC) are not portfolio stocks…..
however looking closely, this bonus offer is completely legal. reliance energy stake is not being diluted and will continue to stay at 45% (because of transfer of shares from Anil to Rel Energy).. hence its share holders cannot object.
even the SEBI chief says that there are multiple ways to legalize the offer. primarily being to issue preferential shares at zero cost and then ask the promoters to opt out of it etc etc. neways I am sure Anil knows what he is doing.
unfortunately, looks like my gamble is not paying off
there are only sellers in the future market and not many buyers. i am hoping that by evening or tomorrow the market conditions would be more conducive. but with an open position of 1800, I am a sitting duck
all the odds r against the power companies. SEB r not clearing their dues in time, there is a serious Gas shortage, all the coal needs to be imported at ever rising costs because coal india cannot cope up with the demand, the equipment manufacturers are a bottleneck and energy exchange (which could have standardized the costs and bring efficiencies) is not finding sufficient interests.
if NTPC reaches 210, i am exiting it
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 25, 2008 @ 8:04 am
NTPC not portfolio stock ??? thanks to the fm and the psu status
even im tempted to exit at close to 225
i regret not selling during the boom -it is a bit sad im holding since ipo
there could be some positives in budget if the fm is a sensible person
Comment by prax — February 25, 2008 @ 11:55 am
what happened didnt it touch 450 in spot mkts ??
fundamentally as the stock has a gestation of 2yrs it didnt make sense to invest as the stock is still a sell…
Comment by prax — February 25, 2008 @ 11:58 am
there r just not any buyers in the futures, the whole world had expected Anil to give a good bonus and intended to sell the shares immediately after that
the futures are still at a significant discounts to the spot… and going by the current trends i would be lucky to make a profit of 20k (against my estimate of 70k, and after a more than expected bonus ratio)
)so that significantly reduced my downside risk, but the options which i had bought are at a loss (odd right )
neways I sold off 1 lot of futures (at 425
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 25, 2008 @ 12:19 pm
This is a bloody MONDAY
my portfolio seems to be at a mess…. all i am left with are commodity stocks (cement, steel, gems, power, biotech and shipping) which i thought should do well in STAGFLATION.. something which according to Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, never give a good long term ROI.
i was banking on power sector because i thought that there is a perennial shortage which makes it a great area to do business with. but without fuel, equipment and fair prices I doubt if this PSU can meet the market expectations. (which is quite bullish)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 25, 2008 @ 12:31 pm
u should get exit opp close to the record date on rp even im waiting
indian mkts are bearish by nature -and highly speculative- there is recession expectations in us still it is up - india has a neg divergence from the dow….
sometimes u got to stick to ur convictions
Comment by Prax — February 25, 2008 @ 12:53 pm
http://moneylife.in/CMS.nsf/AL3?openform&Stocks~Cover%20Story~Only%20Sniffing
Comment by Prax — February 25, 2008 @ 12:59 pm
//sometimes u got to stick to ur convictions//
and reading all these reports is just strengthening my conviction that I should go for another 1-2 month long break and then re-evaluate.
sounds good, but the only problem is that i am not being able to make up my mind
are you able to locate any good BUY (a modest 20% p.a. upside with negligible chance of a downside in a good A group company is what I am looking for)
BTW from your link Kesoram Industries looks good.. whats ur take on it?
//u should get exit opp close to the record date on rp even im waiting//
i do not see that happening before 1st week of April… and I won’t be surprised if another bear run comes by that time. so i would again say 450-470 is a fair price to square off and don’t be too greedy.
as advised by you, i squared off the entire position (profit of 33.5k) in 2 trading sessions is not bad for a comeback after a month long self imposed exile
I could have made twice this money if I had not panicked, but still it was worth it..
even got rid of NTPC and ITC.
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 25, 2008 @ 1:55 pm
as advised by you
being confused myself what did u take as my advise
nyways mkts r so choppy that u can buy a day and sell the next making profits
the entry price has to be right
Comment by prax — February 25, 2008 @ 3:42 pm
//being confused myself what did u take as my advise//
that REL Pow is a sell and I am over exposed.. hence i got rid of the entire stake.
//nyways mkts r so choppy that u can buy a day and sell the next making profits
the entry price has to be right//
easier said then done.. once you start chasing a falling market, the only thing you will end up is burning your fingers
btw Rural electrification decided the price band as 105 and is expected to list on 13-14
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 25, 2008 @ 3:58 pm
premium of 10 to 25 bucks? if mkts dont tank from here
Comment by prax — February 25, 2008 @ 4:18 pm
and considering that everybody would get more than 2 lots, this is quite a sum….
check your mailbox, i have dropped a mail
BTW i also bought some options of Rajesh Exports… any idea why this stock has taken such a beating? (its at a PE of 5 right now)
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 25, 2008 @ 9:53 pm
no clue
Comment by prax — February 26, 2008 @ 1:11 am
why dont u put ur purch rate instead of no of shares ?
so u did read the link i sent u - i see ur updated pf
cleared ur ntpc ? what rate?
Comment by Prax — February 26, 2008 @ 7:35 pm
sp neg on r exports
http://sptulsian.com/stock-query.html
Comment by Prax — February 26, 2008 @ 8:02 pm
Await upmove upto 128-139 sooner may be tomorrow. hold it for long as results are strong. Tgt is 200+ in a year’s time, with bonus allotment, it may fall to low side tgt of 81
Comment by Playsafe — February 26, 2008 @ 8:53 pm
@prax…
at the moment my current holding is at a loss, or a minor profit. but once i get my act together and have a couple of stocks which i had purchased at a significant discount, i will surely advertise my purchase price to prove my prudence :p
i exited from NTPC at 204 and gujurat ambuja at 125 (8k of profits in 2 weeks)
i also purchased some more saamaya biotech and taking a clue from the link from your moneylife article also bought 100 shares of Kesoram Industries (thanks)
about rajesh exports. i could not sell it today, tomorrow i will see if i could find a buyer at 125 (futures are at a significant discount, and the stock has taken a huge beating… hence i bought it)
@play…
i have no idea which stock are you talking about
Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 27, 2008 @ 1:47 am
pnl are a part of the game -
thankfully urnt in up or bihar or ud be abducted for ransom
if someone looked at ur pf a month back in jan
i think r e was a split and bonus play - no wonder the beating
Comment by Prax &#