Trading Calls « ENagar

Trading Calls

This page is maintained by Ram and Prax. It contains the various tips, technical analysis and trading calls they have to share. Fundamental research and my views can be sought in Stock Chat

111 Comments »

Cool!
I can’t offer any analysis, unless they are the anal part of the word! Otherwise, I will use this place that you have so kindly provided for what I have heard or done in relation to equities.
As of today, I bought Sujana Metal @ 44.50. Watch this one: looks set to zoom. Some predict it to be reaching 150! Sounds very optimistic, but its not unknown, after all!

Comment by rambodoc — January 9, 2008 @ 9:44 pm
ya the stock looks attractive (esp after it goes below 40)… i am tracking this one thanks

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 9, 2008 @ 10:59 pm
Last heard today, Sujana is poised for a target of 200.
Anyways, whether you believe it or not, it will be interesting to see.
HDIL and NELCO seem to be good buys. Agree?

Comment by rambodoc — January 10, 2008 @ 6:45 pm
i have put all my money in essar oil… if it goes to 250 before 31st then i can buy a car… if not.. i will lose one but the promising change was that today it breached the 300 mark

HDIL is a good company (i applied for its IPO)… nelco is into metals… which is always too cyclical.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 10, 2008 @ 10:00 pm
Can you explain the Essar Oil thing: didn’t understand it. A Futures thing? I know nothing about it. Any tips on how I can understand this (site, etc.)?
NELCO is a Tata company supplying the Defence. I am not talking of NALCO.

Comment by rambodoc — January 10, 2008 @ 10:41 pm
NELCO…
hmm.. i had heard about it in sptulsian… it might be a good long term bet…. don’t know about the short term.
man u have started investing in A group companies.

i will write a post on it this weekend on futures and derivatives…..
the gist is that if u invest in futures
then you would 1) pay only 5-10% of the trade value upfront. so even a 5-10% movement in stock can double ur investment.
2) you will get all the profits if the shares go in your direction, if not then ur losses would be capped to the premium you had payed (i.e. you get to minimize the losses)

as a trader, its one of the most valuable tool… u get u learn it.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 11, 2008 @ 12:04 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/commentary/mukherjee.html

the article is the first one

Comment by Prax — January 11, 2008 @ 4:35 am
sometimes even the most calculated strategy goes wrong.
I had anticipated that because of recession and oncoming of spring, the oil demand will go down drastically and the oil prices will go down. Hence i had short sold a lot of cairn shares….
http://news.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=320808
but instead of making money, this nigerian crisis resulted in oil reaching 100$ and immediately after i squared off the contract (and book 10k of losses) the oil prices started falling (just as i had anticipated)….
sometimes you are just plain unlucky.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 11, 2008 @ 5:23 pm
did u sell manishka ?
it is also at disc of 10 now

Comment by Prax — January 14, 2008 @ 1:07 pm
no i got greedy. it was at 173 on the listing day.. so i put a trigger at 175… which it never touched
neways… its part of the game.. and it taught me a valuable lesson.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 14, 2008 @ 1:24 pm
one more things never put triggers on 175 or 174.99
most people think alike better to do it at 174.65 85 etc

Comment by prax — January 14, 2008 @ 1:58 pm
tata sponge (PE of looks like a good buy
http://money.rediff.com/money/jsp/company.jsp?companyCode=15560006
the company was in bad shape last year, but since then it has improved its margins profitability and production volumes

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 14, 2008 @ 3:52 pm
The SBI board on Monday approved issue of about 10.5 crore shares on a rights basis to raise Rs 16,736.31 crore. In terms of size, this is perhaps second to ICICI Bank’s follow-on public issue of Rs 20,000 crore – Rs 10,000 crore raised domestically and Rs 10,000 crore through an ADR issue.

The ratio for the SBI rights issue is one share for every five shares held as on the record date on February 4, 2008.
On Monday, shares of SBI closed at Rs 2,462.25 on the BSE, against the previous close of Rs 2,437.25.

so what say u worth a subs at 35% disc and would u purch now or wait for the current mkt price to fall a bit?

Comment by prax — January 15, 2008 @ 3:17 am
its a rights issue and not a free market purchase or FPO….
so if you have SBI shares then you have to subscribe to subscribe to it.. else you will see erosion of your value.
if you do not have any sbi shares… then you could buy some before the record date and save some taxes by booking some paper losses.. but apart from that the fundamentals of the company (before or after the rights issue) remains the same…
immediately after the rights issue the prices would adjust to accommodate the 6th share so its actually not a real discount.

Do you know how much percentage is the govt holding at SBI? if you remove that number from 16K Cr, you will end up with just another big issue.
in a couple of days i will write a post elaborating the difference between fpo and rights issue.

i have just written a post highlighting these points…

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 15, 2008 @ 6:48 am
i know what ur talkg about

what i asked is does one buy now or wait a bit for the sbi stock to fall before u purchase so as to be eligible for the issue
it is about timing and valuation

Comment by Prax — January 15, 2008 @ 5:22 pm
its always best to buy on 5th feb (the record date)… because a lot of traders would like to book paper losses…. but then that would be a trading call.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 15, 2008 @ 5:26 pm
i think trrow is a vital day if the dow tanks too then the mkts will too
then things will look attractive ….

