In 2009, I invested a substantial amount in ONGC and Cairn, the only 2 oil production companies listed in Indian stock exchange. The oil price more than doubled but even after 2 years i made a measly 20-30% return. Not wanting to repeat my prior folly, I have embarked in a quest of how to gain in the event that Oil prices go up by 2017 (2 years from now)
1. Invest in India. No ways, I am not going to be at the whims and fancies of corrupt bureaucrats/ politicians , their fickle policies and administered price/subsidies
2. Invest in MCX commodity index. the lot size is 100 barrels and due to low margin requirements and leverage of Futures market, I could gain from an effective multi option/futures strategy. However they don’t have contracts with long term expiry and 90 days is too little a time for me. Also either party or the exchange could force a physical delivery or cancel the contract if they suspect speculative trading. WHAT AM I GOING TO DO WITH 100 Barrels, 12,000 Liter of crude oil?
3. CMX or the London commodity exchange. the lot size their is 1000 barrels. So it is an exposure of good $40,000/- USD per contract. Even after 10 years of experience, I don’t have that kind of gamble around money.
4. Hence I am left with the last option of opening and tdameritrade account and invest in blue chip oil companies that stand to gain tremendously with my opportunistic buy low and sell high strategy.
Couple of issues:
1. Account opening needs ITIN/SSN number which I don’t have. Also the account could get frozen and undergo tedious litigation if the documentation is not proper. I always fear the unknown beast.
2. If the Dollar loses its value, I stand to pay taxes on my US dollar gains but might not get any credit on my currency exchange losses. Also due to small sums and the generous dividends paid by the oil companies. I need to manage cash-flows and taxes on this multi year strategy.
3. I need to find a good instrument to back on. Look at the PE ratios and the not so significant difference between the 52 week high and today’s price. How can a commodity company whose unit sale price dipped by 60% without any offsetting increase in volume still command a double digit PE ratio? This is when the PE ratio is for last year and does not reflect the future profitability?
|Name||Last price||Mkt cap||52wk high||52wk low||EPS||P/E|
|Royal Dutch Shell plc…||64.34||202.05B||88.13||62.11||5.09||12.64|
|SEB Brent Crude Oil…||70.98||173.21||74.51|
|Baker Hughes Incorporate…||55.09||23.83B||75.64||47.51||2.96||18.61|
|BP plc (ADR)||36.05||109.61B||53.4825||34.88||2.98||12.11|
|Exxon Mobil Corporation||90.33||382.51B||104.76||86.19||7.95||11.36|
|Royal Dutch Shell plc…||62.93||202.05B||83.42||60.84||5.09||12.36|
BTW do read this good report on US Oil industry