Comment by Prax — January 22, 2008 @ 2:51 pm
i beg to differ…
its Bears Vs Individuals (directly or through MF)

looking at my office, somehow i have a feeling that people have still not lost faith… novice in my office seems to be pumping money into SIPs/ULIPs and MF, the more intellegent ones are just buying with whatever they can lay their hands on… a few of them have even applied for personal loans.
Markets had crashed similarly in August, but I did not see the same kind of confidence which I am seeing today.

but i agree that liquidity is still a problem. today’s opening crash has practically wiped out all the fortunes of the leveraged buyers. and I do not think FII are in the position to increase their positions substantially….

PS: I am regretting the fact that i had squared off my short selling positions in Essar Oil and Cairn… If I had not squared them off, then instead of being able to buy 1 Nano, I would be in position to buy 5 of them

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 22, 2008 @ 3:10 pm
im a bit more cautious
so ill do buying trrow cause trrow is mostly where i see a big buy

Comment by Prax — January 22, 2008 @ 3:30 pm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/60910-black-tuesday

people are also posting about the same

Comment by Prax — January 22, 2008 @ 3:51 pm
best of luck….
i hope you and people who think like you infuse enough liquidity that the market recovers soon.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 22, 2008 @ 4:11 pm
just as I had suspected… the US market won’t be bearish about indian stocks.
in spite of the fact that indian markets were falling for past 2 days…
Infy, Wipro are up
HDFC, ICICI, Tata motors are still at a premium from the indian closing …

plus with the HNI issuing stop payments
http://www.livemint.com/2008/01/23001139/Reliance-Power-applicants-rus.html
the liquidity should be back in the market
so looks like the worst is over .. HURRAY!!!!!!!!!!

BTW prax… what all did u shop?

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 23, 2008 @ 12:49 am
hey ankur i must admit
u time the markets better than me full points to u
next time leave me a msg in my investg page whenever u have ur sell and buy or sudden hunches

i had told u about the rel power mess didnt i?
mostly the stock should open close to par levels
but im also a bit wary

i didnt shop anything sadly cause my comp and my cousins comp
both seemed to have problems and the mkt climbed a bit too much too soon

the fact that the fed has done a 75 bp cut and is expected to do anther 50
points to the desperation and almost certain us recession …i expect a bigger fall after this pullback rally something like a pre budget fall what do u think

im also wondering about the conspicuous absence of rambodoc from this forum

Comment by Prax — January 24, 2008 @ 11:08 am
//u time the markets better than me full points to u//
thanks
but I am still sitting with a 12L worth of stocks. so lets not count the chickens before they hatch.
I have already sold 600 omaxe, 1500 SCI and 60 TCS, and tomorrow I plan to square off my positions in stalwarts like Edelweiss.

//next time leave me a msg in my investg page whenever u have ur sell and buy or sudden hunches//
I think the market is volatile and will continue to remain so till about a week after the budget. It has not yet touched it bottom.. and should retest it again.

honestly losing 1.3L in secondary market left me shaken. and I was also half crazy to make 11L purchase and make myself over exposed, and vulnerable.
So, I was in no position to talk over the phone, leave alone blog…..
but next time sure I would leave a message.

//i had told u about the rel power mess didnt i?//
I agree and I continued to ignore it and expensive mistake, but a valuable lesson.
i guess i went with the flow of the market and fell into the trap. anyways none of his stock are fundamentally strong enough to be added to the portfolio. so sale on first hour, irrespective of the pricing.

//i didnt shop anything sadly //
my father was also traveling hence he could not make any purchases… but i feel that there r still a lot of good mid caps where u can park some funds.

//cause my comp and my cousins comp both seemed to have problems and the mkt climbed a bit too much too soon//
its time to encash some of your profits and buy a good laptop… Apple recently released a state of the art machine, go check that one out.

//the fact that the fed has done a 75 bp cut and is expected to do anther 50
points to the desperation and almost certain us recession //
its a recipe for stagflation….
the problem with the market today is that banks are too scared to lend… and no matter how much interest rates u cut, you cannot change their instincts that in times like this, its better to stay with piles of cash.

//…i expect a bigger fall after this pullback rally something like a pre budget fall what do u think//
honestly, don’t do any purchase till budget…. although i expect the budget to be good for the market, but the volatility is so much that risk won’t be worth the benefits…
The problem on my plate is that I need to systematically offload another 6L worth of stocks over the next 1-2 weeks. and I am in no position to survive another bear run.

//im also wondering about the conspicuous absence of rambodoc from this forum//
i had left a comment on his blog, looks like he is busy with work…
i just hope his portfolio has recovered.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 24, 2008 @ 2:40 pm
hey i make computers for a hobby and laptops naa too boring lugging it around difficulties upgrading and and an invitation for dvt and back pain (which i dont want to increase)

the fact is my cousins comp was aflicted by a large amt of viruses necessitating a level 5 heuristic scan thru my kasp av which meant my comp was blocked too plus i was expecting the us mkts to fall but they didnt and it worried me again
on reliance power//
mostly the damn stock will open close to 450 i expect
then god knows wats to happen

on doc// i read his blog i love his spirit !!

square off my positions in stalwarts like Edelweiss.// please explain??
what have u done with ipo stocks ?

im a bit bullish on sbi if it manages to merge its siblings
eventually there will be value unlocking from that
fundamentally good a group stocks are the way to go else everythin else should now be trading bets

us mkts r up after bushspeak

Comment by Prax — January 24, 2008 @ 9:50 pm
i figure, my reply has gone into spam

Comment by prax — January 25, 2008 @ 12:11 am
honestly losing 1.3L in secondary market left me shaken. and I was also half crazy to make 11L purchase and make myself over exposed, and vulnerable.
So, I was in no position to talk over the phone, leave alone blog…..
but next time sure I would leave a message.

true i know the fealing
i lost somethin of that sort in the tech boom and bust

Comment by prax — January 25, 2008 @ 12:12 am
//i lost somethin of that sort in the tech boom and bust//
but this bust has helped me realize that 5-6L is the ideal portfolio for me… its big enough to keep the interest on, and yet small enough that it won’t give me any nightmares. so the only agenda for the next 1-2 weeks would be to bring the size back to normal.

//hey i make computers for a hobby and laptops naa too boring lugging it around difficulties upgrading and and an invitation for dvt and back pain (which i dont want to increase)//
wow… thats an interesting hobby. i am surrounded by laptops, pdas and desktops all the time (see the latest post), but personally my main machine is a desktop…. laptop keys r too small for getting used to.

//the fact is my cousins comp was aflicted by a large amt of viruses necessitating a level 5 heuristic scan thru my kasp av which meant my comp was blocked too //
neways.. another day of fall would have made it all look so much worthwhile.

//plus i was expecting the us mkts to fall but they didnt and it worried me again//
my first lesson in investing,… you can never time the market… so buy when the prices r good enough.

//mostly the damn stock will open close to 450 i expect
then god knows wats to happen//
if i get my investment back, thats good enough.

//i read his blog i love his spirit !!//
well if you look at his professional life, he has been through tighter positions.

#square off my positions in stalwarts like Edelweiss.// please explain??#
i have sold 6L worth of shares today, and plan to sell another 4L worth of shares tomorrow… and unless i make that sale, i cannot claim any credit for perfectly timing the market.

//what have u done with ipo stocks ?//
nothing, anyways most of it will be refunded, so i do not care too much.

//im a bit bullish on sbi if it manages to merge its siblings
eventually there will be value unlocking from that
fundamentally good a group stocks are the way to go else everythin else should now be trading bets//
the stock is good, i think i will buy it in the next crash…

//us mkts r up after bushspeak//
lets c… buy US market was down all the time yesterday and in the last 15 minutes became bullish… so who knows maybe today also it might be too precarious…. actually this much of exposure has made me too much nervous…. i thought i could handle it, but the stress is just too much.
BTW i had celebrated the market recovery today in Royal Orchid… I had just returned and I am almost drunk.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 25, 2008 @ 12:37 am
ones one true companion is suffering …
Buddha had said something on those lines

nyways hope the spirits lightened up ur mood and u had a nice night

Comment by prax — January 25, 2008 @ 1:03 am
what was the exact quote of Buddha?

BTW u were right, NASDAQ went up by almost 2% and so did our technology stocks

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 25, 2008 @ 2:04 am
so did u do the selling ?

Comment by Prax — January 25, 2008 @ 10:16 pm
200 edelweiss
300 NTPC
80 Apollo hospitals

my total holdings r a half of what they were on Tuesday evening

next week i intend to sell another 200 SCI stocks and then move all the sales proceeds back to FD.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 25, 2008 @ 10:26 pm
i just bought a cool nokia phone as a thank you gift for the guy who helped me time the market

btw did you look at the us market, it opened almost 1.9% up, but soon fell underwater

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 26, 2008 @ 1:03 pm
guy who helped me time the market

ur dad or ur broker?

Comment by Prax — January 26, 2008 @ 6:06 pm
I don’t have a broker, or pay any attention to the hot tips they give….
and my father never see and eye to eye when it comes to the kind of investments i make… esp in the derivatives, and the risky trades (he has been successfully beating the sensex constantly year after year for the last 25 years…. that too by trading at max once a month)
no this phone is for a friend who helped me mobilize the cash.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 26, 2008 @ 9:43 pm
aah
with all the brokerages talking about relationships i just added it for dramatic effect

Comment by Prax — January 26, 2008 @ 11:39 pm
well the only relationship i know of is the margin calls and by no means that is pleasant.

http://www.saharasamay.com/samayhtml/articles.aspx?newsid=93614
I have a feeling that since India’s Forex is already 283 billion dollars, it might be prudent to put a small bet that interest rates will fall in line with the Fed cuts.

BTW, do you know any good Exchange traded Debt Fund.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 27, 2008 @ 12:13 am
none that i know of

inflation is a big negative plus the adv tax pressure of corporates will come
so difficult for banks to cut now
bt general trend world over should be down

saw gold rates they r on fire

Comment by Prax — January 28, 2008 @ 12:44 am
//bt general trend world over should be down//
that is why i want to bet in that trend too….

//saw gold rates they r on fire//
yups,… and i also recollect advising u against it
i hope u ignored my advise.

BTW: today I booked losses in Ranbaxy, Brigade, clutch auto and Manaksia
sold ICICI Bank and half of Apollo Hospitals

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 28, 2008 @ 2:49 pm
on gold
sadly i listened to u- i also fell for the same ploy that
everything is ok in the us of a and there can be decoupling

im building a yahoo pf
the kind of stats data and tech data u get is mind boggling
no compulsions on this one but
tell me 5 good stocks u think i should put in the watchlist from each sector

Comment by prax — January 28, 2008 @ 6:33 pm
Im making a list will mail it to u
u could then chk out and send me ur ideas

Comment by prax — January 28, 2008 @ 7:00 pm
last time i checked yahoo, a lot of stocks were not there.. rest had numbers instead of names to identify them…
but yes yahoo’s data for USA stocks is great and if u get even half of that kind of depth, then u should go for it.

//tell me 5 good stocks u think i should put in the watchlist from each sector///
dude that would be an overkill…. it would mean atleast 100 stocks that u will keep track of…

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 28, 2008 @ 7:44 pm
Alok Industries Ltd. 72.55
Alps Industries 61.30 *
Ambuja Cements Ltd. 115.05
Apollo Hospitals 497.00
Asian Granito India 81.00
Barak Valley Cements 52.60
Bharat Earth Mov 1,356.00
Bharat Forge Ltd 280.35
Bharat Petroleum 392.10
Bharti Airtel 869.70
Cairn India Ltd. 191.90
Cinemax India 109.10 *
Cipla 184.60
Clutch Auto 87.75
Edelweiss Capital Lt 1,013.95
Essar Oil Ltd. 234.90
GAIL India Ltd. 439.50
GNFC 180.55
Granules India L 83.00
Hind. Motor 52.05 *
ICICI Bank 1,273.70 *
ITC Ltd. 196.35
Indian Hotels Co 140.20
Infosys Techno. 1,446.50
KCP Ltd. 586.15
KLG Systel Limit 746.50
KPR Mill Ltd. 135.00 *
Karuturi Networks Lt 260.20
L & T 3,844.50
Maruti Udyog 862.60
Mundra Port & Specia 820.90
NTPC 212.85
Oriental Bank of 281.25
Punj. NationlBak 683.70
Ranbaxy Labs. 350.40
Reliance Energy Ltd. 2,097.70
Reliance Petroleum 168.30
Saamya Biotech (Indi 18.95
Shipping Corpn. 228.25
Su-RajDiamonds&Jewel
TTK Prestige L 135.10
Taj GVK Hotels & Res 140.50
Tata Chemicals 333.95 * 321.35
Tata Consultancy 854.20
Tata Motors Ltd. 714.70
Tata Steel 698.40

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 28, 2008 @ 7:46 pm
my idea was to monitor their 50 and 200dma
that is a great way of finding out whats hot or not

i didnt want to monitor them on a daily basis nyways

yes yahoo does have some problems but the data given is far
better than nything available here

how good is rediff
moneycontrol is a big monstrocity

Comment by Prax — January 29, 2008 @ 1:10 am
indian market is already too volatile, that i would say that if u can track the A group shares, that is good enough….

in the print media, the listing given in mint is the best.
online:
moneycontrol.. great for news… but sucks when it comes to charting… too slow and unreadable..

rediff… their drawback is that they do not have news updates for stocks. charting is ok.. but the balance sheets is a big plus.

yahoo… (US website is exceptional).. esp the insider transaction, charting and analysts opinion… plus they have an alert system where they give u an email when there is too much price movement…. which is unmatched.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 29, 2008 @ 1:37 am
i was looking at parking places for funds liked
hdfc hi stg fnd - templeton tata and birla r good to
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=1204
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=1398
avg yr rtn 10% +

gilt rths r shockingly hi 10 to 15%

Comment by prax — January 30, 2008 @ 4:42 am
Tata Short Term Bond-G (2nd link) looks good.
Tell me one thing.. is it advisable to invest in debt fund instead of FDs (a significant portion of my portfolio is in FDs)
the benefit is that breaking of FD is very expensive and you lose almost half of the interest…. but Debt fund can give u negative returns when the interest rates goes up.

about gilt… i still cannot understand commodity market so i would stay away from it.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 30, 2008 @ 9:55 am
with ur kinda sal it does make sense
as fd means 30% slab in tax
while if u take a div plan u get tfree dividend
the growth plan will put u under st cap gains which would be similar to fd
as it will be added to income assuming that it is less than a yr, holding.

benefits u have mentioned are there plus there are bond fnds that float
gilt is govt sec based fund mkt so where do commoditys come in the picture

Comment by Prax — January 30, 2008 @ 12:40 pm
//gilt is govt sec based fund mkt so where do commoditys come in the picture//
i mean to say is that gilt prices fluctuate with the international gold prices. and i am not even a novice in timing it.

I tried timing oil prices, but it blew on my face. (and the moment i squared off the losses, the prices started moving in the opposite direction).
but yes gold, oil and silver look very attractive.. and they look like a challenge at the moment. All i want to do is attach myself to an expert and learn in his guidance. (even a good book can be a good mentor)

//with ur kinda sal it does make sense//
naah my salary is just peanuts, its only the stock market that enables me make my ends meet. Plus all this money is from the clearance sale which i have been holding for last 7 days.
Sold another 50 Edelweiss shares

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 30, 2008 @ 1:45 pm
i think gilt mkts r based on govt securities not gold
do chk it out …ask ruhi

Comment by Prax — January 30, 2008 @ 10:43 pm
my mistake….
i went by the definition of gilt (which is gold) … but as per investopedia it is
“A mutual fund that invests in several different types of medium and long-term government securities in addition to top quality corporate debt. Gilts originated in Britain.”
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/giltfund.asp

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 30, 2008 @ 11:34 pm
second hand idea

Riddhi Siddhi Gluco Biols
http://www.business-standard.com/general/storypage.php?&autono=311783

Comment by prax — January 31, 2008 @ 11:19 am
fixing the link:
http://www.business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=0&subLeft=2&chklogin=N&autono=311783&tab=r

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 31, 2008 @ 11:31 am
the stock might be good, but let me be the devil’s advocate….
1) in spite of having a good market cap of 271cr and a free float of 60% of the shares, why does it still belong to the S category?
2) The share has not made money for the investors in the past 1 year (in spite of the bull run in the sensex)
3) Balance sheet does not show a break up of the costs. (everything is clubbed under other expenses) http://money.rediff.com/money/jsp/co_results_annual.jsp?companyCode=17020195
4) i suspect that the increase in revenues is not due to new clients/volume but due to price rise of corn/starch.
5) the promoter holding is steadily falling

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 31, 2008 @ 12:12 pm
thats why the second hand thanks nyways for the quick analysis
didnt have the time to chk

Comment by prax — January 31, 2008 @ 4:21 pm
i thought u were planning to put ur money in it (because the market and esp this stock was down today)….
neways u can always put 10-15k of risk capital in it.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — January 31, 2008 @ 4:33 pm
sorry if i wasted ur time on this one

Comment by Prax — February 1, 2008 @ 1:31 am
come on i have to analyze 10 stocks before i zero down to one…
and one of the reason why i blog is that whenever people find a good stock, they keep me in the loop

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 1, 2008 @ 9:58 am
ok next time i promise i will be more judicious this is a promise

Comment by Prax — February 1, 2008 @ 12:41 pm
i think fmcg will be great if there is recession stuff like itc hll nirma etc
will get more demand

what about woolens i would think with such cold winters sales should be good
this is just a hunch

Comment by Prax — February 1, 2008 @ 12:47 pm
woolen stock… which one??????

HLL and Nirma….
the entire decade their revenues r flat, the no of units they sell are also not increasing. it has been growing at the pace of inflation… so i won’t go anywhere near that share

ITC…
that makes sense..
they have made huge investments in E-Choupal, contract farming etc…. so i believe that they r the only ones who would make money when the retail guys start fighting….
i had a lot of ITC purchased at 150, but i was greedy and sold it at 190 (when reliance and Walmart were facing opposition)…. but its never too late to re-enter (but u need to have 1yr time frame in mind)

BTW sold all the TCS, INFY and Omaxe stocks…. finally my portfolio is of the right size

Hey tell me how does one book the Tata Short Term Bonds. I am thinking of parking 3L there for 6 months… and unless i apply to the company website directly.. all my profits would be lost in commissions.
http://www.tatamutualfund.com/transact-online.asp could not locate any link to fund applications

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 1, 2008 @ 1:31 pm
id been to the tata office near bby house of tatas
it is a regular mf

C.G.Vidyadhar / Chitra Ramesh
Address # 4/6, Millers Road, High Grounds, Bangalore – 560052.
Telephone 080-66561313/65335986/65335987
Fax - 080-22370512/22370513
Email - tmfblr@gmail.com

u will have to submit a form with Direct in the agents code
frankly it really doesnt matter as there is no load on inc funds
—please confirm this

add a copy of ur pan card too once they start online service u need to take
a login and then trade direct hdfcmf has already started it

Comment by prax — February 1, 2008 @ 4:53 pm
call up for the form

Comment by prax — February 1, 2008 @ 4:53 pm
finally my portfolio is of the right size

this may not be that bad - if one has a strategy
but rnt u putting too many eggs in a basket ?

Comment by prax — February 1, 2008 @ 5:01 pm
Thanks…
nobody is picking up the phone.. i will call those lazy bums again on monday….

although RBI has refused to reduce the rates, i have a feeling that in 2-3 months the revision is bound to happen. what do u say?

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 1, 2008 @ 5:02 pm
//but rnt u putting too many eggs in a basket ?//
my comfort zone is a portfolio of 6L. On black tuesday, i pumped in a lot of cash..so I was busy withdrawing money from the market.

neways.. 3L of profits for a month’s work is not bad. (esp when the index went down by 11%)

//this may not be that bad - if one has a strategy//
The stocks which i am holding, should not go down any further….
however now i am sitting with cash and am patiently waiting for a right opportunity to come.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 1, 2008 @ 5:29 pm
im shifting this to stk chat

Comment by prax — February 1, 2008 @ 5:42 pm
Hey, guys, no GMR Infra in that list? It is supposed to be the next L&T!

Comment by rambodoc — February 2, 2008 @ 5:44 am
yes GMR is a great company, but the problem is that the whole world knows about it.
Hence it is trading at a PE of few hundreds and is fully priced

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 2, 2008 @ 6:11 am
nyways gmr is making more noise than construction
i read a piece on how bad the delhi airport conditions are
for the people and only visible signs of change are the gmr boards
and adds signs promising a bright future

Comment by Prax — February 2, 2008 @ 3:36 pm
poor quality is a sureshot recipe of a disaster… and i have a feeling that half of the so called infra companies will go under.

neways its too late now to buy an infra stock…
and with BSE oscillating by 3-4% every day, its time to wait and watch as a by stander for a month or so

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 2, 2008 @ 7:43 pm
rel power ipo opng on 11th
did u get the refund and allotments i got mine hdfc
16 shares as expected

Comment by Prax — February 5, 2008 @ 6:24 am
http://enagar.com/stock-chat/#comment-35050
i got 17 shares….
good lets c what happens next monday

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 5, 2008 @ 6:57 am
lucky this time or not maybe
150/175 premium is what the street says

Comment by Prax — February 5, 2008 @ 7:33 am
is there a way i can get this price before actual listing….
whom do these brokers actually pay the grey market premium?

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 5, 2008 @ 8:27 am
not that i know of
plus there is an element of risk in such transactions as they become essentially off mkt or benami- reliance listing will be interesting nonetheless…

Comment by Prax — February 5, 2008 @ 8:29 pm
http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/blockdeals/index.php
Over the past few weeks i have seen that before a major spur in prices, there r a couple of block deals in that stock… (but the reverse is not necessarily true)
have you also seen this co-relation?

I was thinking that in our next entry we might be able to use this data for our advantage…. if it works great… else its a learning

BTW REC is opening on19th Feb. whats your take?

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 7, 2008 @ 4:53 pm
REC is opening on19th Feb ??? didnt get u

on block deals there could be some genuine change of hands in some stocks but in most small stocks it could be price rigging and operator play …
today things went down on small volumes ..

on rel power
im keeping my eyes open as the premiums are vanishing in reliance power, but this is as much about ADAs credibility, and that of the rating agency crisil as its about the listing and future of the big ipos mkt - so they would be using all their influence so as to try and list it at a good premium ….

did u chk on the stats thrown up on investment patterns of indians
we save a lot and a lot of it in cash ! stocks get only 5%
little doubt as people know one thing - scamsters r never or seldom brought to books, i see turbulent markets n roller coaster rides

Comment by Prax — February 7, 2008 @ 5:53 pm
http://moneycontrol.com/india/news/ipoissuesopen/ruralelectrificationcorporationrec/recipoopensfeb19pricebandatrs90105/market/stocks/article/325188

its a IPO of Rural electrification company a non banking financial giant.

//in most small stocks it could be price rigging and operator play …//
exactly… and the trend i am seeing is that there are a couple of block deals (to suck up the excess liquidity) and then the price shoots up… but i am unable to make a good trading strategy out of it.

//Rel power//
since u and I can never get the grey market premium.. i doubt the genuineness of the stats it throws.
http://www.greymarket.co.in/index.php

//about indian savings//
yet Indians do save about 30% of the GDP every year, but then most of it goes in property. As we were discussing over our debate over mutual funds… Stocks r too risky and indian markets r too volatile that unless someone can commit himself to check the market at least once a week and has a portfolio of more than 4 stocks, he is bound to lose his shirt.
however whats the source of your latest stat of 5%. does it include the mf industry.. Last I checked there were more than 3500 mfs and the industry is doubling every year (partially on account of 40% growth in the fund size and new subscription)

and i do not foresee any reversal in this trend in the near future.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 7, 2008 @ 6:10 pm
http://www.livemint.com/2008/02/07005219/Household-earnings-amp-savin.html
if you are referring to this data, then I must say.. it does not make any sense….

1) How can investments in stock market /mutual funds be so small, when
india’s stock market has a market cap of 1.5 trillion dollars and
mutual fund industry (which FIIs do not invest in) is doubling every
year?
2) A house ownership cost is about 3-5 years of the household’s
earnings. Then in event of a housing boom, how can investment in
physical assets be so low?
3) Am I confusing myself between savings and investments? To be
investments is money spend out of savings /Debts for asset building.
But I am not sure how the economics treat it.
4) Thanks to high interest rates and the fact that every village is
covered by a post office, I would have expected that at least in rural
areas, the share of post office savings be higher than that of banks.

5) In the insurance section (towards the end of the tables)
there is a column about Premium income ratio (%). What does that mean?

Comment by ankur — February 7, 2008 @ 10:27 pm
well keeping funds at home in cash has other meaning too
it could be used to fuel a different economy of chit funds, pvt moneylending etc and gold which is much more paying
the real india is still essentially rural

high val clearing is only met in certain areas in mumbai not even in the whole of city , and transactions take too long to process in rural areas
worse the rigor of kyc means rural folks shun big and psu banks and vice versa
while regional rural banks, coops are commonly used. this from understanding banking system of our ex sec guard who wanted my help to prepare a dd and hailed from burdwan district in bengal (now under the bird flu scare)
there is perpetual currency and deposit shortage, and bank managers rule the roost in terms on giving loans.

A house ownership need is essentially an urban phenomenon - essentially stemming from migration from a rural area to the city this i thinks cause everyone already has a house in rural areas , or else there are govt schemes promising housing for the poor and landless, plus shantys can come up everywhere and for those people the basics like food and clothing matter more.

every village is covered by a post office - r u sure maybe at district level but i doubt the village statement

Premium income ratio now ur guess is as good as mine
it could be households that pay out of pocket in comparison to all households wherein govt pays or it could be urban in comparison to all nothing is clearly stated

Comment by Prax — February 8, 2008 @ 2:41 am
on the rec issue
does it have earnings prospects in comparison to others
or will it be another ongc ?
lets see how it is subscribed in the initial days

Comment by Prax — February 8, 2008 @ 2:54 am
//well keeping funds at home in cash has other meaning too//
now it makes sense

//A house ownership need is essentially an urban phenomenon //
even better.. but the holding in physical assets should be larger than the construction industry at least.

//every village is covered by a post office - r u sure maybe at district level but i doubt the village statement//
there is at least a traveling postman… so the nearest post office cannot be more than a bicycle ride away… so there would be in essence more post office branches than banks in rural india… and i believe people will prefer PO over cooperatives just because of sovereign guarantee.

but then its all hunches.. i have no real data to refute mint’s claims…. i will see if i could dig out some good data from economic survey of india

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 8, 2008 @ 6:59 am
REC….

1) Its clients r State electricity boards. It charges any interest rate it wants because nobody else wants to lend to it.
2) a small portion of the portfolio goes to power companies, but it faces so stiff competition from banks that i do not see the exposure rising substantially.
3) The real ticket to fame is that its cost of funds is 6.5%… (which is odd because even FD costs 8.5%) it is also unsustainable
4) To reduce the cost of funds, the bank is borrowing money from abroad (high risk proposition.. in event of INR depreciation)

Basically as long as govt support is there to keep SEB solvent, REC would do great…. once its withdrawn, it will go under. and NBFC r rarely strong enough to compete against banks in lending. and 2009 onwards when international banks will start operating, i think the entire NBFC will start disappearing.

but u can always apply for listing gains.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 8, 2008 @ 7:07 am
ok what is the guarantee that the state wont intervene to make rec subsidise the states ??? as in case of ongc etc ie upstream oil cos - the subsidy burden is capped at 33% due to the oil india issue - the burden could go higher

on low cost foreign debt - yes that can worry but for the next yr i dont see any problem as dollar is said to be weak .only yen and other currency debt can be risky as some small and med enterprises are realising quite late.

long as govt support is there to keep SEB solvent- this is a big mess and this cant go on in perpetuity - this can potentially ruin states
i dont quit like this issue that much but lets see how it is priced and wht is the response let the mkt decide

Comment by Prax — February 8, 2008 @ 12:25 pm
yes i totally agree with your assessment and the fact that it is not a portfolio stock.. but i thought u invested largely for listing gains

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 8, 2008 @ 2:10 pm
//Premium income ratio now ur guess is as good as mine//
i pinged Ruhi, it is the ratio of Insurance Premium paid to the income of the household.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 9, 2008 @ 8:52 am
ah yes only a financial analyst can guage it

Comment by Prax — February 9, 2008 @ 10:38 am
is it time to short mkts when things go up? is this gettin to look like the bear mkts

Comment by Prax — February 9, 2008 @ 10:39 am
plus the budget gotta be analysed - i expect something populist as congi is in doldrums with their nergs so which industries will profit is what we got to see
i got my estimates of ipo wdls bang on

Comment by Prax — February 9, 2008 @ 11:02 am
stay away from the fno and margin trading… markets r too volatile and hence too risky.
but personally i feel that 17.5 is a good valuation around which the market will oscillate for the next month or so

congrats…what is wdls?

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 9, 2008 @ 11:19 am
withdrawals of ipos emmar and wockhart

Comment by Prax — February 9, 2008 @ 12:09 pm
nothing to celebrate about though
looks like the doc has just posted on his blog

Comment by Prax — February 9, 2008 @ 12:27 pm
that was a really good prediction… I somehow always felt that somehow Emmar would go through.

what do u think about Rel Powe…. will i be able to sell it at 500+ on monday?

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 9, 2008 @ 12:27 pm
two interesting pics in tools
havent analysed them but theyr makin nw highs
taparia tools and kulkarni power tools
ny indian electrical contractor cant do without them
competition from china canbe prob

Comment by prax — February 22, 2008 @ 4:43 am
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/machine-tools/kulkarni-power-tools/04/39/KPT01

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/machine-tools/kulkarni-power-tools/04/39/KPT01

Comment by prax — February 22, 2008 @ 4:45 am
one company has a sales of 14cr another 30cr….. and both r near their 52 week high (and jumping 18-20% a day)
with such tiny sales, i doubt what kind of productivity these companies have

plus with NTPC, rec and rel power… i am over exposed to power sector

BTW bought 2000 saamaya biotech and 900 more call options for Reliance Power

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 22, 2008 @ 6:24 am
their products have a premium rating
ask an electrician about taparia and kulkarni drill in mumbai
and ull understand - their products sell more than black and decker etc
rnt u overstreaching on rpower?
plus it would make more sense to post the entry price on ur pf rather than the lot size

Comment by Prax — February 22, 2008 @ 5:18 pm
oops i totally forgot abt the rec issue darn i was supposed to invest into it !

Comment by Prax — February 22, 2008 @ 5:19 pm
and on both cos there can be operator interests as they are small in size

Comment by Prax — February 22, 2008 @ 5:20 pm
I hope you were able to apply in time

//ask an electrician about taparia and kulkarni drill in mumbai//
if they r into retail, then they are already halfway to being bankrupt.. in event of US recession, more and more chineese products would be dumped in india.. and these products r cheaper and better designed that indian (which r usually made using a 40 year old design and fabrication technology))
but i will still go through the stock over the weekend, but usually i don’t invest in a company that is trading above its 30DMA.

//rnt u overstreaching on rpower?//
yes I am also a bit scared and that is why today i just bought options and not futures.
but the only thing is that i wanted to re-enter the market in a grand way…. and Rel Power looked to me most attractive in risk return analysis.

//plus it would make more sense to post the entry price on ur pf rather than the lot size//
that is totally against my philosophy.
Purchase Price, like Face value is of a lot of academic curiosity, but little or no practical use.
for reliance power
Futures were bought at 398 (march ending) and 394 (april ending)
options 28th Feb ending….
SP 410 at 12,300/-
SP 380 at 21,800/-

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 22, 2008 @ 5:48 pm
hey I don’t like these 2 companies at all…. stock is too volatile, one is at a 52 week high when the market is facing recession….
the turnover is too low and its retail business is under serious threat

PS: while analyzing, i always look for reasons why not to invest… and if they r not too many/too grave then I invest

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 22, 2008 @ 6:02 pm
i took them as speculative bets not for investments

nyways how do u see the mkts?? whats ur call

Comment by Prax — February 22, 2008 @ 6:51 pm
Today, an investment guru, Marc Faber, came on CNBC and said that the Sensex would fall to 12,000 or even 10,000 levels. It scared the bejesus outa me. I am thinking of liquidating my stocks that are in the green (hardly any, just a few of my recent investments) and waiting out till Doomsday.

Comment by rambodoc — February 22, 2008 @ 7:25 pm
@prax….
obviously…. i would be a fool to make a long term investment in any of anil’s company…. but still i do not know why i took such a large exposure… i hope it works out.

btw u r talking about Rel Power or the electrical appliance company?
btw my father has a failsafe advise…. if u like the product/services of a company, then go invest in it… because great products make great companies and hence great investments.

@ram…
honestly i have no idea where the markets r heading. and that is why until yesterday, i had almost zero exposure… (and even today i don’t hold any of the pre crash stocks)
but i won’t be that gloomy that the markets would fall to 10-12k levels, but ya i won’t be surprised if it bottoms at 16k.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — February 22, 2008 @ 7:46 pm
faber talks a lot and not all that he says comes true
though u may never know –i really dont see doomsday as our internal economy s robust so is the consumption . But Indians are by nature pessimistic a lot

Comment by prax — February 22, 2008 @ 8:45 pm
what do u think when will bankg scripts like icici and hdfc bk be ripe purchases - i have given up on psu banks these days for obvious reasons

Comment by prax — May 23, 2008 @ 11:23 pm
i won’t invest in a bank that is at PE of 30… (i have holdings in icici because of its group companies)
i would actually prefer mid tier PSU (non SBI) they r at a very low PE and many of them r close to 52 week low.. so they have nowhere to go but up.

hey btw why don’t u try ur hand on banking stock index. that way u can remove the risk of movement of individual stocks and rely on the appreciation across the basket (USUAL DISCLAIMERS, and don’t even think of buying more than 1 futures contract)

PS: the size of loan waiver has increased to 16.7billion USD…. so NPA would fall by that amount…. most of the agri loans were unrecoverable anyways

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 23, 2008 @ 11:35 pm
on psu banks i expect them to take a long time to go up
maybe a full scale chart analysis from 2005 is needed in indl stock picking

on edelweiss and financial brokerages
http://business-standard.com/common/news_article.php?leftnm=si&autono=323319

Comment by Prax — May 24, 2008 @ 1:34 am
keep me updated about what results u come up with…. so that i also buy/sell based on that research.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 24, 2008 @ 1:41 pm
i took your advice and purchased 50 ICICI stocks and also 190 ambuja cement stocks… both for short term.

btw thanks to underdeveloped debt funds markets, we are lucky to have not taken any position on the interest rate getting cut.
http://news.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=339673
SBI Just increased the interest rates and rest of the banks are expected to follow.

Comment by Ankur Aggarwal — May 26, 2008 @ 1:47 pm